The 2007 Belgian GP Preview

Analysis

Known as a drivers' circuit, Spa Francorchamps is a big challenge for engines: not only are there long straights and fast corners, but the Eau Rouge corner puts the biggest vertical G forces of the year on the oil system.

Despite the relatively long straights, the fast corners require relatively high downforce to minimise laptimes; however, as drag levels go up, top speeds suffer, leaving drivers vulnerable to being passed on the straights; accordingly, teams anticipating a dry race will run relatively low levels of downforce, probably on a par with Canada and the US settings. On the other hand, those anticipating rain will be prepared to compromise straight-line speed in order to have a high enough downforce to give an advantage when the surface is wet.

As the teams have only had one test at Spa, and that was a couple of months ago in mixed conditions, they are going to take a while to get the cars dialled in; furthermore, as the drivers themselves have a little more influence, the grid could be quite mixed. Overtaking is possible here, and perhaps a little easier with revisions made this year to the bus-stop chicane, so much of the action should take place on the track, rather than in the pitstops.

Flashback

In 2005, with some teams setting up for wet weather and the 'hot lap' qualifying protocol, pole went to the final runner, Juan Montoya, ahead of teammate Kimi Raikkonen for McLaren. Fisichella led Trulli on the second row, though the Renault driver had a ten place penalty pending for an engine change, with championship leader Alonso ahead of Ralf Schumacher on the third row. Michael Schumacher led Massa (then with Sauber), Button and Webber (Williams) to complete the top ten.

A wet track after rain on race day saw most drivers start on intermediates; Montoya pulled out cleanly at the front, ahead of Raikkonen with Trulli holding third ahead of Alonso. Ralf Schumacher dropped three places, whilst Sato gained four.

Exciting action ensued with drivers dicing in the slippery conditions, as the McLaren duo extended a lead at the front. Fisichella was an early mover, passing Coulthard, Massa and Button; he lost control of the car on lap 11, however, spinning out heavily in Eau Rouge and bringing on a safety car period. All pitted immediately, except the Minardis and Ralf Schumacher, who had already stopped, and Villeneuve, who was gambling. A number of stoppers tried changing to dry weather tyres, but came back in a lap later to change back to intermediates.

Action resumed on lap 14, Villeneuve running wide from second to drop to fourth place, whilst Sato ran into Michael Schumacher at La Source, retiring both cars. Ralf Schumacher, meanwhile, was pressuring Montoya at the front.

Coulthard's engine gave up on lap 19, just before Villeneuve made his only stop. Ralf Schumacher's second stop saw him try dry tyres, another mistake that resulted in returning to the pits for wets. Massa did the same thing a little later. The McLaren's, meanwhile, were engineering an exchange of places through their second stops at the front, in aid of keeping Raikkonen in the championship hunt.

Button was starting to move up the grid, having left his tyres on during his second stop; Pizzonia muffed an unlapping manoeuvre by running in to Montoya and taking him out of the race, gifting second to Alonso whilst Button fought his way up to third place.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
1.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  1h30:01.295
2.  Alonso        Renault          (M)  +    28.394
3.  Button        BAR-Honda        (M)  +    32.077
4.  Webber        Williams-BMW     (M)  +  1:09.167
5.  Barrichello   Ferrari          (B)  +  1:18.136
6.  Villeneuve    Sauber-Petronas  (M)  +  1:27.435
7.  R.Schumacher  Toyota           (M)  +  1:27.574
8.  Monteiro      Jordan-Toyota    (B)  +     1 lap

Fastest race lap: R.Schumacher, 1:52.177

Qualifying best: Montoya, 1:46.391

Weather

Always fickle, the weather forecast for Spa is often meaningless as the area works in its own micro-climate: rain is a common addition to the mix. Adding to the complexity, the circuit is relatively large, meaning that half the track can be in sun whilst the other end is suffering a deluge. Furthermore, once wet, the track takes longer than expected to dry.

Strategy

Typically a two-stop race, drivers behind the top ten will set fuel loads according to when they predict showers will be arriving - if there are none coming through, a single stop might offer a chance to make up places, but with overtaking possible on this track, two stops remains the most likely strategy.

Conclusions

With the feature at Spa playing towards the strengths of Ferrari, they arrive as marginal favourites - though McLaren have an amazing record and should be very competitive: even if it rains, these outfits should dominate the proceedings. BMW-Sauber remain the pick of the rest, with Renault and Williams most likely to challenge; if it rains, Honda and Toyota should also get into the mix.

For the midfield and backmarkers, this is one of the few races where an audacious strategy and gamble on the weather can pay off.

A Lap of Spa with Lewis Hamilton

"You start out at the pit straight which leads down into the hairpin at Turn One. This is a nice, tight corner, a bit like in Bahrain, but it is quite easy to crash here at the start of the race because it's a low grip corner and you just have to make sure that you steer clear of everyone and hope no one rams you from behind!

"Then you carry the speed down the hill as you go flat through Eau Rouge. That is the most exciting corner ever, because if you can imagine the feeling going over a small bridge in a road car where your insides just become weightless, well that is how that corner feels. This is followed by the long straight up into Turn Five which is very good for overtaking.

"Actually Turns Five and Six going into Turn Seven are a nice couple of corners; they are quite tight and again there is low grip so its just about carrying in the speed. Turn Eight is an extremely long downhill corner, where you are sort of clipping the two apex's. It is fairly straightforward but because as it goes downhill it is off camber and you have to be careful not to run too much speed because otherwise you'll slide off.

"Pouhon, Turn 10, is another exciting part of the circuit. As you come into there it is hard to see how much exit you have and how much road is left. This makes it difficult to judge the speed to carry through there, I would say that we would be doing 290, 280 km/h through there, and also there is a lot of G Force.

"If you run too wide and clip the kerb then you'll have to lift, otherwise you'll be off, which makes it quite tricky, On the other hand if you can get it right and stay on the power and carry the speed all the way through the exit of the corner you can gain loads of time and it sets you up for the next corner.

"Moving through Turns 14 onto Turn 15, it is important to get the exit of Turn 14 right as Turn 15 is flat and you need to carry the speed from this corner all the way down the straight. This straight may look easy but it is not. It is very bumpy and the car is bottoming out.

"Turn 17 is quite tight; it is pretty cool corner as you just have to try and be as smooth as possible. It's very important to keep the car straight for braking for Turn 18 and getting the car into the apex, this is the worst part of the track for low grip. The surface here is new so it will get better as the weekend progresses and more rubber is laid down. It is a fairly straightforward part of the track though and you just need to make sure that you get a nice exit from Turn 19 and right down to the pit straight."

Team by Team

Lewis Hamilton testing for McLaren © XPB/LAT

McLaren Mercedes

This is a circuit that has always seen McLaren do well: the team have a phenomenal ten wins and ten further podiums to their name from 46 starts. Clearly, they are always a force to be reckoned with, even when the team are basically suffering an 'off' year.

Coming from the dominant performance at Monza, it would be simple to consider the team hot favourites to win again, but from the one of nature of that circuit, the equally dominant performance of Ferrari in Turkey makes it clear that they are also contenders this time around.

1. Fernando Alonso: on both his visits with Renault, Alonso showed decent pace, even when his car was not the fastest; this is a circuit that lets him showcase his talent. Considering the championship deficit to Hamilton, he will be looking to bring some of that previous experience to bear, and again finish ahead of his teammate.

2. Lewis Hamilton: still leading the championship, but by an ever decreasing amount, Hamilton has been on the back foot to his teammate for the last couple of outings; although beaten fair and square in Monza, the puncture in Turkey was an interesting turn of bad luck: beating Alonso has to be his top priority this weekend.

Objectives: Pole and both cars on the podium.

Renault

Far from the form of two years ago, where Alonso came second, the team have been decidedly off the pace, compounded by no longer developing the 2007 car. They are on the cusp of being regular points scorers, but without a significant advantage over the midfield, they are fighting the likes of Williams every time out, so those points have been hard to come by.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: there have been some interesting - and mixed - results for Fisichella in Spa. If he makes the finish, he does very well, with podiums for Jordan in '97 and Benetton in 2001; but he has only finished half of the races; if he gets it right, he is a contender for points this weekend.

4. Heikki Kovalainen: it took him a while to get into his stride, but Kovalainen is clearly delivering on the promise that got him a race seat at Renault. Not only is he typically outqualifying his experienced teammate, but his star seems to be in the ascendancy on race day too.

Objectives: Get both cars into Q3 and the points.

Felipe Massa testing for Ferrari at Spa-Francorchamps © XPB/LAT

Ferrari

The last Spa outing was not a huge success for Ferrari, who did not get close to finishing on the podium. Things were not looking too bad when they tested in July, however: they were fastest on two of the three days then.

Despite being comfortably beaten by McLaren at their home Grand Prix, Ferrari remain a strong contender for the weekend ahead. At the lower end of the medium downforce circuits, like Spa, they have been very strong all year and will be looking to put together their own one-two finish.

5. Felipe Massa: racing with Sauber, Massa was to Spa three times and showed himself to be very quick - he will be expecting to finish on the podium whatever happens.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: winner at Spa in 2004 (from tenth on the grid) and 2005, Raikkonen has shown exceptional pace in Belgium and is arguably favourite to top the podium this weekend.

Objectives: Pole and both cars on the podium.

Honda

In their 2005 visit to Spa, Button finished on the podium after a strong end to the race: it was a decent weekend for the team, who did not drop the ball under trying circumstances.

This year has not been going well; with only two points from the season to date, they are rather hoping the last outing in Italy is the start of some momentum.

That said, whilst their last test in Spa was far from promising, the latest developments have provided a clear step forward, which should put points into the realm of possibility for this weekend, even if they are going to be difficult to come by. The team should not be adverse to some interesting weather, as another level headed performance would give them a decent chance to well in to the points.

7. Jenson Button: despite a podium finish in 2005, Button is going to need a very good showing if he is to repeat last weekend's point-scoring outing: there is going to be plenty of competition in the midfield.

8. Rubens Barrichello: with a mixed history in Belgium, the Brazilian is clearly capable of putting together a very quick lap; his last four outings were in a Ferrari, and each saw him finish comfortably in the points - this is a circuit where Barrichello can have a solid outing. The real question is how well the latest changes to the car work with his driving style, but he should be as at least as likely as Button to score points here.

Objectives: A car in Q3 again, and a points finish.

Robert Kubica testing for BMW Sauber at Spa-Francorchamps © LAT

BMW Sauber

Last time they were at Spa, with Villeneuve and Massa, the team were far from competitive, but a strong strategic race saw them finish in the points. The story is somewhat different this year: they have put together a competitive package and comfortably hold the status of 'best of the rest.'

As seen regularly this year, the team should be able to stay ahead of their midfield competition and struggle to close on the leading duo. They are able to capitalise when Ferrari or McLaren drop the ball, even taking two podiums, but quite a lot of luck will be needed if they are to do better. Whilst wet weather might offer the opportunities for that change in fortune, it is as likely to let them fall behind other midfielders.

9. Nick Heidfeld: having not been to Spa in a competitive car, it will be interesting to see what Heidfeld can do this year - with the way the team have been improving, the atypical circuit might even let him push the front-runners for a top four finish. As much to the point, a strong outing would help keep his rookie teammate in check, and be particularly welcome in what is effectively a home race for the German.

10. Robert Kubica: even though Kubica has not a Belgian GP weekend behind him, the Pole has been showing excellent form and should again be expected to put on a show this weekend - and whilst beating his teammate here would be something of a coup, there is little doubt he will push him all the way.

Objectives: Both cars in Q3 and scoring fifth or better.

Toyota

Historically, Toyota have had a pretty decent weekend in Belgium, getting at least one car into the top eight on each of their three visits, so it should come as little surprise that they are optimistic they will do well again this time around. Being close to their Cologne factory, it is considered akin to being a home weekend.

The Monza weekend again revealed one of their weakest points, though. When Trulli struggled to get off the line and gave up three places, it ensured his was on the back foot for the race which is never a good thing. With only a week to work on the launch control, there is every chance that the team will be in trouble off the grid again this Sunday, again compromising the race.

11. Ralf Schumacher: with one of the worst qualifying records this year when compared with a teammate, Ralf has been looking pretty indifferent for much of the year, though that has been less plain recently. Then again, with seven Belgian outings, the German has generally put on a good qualifying before scoring points on race day so this is likely to be one of his best outings this year.

12. Jarno Trulli: something of a mystery in Belgium, Trulli was on pole for Renault in 2004 (finished ninth) but more impressively started from second in 2000 for Jordan; but despite clearly being capable of a stunning lap on Saturday, he has a pretty indifferent record for race day.

Objectives: Both cars in Q3 and decent points.

David Coulthard testing for Red Bull at Spa-Francorchamps © XPB/LAT

Red Bull Racing

The last Belgian Grand Prix did little for Red Bull, with Klien finishing out of the points and Coulthard eliminated when his engine let go - though in 2004 Klien did finish in the points for the team in their Jaguar incarnation. This circuit has generally seen the team make up plenty of places on race day, which is as well considering they have historically not done so well in qualifying.

Last weekend in Monza, the team had a frustrating outing, losing Coulthard to a broken front wing near the start of the race and seeing Webber finish just outside the points after tussling with Button and Rosberg: as a team, they are putting together strategies that let their drivers get up to fight for the point-scoring positions, but do not quite have the performance to make it stick every time.

14. David Coulthard: winner in 1999, Coulthard usually has a good race day in Belgium, though his qualifying performances are traditionally underwhelming. The competition is tough this year, so the platform might not be good enough for him to get into the points unless he has an uncharacteristically decent day on Saturday.

15. Mark Webber: from his three visits to Spa, Webber finished once, with a fourth place for Williams from ninth on the grid - this is a circuit where he is able to do well when he keeps it on the track. A good qualifying performance is likely to set up a points scoring option this time out, too.

Objectives: Get at least one car into Q3 and then target a points finish.

Williams

Two years ago, the team had a respectable outing in Spa, with Webber just missing out on a podium and Pizzonia having an above average day until his collision with Montoya at the end of the race.

Considering their performances through this year, Williams have often had pace but struggled clearly improving their consistency. It seems they should be capable of qualifying in the top ten and fighting to finish into the points; certainly they have a lot of experience they can bring to bear for setting the car up to go fast here, though that experience only includes three wins.

16. Nico Rosberg: having consistently outperformed his teammate in qualifying this year, it will be interesting to see what Rosberg makes of this weekend, which presents another circuit where driver input makes a noticeable difference.

17. Alex Wurz: having raced at Spa from '98 to 2000, Wurz has experience of racing at this circuit besides testing in 2005 - whilst the driver can make less of an impression here than at Monaco, this might be an opportunity for him to bring that experience to bear. Again, getting more from his qualifying session is going to be key - certainly it might go some way to stemming speculation that his seat is already lost for next year.

Objectives: Get at least one car to Q3 and fight for points.

Vitantonio Liuzzi testing for Toro Rosso at Spa-Francorchamps © XPB/LAT

Toro Rosso

Last at Spa under the Minardi banner, where they propped up the grid, Toro Rosso have definitely moved forwards with their performance, but quite what that lets them do this weekend will be interesting to see.

With a relatively poor showing in Italy, the team are heading to Spa with correspondingly low expectations; they have a car that is proving difficult to understand and tune in, so the technical Belgian circuit could prove very challenging. On the other hand, with the relatively decent Ferrari engine in their car, an ever improving understanding of the chassis and a couple of motivated drivers, they may be able to cause a surprise ... particularly as they lose nothing with a gamble on the weather.

On the downside, neither driver has raced at Spa, so it will interesting to see if they are able to get the car dialed in.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: with his teammate so new to the team, there are few excuses for being slower, no matter his precocious talent, so Liuzzi will have to put on a better show he is to make enough of an impression to find a ride next year.

19. Sebastian Vettel: having made it to Q2 and outqualified his teammate in Italy, Vettel looks like he is fulfilling the speed potential he showed whilst testing for BMW; a repeat performance would go a long way to cementing that.

Objectives: Get at least one car to Q2 and fight in the midfield.

Spyker

The last Belgian Grand Prix saw the team in a previous incarnation as Jordan - where Monteiro scored a point with an eighth place finish. Things have not really looked much better since then, in any guise: their last outing in Monza was with a revised chassis that left them still comfortably slower than the nearest competitors.

That said, it was hardly the best place to debut a new package - the ultra-low drag circuit saw all their competitors coming out with specialist aero solutions whilst they simply took off wings, so it is quite reasonable to expect more from the B-spec chassis in Spa.

20. Sakon Yamamoto: having been brought into the season so late, Yamamoto has just started to get to grips with his Spyker before being presented with the upgraded chassis - he will do well to produce a performance that is anything close to his teammate this weekend.

21. Adrian Sutil: after a disappointing showing in Italy, Sutil must be looking for a chance to see what the new chassis can do in Belgium, which should suit the modifications far more appropriately. Whether that is enough to get off the back row is still to be seen.

Objectives: Qualify and race off the back row.

Anthony Davidson testing for Super Aguri at Spa-Francorchamps © XPB/LAT

Super Aguri

This is the first visit to Spa for Super Aguri, which means that they are operating with less information than their competition, even if raw data has been made available by Honda. Accordingly, it should be no surprise to find the team taking longer than normal to get the car dialled in, particularly if they are looking for a compromised setting that lets them run in wet and dry conditions.

The weekend in Italy did not go too well: the team were not the slowest on the track, but they were clearly never going to get near the points. Unless they have something unexpected in the pipeline, there is little chance of things improving in Belgium.

22. Takuma Sato: although he has been to Spa three times, Sato has not had much luck - two retirements at BAR were in keeping with his years there. But he has matured since then and will be looking to show better form this time out. More to the point, he is going to have to improve his game unless he is to be finish the season overshadowed by his rookie teammate.

23. Anthony Davidson: having raced at Spa with Minardi in 2002 and tested in 2004, Davidson has at least been at the circuit on a race weekend, so it will be interesting to see if that helps him. He has comprehensively out-performed his teammate in qualifying and usually looked good on race day, so the Briton is working hard with a view to picking up a more competitive ride in the future.

Objectives: Get both cars to Q2 and challenge for a top ten finish.