Mark Hughes: F1's Inside Line

Here's the alternative Japanese Grand Prix, the one that went the full distance behind the safety car. The hard points that would have determined the result were played out by lap 15. Here's what would have happened had race control never given that instruction to bring in the silver Merc.

The race got underway with the two McLarens leading the queue behind the safety car. Charlie Whiting noticed immediately that the Ferraris had started on intermediates - against his specific emailed instructions that full wets must be used.

He radioed the team's sporting director, Stefano Domenicali, asked him what the hell they were doing, just as Felipe Massa was spinning, unable to control the car in the treacherous conditions on tyres that couldn't clear the water. The instruction was news to the team, Stefano protested.

"Well, you can stay on them if you like," said Charlie, "but you will be black-and-orange flagged."

So the Ferraris were brought in, Massa at the end of lap two, Raikkonen a lap later. They filled up their fuel tanks while they were there - something that wouldn't have been allowed had they received the black and orange flag given to cars adjudged to be in a dangerous condition.

They rejoined at the back - aside from Tonio Liuzzi, that is, who was a lap down, having sat the Toro Rosso at the end of the pitlane during what the team imagined was the formation lap when in actuality it was the first lap of the race. He'd effectively given the rest of the field a lap's head-start.

Realising their disastrous error, the Toro Rosso team began looking at ways they might make amends. The safety car was lapping in around 2m13s. The race would qualify for full points if it ran to 75 per cent of the scheduled distance - which would bring the race to an end as they completed the 51st lap.

They desperately started doing their sums: at the fuel consumption of a 2m13s lap, what would be the earliest they could pit to get enough fuel in to make it to the end of lap 51? A full tank at this speed, they reckoned, would stretch out for 41 laps. They therefore brought him at the end of his 10th lap, refuelled him to the end and sent him back out.

He was still a lap down, of course. But there was the hope that he would be allowed to unlap himself from the safety car. This is the usual procedure under this year's rules: all lapped traffic is allowed to unlap itself so that the field is lined up in the correct order - though this usually happens only when they are planning to bring the safety car in.

Up at the Spyker pit Mike Gascoyne was doing similar calculations. But he wasn't thinking in terms of 75 per cent distance. He wanted to fuel one of their cars to get to the end if it went to the full distance. For him, lap 13 was the critical one - and Sakon Yamamoto was duly brought in then.

All this strategic repositioning was taking part at the back of the field - for obvious reasons. They had nothing to lose. They were already at the back and at safety car speeds could quickly get back to the end of the snaking pack. Up at the front, teams couldn't afford to risk their positions - in case the safety car came in. Especially nervous were McLaren, for they had fuelled the lightest in order to take on Ferrari in the qualifying battle.

At Ferrari meanwhile, they'd noted the action in the Toro Rosso and Spyker pits and responded. Raikkonen was brought in on lap 15 and fuelled to run to full distance under the safety car, Massa a lap later and fuelled to run 75 per cent distance under the same conditions. This left Massa running ahead of Raikkonen in the queue, still behind everyone except the lapped Liuzzi.

There was potentially some irony in the fact that Ferrari had only been able to adopt a strategy that might enable them to beat McLaren because they'd been told to come into the pits as a penalty for having fitted prohibited tyres. It was an irony not lost on the ever-more anxious McLaren team.

Once the other teams understood what Toro Rosso, Spyker and Ferrari had just done, so they began sacrificing one of their cars to be refuelled too - even cars from the lower midfield. In came Alex Wurz on lap 16 and two laps later he was followed by Rubens Barrichello, Takuma Sato and Jarno Trulli.

So far, this is exactly as happened in reality. But what if instead of the safety car coming in at the end of lap 18 - to the astonishment of most of the drivers who were insisting visibility was way too limited to be racing - it had stayed out? What if no heed had been paid to the McLaren drivers' comments that they were ready to start racing?

What if those comments had been taken as the views of two guys appraised of the situation re Ferrari's refuelling, and how there was no way to avoid falling behind the red cars if the safety car stayed out for too much longer? What if the concern about the safety car itself running out of fuel were discounted?

So now we enter the realms of fantasy. The safety car was indeed marginal on fuel and so a complex choreography involving a reserve driver and the spare safety car was triggered - a fully replenished replacement appeared at the head of the field as Maylander brought the other one in. The McLarens were still sitting one-two, but at the end of the 21st lap Alonso was called in to refuel, followed a lap later by Hamilton.

They rejoined at the back, Alonso now ahead of Hamilton on account of having pitted earlier. McLaren had considered bringing in Lewis first, knowing this would have kept him ahead of his team-mate, but were desperate to prove their commitment to fairness and equality. Alonso was brought in first because he was fuelled a lap shorter.

This left Nick Heidfeld leading the field, BMW now facing the agony that McLaren had just suffered of wondering whether to keep him out in case the safety car came in - or surrender any chance of winning by limiting the damage of the alternative scenario.

Those up at the front who hadn't refuelled dropped like flies until eventually Giancarlo Fisichella had to finally pit out of the lead on lap 50 - agonisingly just one lap short of 75 per cent distance. That completed the fuel stops - and left Yamamoto in the lead!

Lined up behind him were the two Ferraris of Massa and Raikkonen, Wurz, Barrichello, Sato, Trulli, Alonso and Hamilton - the order in which they had pitted, in other words. With no prospect of the conditions improving the race was called at the end of lap 51. With not a single lap of actual racing having been completed - other than in the pits - there was a Japanese winner of the Japanese Grand Prix.

Now the arguments began. Massa had been served notice of a drive-through for regaining positions after he'd gone off on lap two. But a drive-through cannot be served under the safety car so he'd never been able to serve it. Instead he was handed a 60-second penalty - dropping him down to the back and moving those behind him up a place. Liuzzi's team asked why he had not been allowed to unlap himself and was told because the safety car was never at any stage preparing to come in.

McLaren felt it very unfair they should be beaten by Ferrari only because Ferrari had fitted tyres that were forbidden. But what it did to the championship coming into China was intriguing. Instead of Hamilton being 12 points clear, he was ahead by only one from Alonso, with Raikkonen just five points further back than that. Okay, back to reality.