Pre-GP Statistical Analysis: Brazil

There can only be one

Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen will fight for the world championship this weekend in Brazil, with just four points separating the first two, and another three points between the latter two.

The three-way battle offers many permutations for each driver. It goes without saying, though, that all three pretty much cannot rely on any result but a win.

Lewis Hamilton is champion if...

• Win or 2nd - it does not matter how Alonso or Raikkonen end in this case;

• 3rd, 4th or 5th - will take the title only if Alonso fails to win the race.

• 5th and Alonso is 2nd - Hamilton will be champion due to more fifth place finishes: the McLaren teammates will be tied 4-4 on wins, 5-5 on second place finishes, 3-3 on thirds, 1-1 on fourths with Hamilton trumping Alonso 2-1 on fifths.

• 6th - Hamilton becomes champion only if Alonso is no higher than third and Raikkonen does not win.

• 7th and Alonso is 3rd - Hamilton is champion on a count-back to second places, providing Raikkonen does not win.

• 8th - Hamilton takes the title if Alonso is no higher than 4th and Raikkonen 3rd or lower.

• 9th or less - Hamilton can still win the title without scoring, providing Alonso finishes no higher than fifth and Raikkonen is not in the top two.

Fernando Alonso is champion if...

• Win - Alonso will become the first driver since Juan Manuel Fangio in 1957 to win successive titles with different teams if he wins the race and Hamilton is third or lower.

• 2nd - would be enough if Hamilton is sixth or lower. It does not matter if Raikkonen wins.

• 3rd - needs Hamilton to finish 8th or lower, and Raikkonen no higher than 2nd.

• 4th or 5th - needs Hamilton to finish outside the points, and Raikkonen no higher than 3rd.

Kimi Raikkonen is champion if...

• Win - the Finn will clinch his first title if Alonso ends no higher than 3rd and Hamilton is 6th or lower.

• 2nd - Alonso needs to be 4th (Raikkonen leads him 5-4 on race wins) or worse, and Hamilton needs to score only one point.

And in case of a tie...

If Kimi Raikkonen finishes 2nd, Fernando Alonso 4th, and Lewis Hamilton 8th, all three drivers would end the season level on 108 points.

In that case, the title would go to... Raikkonen, on race wins (his five compared to Alonso and Hamilton's four each).

Numbers about numbers

• The last time a car with number 2 carried its driver to the world championship was in 1993, when Alain Prost won with the Williams-Renault. Prost is the only driver to have taken car No. 2 to the world title since season-long fixed numbers were introduced in 1974. He managed to do it three times: in 1985, 1989 and 1993.

• The reigning champion (car No. #1) won the title 5 times in the last 10 years.

• Car No. 6 won the world championship for the last time in 1987 (Nelson Piquet, Williams-Honda), but more interestingly, 25 years ago a Finn driving car No. 6 clinched the title (1982, Keke Rosberg, Williams-Cosworth). In 33 years, these are the only times when the car No. 6 won the title.

Japan into Formula One

With the Formula One racing debut of Kazuki Nakajima, there will be three Japanese drivers at the Brazilian Grand Prix (the others being Takuma Sato and Sakon Yamamoto) for the first time since the 1995 Japanese Grand Prix. At that time, the three drivers were Taki Inoue, Ukyo Katayama and Aguri Suzuki - the latter, however, suffered a bad accident and didn't take part in the event.

To find a Formula One race with three Japanese drivers taking the start, we have to go back one more race, the 1995 Pacific Grand Prix, when the three aforementioned drivers took their place on the grid.

However, it will be interesting to note if Nakajima, Sato and Yamamoto all finish Sunday's race, as never before did three Japanese drivers finish an F1 Grand Prix.

Like father, like son

Kazuki Nakajima is the 12th son of a former Formula One driver to enter a Grand Prix. This is the complete list of father-son relationships to date:

Mario Andretti      Michael Andretti
Jack Brabham        David Brabham
Jack Brabham        Gary Brabham
Wilson Fittipaldi   Christian Fittipaldi
Graham Hill         Damon Hill
Satoru Nakajima     Kazuki Nakajima
Reg Parnell         Tim Parnell
Andre Pilette       Teddy Pilette
Keke Rosberg        Nico Rosberg
Hans von Stuck      Hans-Joachim Stuck
Gilles Villeneuve   Jacques Villeneuve
Manfred Winkelhock  Markus Winkelhock

Kovalainen goes for the "en-plein"

Heikki Kovalainen is the only driver that was classified in every race of the 2007 season and approaches the Brazil weekend with a chance to become the sixth driver in the history of Formula One to have completed all races in a season.

The drivers that were able to do it before him are:

Driver              Year  Races
Dan Gurney          1961    8
Graham Hill         1962    9 (Retired in Monaco but was still classified)
Jim Clark           1963   10
Richie Ginther      1964   10
Michael Schumacher  2002   17

Last chance for Barrichello

Heikki Kovalainen © LAT

Rubens Barrichello equalled in China his longest sequence of races without points, 16, and one that he endured only once before in his F1 career - during the 1997 and 1998 seasons.

From Spain 1997 to San Marino 1998, the Brazilian finished outside the points twice, suffered 11 mechanical failures, and spun out in three races.

The Brazilian GP will be Barrichello's last chance to score points this season, but it may be on the wrong track, since he retired at Interlagos ten times (nine consecutively, from 1995 to 2003) out of 14 participations.

That said, Barrichello has never finished a year in Formula One without any points so far...

Fisichella goes for the top 10

Giancharlo Fisichella has racked by now 193 Grand Prix starts and is only one race short of reaching the top-10 spot on the all-time record table, currently held by the late Michele Alboreto.

This is the all-time chart:

Pos  Driver              Starts
 1   Riccardo Patrese     256
 2   Michael Schumacher   248
 3   Rubens Barrichello   248
 4   David Coulthard      227
 5   Gerhard Berger       210
 6   Andrea de Cesaris    208
 7   Nelson Piquet        204
 8   Jean Alesi           201
 9   Alain Prost          199
10   Michele Alboreto     194

Moments to remember in the Brazilian Grand Prix

1997 - Look at those tyres...

The easy win of Jacques Villeneuve in his Williams-Renault was not big news, but behind him there was a driver that came third with a modest Prost-Mugen, Olivier Panis.

Panis was the first driver at the chequered flag equipped with Bridgestone tyres, and in the race used a one-stop strategy instead of the two-stops used by drivers equipped with Goodyears.

It's a sign of things to come, as later that year in Hungary Damon Hill, with the usually slow Arrows-Yamaha, almost won the race with Bridgestone tyres, and in 1998 Bridgestone will be one of the weapons that will take McLaren to the top of the world championship standings.

Olivier Panis (Prost JS45 Mugen-Honda) 1997 Grand Prix of Brazil © LAT

1998 - Look at that pedal...

After the dominant display in Melbourne, the two McLarens were at the centre of attention for their superb performances and Ferrari had something to say on the topic. The Italian team disputed the legality of a brake-steer system that acted only on the internal rear wheel and was operated by a small pedal in the cockpit.

The system, also adopted by Williams and Jordan, was in the McLaren car since 1997, allowed by the FIA, however the stewards in Brazil ruled that it was illegal, so the Silver Arrows of Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard had to run without it.

This didn't affect the performances of the McLarens much: they won easily in front of a struggling Michael Schumacher in the Ferrari.

1999 - Black out

Mika Hakkinen took pole and the race lead, but after four laps his McLaren lost speed and came almost to a stop due to an electronic failure. Luckily for the Finn, the problem was temporary and he was able to recover, losing a couple of positions to Rubens Barrichello (Stewart) and Michael Schumacher (Ferrari).

Barrichello's engine expired after 42 laps, however, so it was up to Schumacher and Hakkinen to battle it out. The Finn was able to run a handful of laps more than Schumacher before his pitstop, thus gaining advantage over the German and coming out on top.

2000 - Different strategies

In the early laps of the race, the Ferraris seemed to be in a class of their own, overtaking both McLarens and starting to pull away. But the teams had different strategies: Ferrari had to make two stops and McLaren one, so the red cars had to gain time for their supplementary stop.

Two of the four drivers involved in this strategy game, however, left quite early: Barrichello (Ferrari) had an hydraulic failure on lap 28, and Hakkinen (McLaren) lasted only three more laps before retiring with an oil pressure problem. Schumacher (Ferrari) thereafter controlled Coulthard (McLaren) and took the race win.

However, after the race there were problems in verifying the cars because 5 of the first 6 had their wooden planks worn out and should have been disqualified. The FIA accepted, however, that this was caused by the bumpy surface of the Interlagos track and did not disqualify any of the teams. Except, that is, for Coulthard, who was disqualified for an illegal front wings.

2001 - Montoya vs Schumacher

The first laps were run under the safety car because Mika Hakkinen's McLaren was stranded on the grid. Then, when the race restarted, Juan Pablo Montoya (Williams) showed all his aggressiveness in overtaking Michael Schumacher (Ferrari) into Turn 1, banging wheels with the German and taking the lead.

The Colombian stayed in front for 38 laps, until he lapped Arrows driver Jos Verstappen, who promptly rammed into the back of the Williams car, ending the race for both.

After 45 laps, the rain started to fall and the best on the wet surface was David Coulthard, who took advantage of a couple of mistakes by Michael Schumacher to win the race.

2003: Michael Schumacher joins the expanding car park in Turn 3 © LAT

2002 - Montoya vs. Schumacher redux

Michael Schumacher used for the first time the new Ferrari F2002 but was not able to conquer pole, which went to Juan Pablo Montoya (Williams).

At the start of the race, however, Schumacher was able to take the lead and Montoya, trying to pass, hit the Ferrari - losing his front wing in the process, and any chance of winning the race.

Schumacher thereafter easily controlled the race, as his only opponent was his brother Ralf in the other Williams, who came close to the Ferrari after the only pitstop but never tried to overtake.

2003 - Tyres, crashes and rules

The tyre war between Michelin and Bridgestone caused an awkward situation at the Brazilian Grand Prix. Under the new rules, there was only one rain compund that the tyre suppliers could take to each race, and both Michelin and Bridgestone happened to bring the light rain tyre to Interlagos.

The race, however, was rather heavy in the race, and many cars went off-track, causing four safety car interventions. After the last one, the situation seemed finally clear, with Rubens Barrichello (Ferrari) in front and David Coulthard (McLaren) behind him.

But more drama followed: first Barrichello ran out of fuel, then Coulthard came into the pits just before Mark Webber ran off track and into the wall. Right afterwards, Fernando Alonso ran over a wheel of Webber's car and destroyed his Renault. The situation was so dangerous that the race was stopped.

Giancarlo Fisichella (Jordan) had just taken the lead from Kimi Raikkonen (McLaren) but the classification had to be taken two laps before the interruption and so victory was awarded to Raikkonen.

After a few days, however, the FIA examined the results and video evidence and came to the conclusion that actually Fisichella had completed one more lap and so the classification had to be taken one lap later, giving Fisichella his maiden win.

2004 - Crucial laps

The track was wet at the start of the race and the key strategy was related to tyres: Alonso gambled on dry ones, enduring some difficulties in the opening laps but then emerging in the lead, while his rivals started on intermediates which after a few laps were replaced by dry ones.

Not everyone pitted the same moment, though: Montoya (Williams) and Raikkonen (McLaren) did it right and came out behind Alonso, while Barrichello, the leader at the start and big favourite with his Ferrari, waited too long, losing precious time and finding himself in traffic.

As Alonso was not able to keep up with Montoya and Raikkonen's pace, the race was decided between the latter two, with Raikkonen coming close to Montoya only after the last pitstop but unable to pass him in the last part of the race.

2005 - Typical 2005

Fernando Alonso (Renault) needed only a third place to win his first title and that's what he did, leaving the two McLarens of Montoya and Raikkonen to take an easy 1-2 and cruising to his first world championship.

Critically, though, Alonso would run into Ron Dennis on that podium and for the first time suggest to the team boss that he wouldn't mind driving for the Woking outfit one day. The rest, as they say, is history...

2006 - The last one for Schumacher

Michael Schumacher (Ferrari) had a fuel pump problem during qualifying and was only tenth on the grid. He was able to climb up to fifth place, however, before suffering damage to his left rear tyre after passing Renault's Fisichella.

The German had to complete a full lap with a flailing left rear tyre before changing it in the pits, but when he came back on track, he amazingly climbed up to the fourth place under the chequered flag, only 24 seconds behind his teammate and eventual winner, Felipe Massa, who had a trouble-free race.

Interlagos personal scoreboard

• Fernando Alonso climbed on the podium three times in his last four appearances at Interlagos and was the pole-sitter in 2005.

• Giancarlo Fisichella made two appearances on the Interlagos podium out of ten starts - a second place in 2000 and a win in 2003 (his maiden win in Formula one). He never qualified on the front row, though.

• Felipe Massa won last year from pole - his only podium appearance at his home race, out of four starts.

• Kimi Raikkonen came second three times in a row, from 2003 to 2005, and qualified on the front row only once (last year) out of six attempts.

• Jenson Button was third last year - his first podium appearence in Brazil after six failed attempts. That podium is also the last one to date for Button and his Honda team.

• Rubens Barrichello retired 10 times in Brazil - nine of them in a row, from 1995 to 2003 - out of 14 starts. He was on the podium only in 2004 (third) and was the pole-sitter twice, in 2003 and in 2004.

Barrichello's 2004 pole is his last one to date, and he also recorded his last point-scoring result to date at Brazil (last year).

Barrichello's ten retirements in the same Grand Prix is not a record, however, as Andrea de Cesaris managed to retire (or not to be classified) 12 times in the British Grand Prix.

• Nick Heidfeld has gone through a similar experience to Barrichello's, as he retired four times out of six starts. Brazil is nonetheless a race to remember for the German: he scored his first podium finish there, in 2001.

• Ralf Schumacher has visited the Brazil podium only in 2002, when he finished second behind his brother Michael, out of ten starts. The German obtained first F1 front row start in 2001, with a second place in qualifying. It's even worse for his teammate Jarno Trulli, though: out of the same number of starts, a fourth in 2000 counts as his best result in Brazil to date.

• David Coulthard has four podium finishes in Brazil, the highest number among the active F1 drivers. These include two second-place finishes in 1995 and 1998, a win in 2001 (his tenth win) and a third in 2002. Coulthard's last finish in the points, however, was back in 2003.

• Mark Webber has only ever made it to the chequered flag once, on his debut appearence at Brazil in 2002, where he finished 11th. Thereafter, the Australian retired from every Brazilian Grand Prix - although he was still classified 9th in 2003, his best result at Interlagos to date.

• McLaren have been absent from pole position since 2000, when Mika Hakkinen took the top spot.

• Williams recorded in Brazil their last win to date, when Juan Pablo Montoya took the honours on October 24th 2004.