Why Honda's MotoGP chances suddenly look weaker

When it comes to pre-season MotoGP preparations, the last thing a manufacturer needs is an injured rider, especially with running now limited to just two three-day tests before the first race.

But Honda hasn't had just one rider at less than full fitness in the run-up to this weekend's Qatar curtain-raiser; it's had three. Reigning champion Marc Marquez, his new team-mate Jorge Lorenzo and LCR's Cal Crutchlow have all been hobbled by injury throughout the winter to some extent.

Testing form shouldn't always be taken as an accurate guide of the year to come - Tech3 Yamaha rider Johann Zarco topped last year's closing Qatar test, and he didn't exactly go on to figure in the title battle. But it's clear Honda isn't in the same strong shape it was this time a year ago.

Against the backdrop of a potentially resurgent Yamaha squad, an increasingly impressive Suzuki team and Ducati having a bike that looks at least as good as its already formidable predecessor, could that bode ill for the chances of MotoGP's most dominant manufacturer securing a sixth riders' title in seven years?

Honda's main target with its 2019 machine was to fix its most glaring handicap compared with Ducati - top speed. Here the numbers from the final pre-season test in Qatar suggest Honda has succeeded, since Marquez clocked a best speed of 216.4mph.

But while the early evidence suggests it has made up for its shortfall in a straight line, Honda may have harmed what has traditionally been its strongest point: its potency on corner entry.

Marquez wasn't in shape to push too hard in the first pre-season test at Sepang at the start of February after having an operation in early December in a bid to stop his left shoulder repeatedly dislocating. It didn't stop him going fastest on day one, though.

Still, he noted that the front end of the Honda remained "critical" based on what he could tell by observing Crutchlow in action, and the LCR rider's own words from the Qatar test seem to bear that out.

"In Malaysia I had a bad feeling immediately with the front of the bike," said Crutchlow. "The engine performance is very strong. They've done a great job with that, there's no doubt about that. We asked to improve the engine. But at the moment I don't have the front feeling with this bike, and it seems no matter which way you chop and change it, it's not the way I'm used to.

"[But it affects] all areas: going in, the middle of the corner, and the exit, the front is not what it has been and not what we're used to."

Marquez spoke of being ready to fight for a podium, but the evidence suggests he's behind both Yamaha's Maverick Vinales and Suzuki's Alex Rins

Crutchlow said that sorting out this issue would most likely be a "work in progress throughout the season", and Honda team boss Alberto Puig also suggested that the manufacturer has yet to strike the right balance between raw power and user-friendliness with its 2019 machine.

"Honda had the intention of making an engine that could help our riders a bit more and this winter, in Japan, they've been working a lot on that," said Puig. "We are still applying the finishing touches, but we think we've done an important step forward, in that sense.

"[The increase in power] can have some handicaps during a race. The key thing is to have more power that's also usable."

While Marquez was hardly slow at Sepang, he wasn't able to string more than a handful of laps together and was forced to stop running early on each of the three days. Matters had improved in Qatar, although he still didn't complete any runs longer than eight laps and reported feeling "some pain".

At the end of the test, Marquez spoke of being ready to fight for a podium, but the evidence suggests he's half a step behind both Yamaha's Maverick Vinales and Suzuki's Alex Rins - and that's without factoring in Ducati. Andrea Dovizioso was almost certainly not revealing his hand in Qatar.

Lorenzo's first race on a Honda is likely to be a low-key affair, just like his Ducati debut two years ago. After missing the Sepang test entirely after what he called a "very stupid" training accident that left him nursing a broken wrist, Lorenzo was clearly feeling the effects of his prolonged absence in Qatar, as he struggled with the layout of the RC213V and his own physical limitations.

The fact he ended up with the sixth fastest time of the test disguises his real place in the pecking order, which is to say some way behind Marquez. Indeed, Puig said his new signing "will have some difficulties in the first races" as he focuses on regaining his fitness and learning more about the Honda.

Then there's Crutchlow, another rider who had their 2018 season cut short by injury. But perhaps even more costly than having to skip the final three races of the year was the fact he couldn't take part in the post-season tests at Valencia and Jerez, where Lorenzo made his first outings for Honda.

This lack of input at a crucial stage of development could well be part of the reason why Crutchlow has found the 2019 bike so difficult. So, in trying to satisfy new signing Lorenzo, has Honda sacrificed some of the old DNA that has brought it so much recent success with Marquez?

"The problem is Jorge doesn't understand last year's bike," said Crutchlow. "The information he's giving is going to be different, because he's been on different machines. What we expect of our machine, he doesn't expect, because he didn't ride the old one. He probably thinks it's one thing, and me and Marc probably think it's another."

Perhaps Crutchlow's comments should be viewed sceptically considering his less-than-perfect physical condition. In Qatar he said his outlook for the year "doesn't look fantastic" based on his testing form.

Even so, it's certainly valid to question how Honda plans to reconcile trying to please the two works riders that make up its 'dream team'. Both of whom have very different preferences.

When he was asked about that very topic, Puig said: "Each rider has his own riding style and his own way to feel the bike. But right now, Jorge's situation is quite different in comparison with the other two riders [Marquez and Crutchlow]. He is not attacking yet, and he will be way faster.

"Each rider has his own perception of the bike and you can't change that. Speaking about Marc and Cal, both of them have been riding the Honda for a long time now and they know it pretty well, and that's why they may have another perception. But it's also true that in Qatar, every year in the pre-season test, the riders give the same feedback."

Marquez now arguably faces his biggest challenge yet to win the MotoGP title

Puig evidently feels there's no need to panic if Marquez and Crutchlow weren't quite feeling at ease in testing, because Qatar has never been a happy hunting ground for Honda. Marquez has only won there once since he joined MotoGP (in 2014, his most dominant season) and even in his title-winning '17 campaign he only finished fourth there.

More to the point, Puig argues, Honda has a track record of proving it can cater for different riding styles, and therefore should have no problem when it comes to producing a bike that suits both the ultra-aggressive Marquez and super-smooth Lorenzo.

"If we were talking about 10 years ago, it could be the case," Puig replied when asked if conflicting rider feedback could be a disadvantage for Honda. "But nowadays, with the current rules, it's true the room for manoeuvre is limited. Throughout the season you can do some things and Honda is ready to work in several directions, as it has always done.

"Dani Pedrosa was a small rider who needed very specific elements, different to the ones [Nicky] Hayden or [Casey] Stoner required, for example, and the same happens with Marc."

Whether Puig's assessment is correct could come to define how Lorenzo's tenure at Honda turns out - a Yamaha-like success or Ducati-like flop. But either way, it seems the real start of his battle for supremacy with Marquez may have to wait for a few races, while Lorenzo gets fully fit and becomes fully familiar with the bike.

As for Marquez, it would certainly be foolish to write him off even if he doesn't go into Qatar as favourite for victory. The 26-year old has a history of outperforming his machinery and generally defying expectations, and is still the rider most would bet on.

But Honda's less-than-ideal preparation, the undoubted gains of rival manufacturers and the looming menace of Lorenzo on the other side of the pitbox means Marquez now arguably faces his biggest challenge yet to win the MotoGP title, which would be his sixth.

All things considered, his opponents are unlikely to get many better chances to deny him.