The issue that Bagnaia seemingly can't overcome in MotoGP 2025

The more things change, the more they stay the same. That would probably be an ample expression to describe Francesco Bagnaia's issues this season. The Italian rider thought he made a breakthrough two weeks ago at Aragon but it was just a false dawn, as proved by his weekend at Mugello.

Let's rewind the clock slightly to the Aragon Grand Prix. While qualifying went pretty well for the Italian, lining up fourth on the grid, the sprint was a disaster. A bad start cost Bagnaia any chance of finishing in the points with his pace mediocre at best. The main race was better after a key improvement gave Bagnaia more confidence with the front end of his bike and allowed the factory rider to take third place.

PLUS: Why Bagnaia needs to forget and reset after Aragon MotoGP round

The much-publicised improvement at Aragon was the change of brake disc size on Sunday morning. The 2024 runner-up started the weekend with the 340mm high mass disc but moved to the 355mm brake disc for the main race. The change appeared to transform his performance and he was able to run consistently to a podium, even briefly looking like challenging Alex Marquez for second.

Hence hopes were high for the Italian GP and, if Bagnaia was going to go well anywhere, it would be Mugello. 'Pecco' held a run of three consecutive grand prix victories at the track prior to the weekend, but the Italian event turned into a major disappointment. The problem was that Mugello has lower braking requirements compared to Aragon, reducing the heat going into the brake disc and affecting the all-important brake temperatures.

"You need to control the temperature," explained Brembo's Andrea Pellegrini on Friday. "If you are very low with the temperature you don't have the stopping power you need so you have to warm up the disc.

"To warm up the 355mm disc, you have to put extra covers, which puts extra weight on the bike. Also, the handling of the bike is different with more weight on the front axle."

Brakes have been a crucial factor in determining Bagnaia's performance

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Bagnaia did try the 355mm disc but couldn't get the temperature into the disc. The brakes weren't in the correct operating window and he simply couldn't slow his Ducati down. He changed back to the 340mm disc for the remainder of the weekend.

To begin with, qualifying actually gave a lot of optimism. 'Pecco' was on the pace and put in a lap that placed him second on the grid, just over five hundredths of a second back from his team-mate Marc Marquez. It looked like it was going to be a close one.

With Marquez's poor start in the sprint race, Bagnaia actually led early on but Marc and Alex made quick work of him and the double MotoGP champion slipped back to third. This wasn't the plan and it was clear that 'Pecco' was struggling. After the sprint, Bagnaia was unequivocal about what the problem was.

"I cannot do what I want on the bike. I need to follow what the bike has to do and, when I try to do what I want, I crash, or almost" Francesco Bagnaia

"The front is moving a lot, it’s locking a lot, it’s understeering a lot," explained Bagnaia. "And it’s a shame, because I was the only one that slowed the pace compared to last year. I was four, five tenths slower than last year when I won the sprint."

There was hope in the main race where Bagnaia went toe-to-toe with Marc and battled hard in the opening stages of the race. Marc's brother Alex joined in the fight and the trio jostled for the lead throughout the opening laps with Bagnaia even running into the back of Marc during one particularly close encounter.

By mid-distance, however, Bagnaia's challenge faded after he was passed by both Marquez brothers. 'Pecco' tried to hang on to third place but even this was a bridge too far and he conceded his podium position to VR46's Fabio Di Giannantonio.

Bagnaia battled the Marquez brothers early on at Mugello, but was unable to stay with them

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

At the end of the race, Bagnaia's tyres were ruined. Both the front and the rear, with Bagnaia compelling that he can't achieve the smooth rear sidling style that is required to ride the Ducati - but it all stems from his lack of confidence with the front of the bike.

Bagnaia said: "If I’m doing races like this, if we are not changing something on the bike and the bike remains the same, I think that it’s difficult to think about the championship.

"The problem is that this season it’s always like this. I cannot do what I want on the bike. I need to follow what the bike has to do and, when I try to do what I want, I crash, or almost.

"It changes in a lap. You feel OK, you are pushing, you are there, close. You can have a chance, you can overtake. And then from a lap, you start to have understeer, movement, and it’s impossible to be competitive like you were in the first laps."

Ducati has been incredibly patient with Bagnaia, but it's fair to say that the management doesn't quite know what's going on. After the main race, Ducati team manager Davide Tardozzi was asked if he was hurt by his charge's performance.

"Yes obviously," said Tardozzi when speaking to MotoGP's world feed. "Three wins in a row he's done in the last three years so he was expecting something more.

Tardozzi says Bagnaia is still the same rider that won two MotoGP titles but is lacking confidence

Photo by: Emmanuele Ciancaglini / Ciancaphoto Studio via Getty Images

"Since the beginning of the championship, we have been facing some small problems for 'Pecco' that don't give him the confidence that he has in his main area where his skill is. [They are] braking hard and carrying the corner speed when entering the corner.

"At this moment we haven't found yet the solution, but we absolutely know and we see on the data that 'Pecco' is still the fast rider of the year before."

So the question is what can be done about this front-end confidence problem? The answer is not much really. There just isn't the time nor the manpower behind the scenes at Ducati to solve this issue. It should also be noted the homologation rules do not favour Bagnaia's predicament. If the team wants to run a different engine to change the weight distribution for example, Ducati has to wait until 2026 to do that.

It may be a tad naive to expect a manufacturer to start developing components around one rider who's struggling when his team-mate is easily winning

Frankly, 2025 is a write-off for Bagnaia. The gap in the standings between Marc and 'Pecco' is now 110 points. Marc holds five grand prix victories and six pole positions compared to Bagnaia's single win. The truth may hurt but the statistics do not lie.

Bagnaia needs to reset now. Go back to the 2024 bike perhaps, which clearly he was more comfortable with and is still possible as it remains homologated. Then Bagnaia could discuss with the engineers if they can develop some new components together to suit his riding style more. It may be a tad naive to expect a manufacturer to start developing components around one rider who's struggling when his team-mate is easily winning races. The problem is, if 'Pecco' doesn't try that, what other option does he have?

Could Bagnaia's next move be a radical one to try to get on terms with Marquez?

Photo by: Ducati Corse