How Ducati has been left behind in the MotoGP rider market

In the three days between 28 and 30 January 2020, Yamaha banged its metaphorical fist on the table with a series of major announcements designed to shake up the MotoGP status quo.

First came the unexpected news of a contract renewal for Maverick Vinales, swiftly followed by Petronas SRT rider Fabio Quartararo's promotion to the factory team in place of Valentino Rossi in 2021. The third and final shockwave from Japan was the announcement of three-time series champion Jorge Lorenzo as test rider.

With Vinales, Yamaha's fastest current rider and the only man to have won on a YZR-M1 for the past two seasons, and Quartararo - widely tipped as the most potent anti-Marquez weapon currently on the market - on its books, the Japanese factory has pretty much cornered off the rider market for the next three seasons.

The impact of this daring triple move has been felt more keenly in some corners than in others. Indeed, Ducati is still coming to terms with it.

Considering the risk involved with deposing a living legend in Rossi from his flagship position, the only conclusion to be made is that Yamaha is ready to go all in to end a drought dating back to 2015 and Lorenzo's last title. It's approach in recent seasons has always given the impression that sporting objectives needed to remain in line with commercial interests, which is logical when you consider the footprint left by Rossi wherever he treads.

"The worst thing the people in charge of any factory can do is to make decisions that they anticipate will benefit one of its riders more than an another, even when it is something he hasn't asked for. That is what has been happening here in recent years," revealed a senior Yamaha source, who prefers to remain unnamed.

The Ducati bosses in Bologna are happy to admit that they got a shock when they heard the news that Vinales had re-signed with Yamaha

However, something has changed this winter - and it has not gone unnoticed elsewhere.

"Our biggest rival is clearly Yamaha, who have won seven of the last eighteen championships," affirms Alberto Puig, Honda team manager.

As for HRC, Marc Marquez's renewal for the next four years is now official and the incorporation of his brother and Moto2 World Champion Alex Marquez paints a well-structured view of the future.

Suzuki has indicated that its current riders will also get new deals for 2021 and 2022, exercising the performance-related clauses in their contracts. Alex Rins, winner of two races in 2019 (Austin and Silverstone), is as good as done, while Joan Mir was the subject of interest from other factories before they were told that his future is in Suzuki's hands.

The Hamamatsu factory remains focused on its goal of moving step by step, an approach that - with the exception of a 2017 season spoiled by engine problems - has wielded good results since its return in 2015. The current competitiveness of the GSX-RR, especially in the hands of Rins (below), combined with a stable workforce in the garage, has been crucial to the continuation of Suzuki as a growing force.

Both riders will now approach the 2020 season looking to establish themselves as contenders to win the first race, no matter when or where it could be.

All of this leaves Ducati looking rather on the back foot - whether you take the timesheets as a guide (both Sepang and Qatar tests raised a lot of doubts) or the potential new signings that might have provided a dose of optimism.

The bosses in Bologna are happy to admit that they got a shock when they heard the news that Vinales had re-signed with Yamaha. When asked by Autosport just how much of its future plans had been based around signing the Spanish rider, Ducati's Sporting Director Paolo Ciabatti's response leaves little doubt that he expected to have the #12 on one of his bikes in 2021.

"Ducati was thinking that Vinales could be an interesting rider for our future but now he is no longer available," admitted Ciabatti.

"When that happens, obviously we have one less card to play. There are not many options."

The relationship between Vinales and Yamaha took a 180º turn between the final race of 2019 at the end of November and the first ten days of December. Up to then, the indications coming from the Vinales were pointing directly to Borgo Panigale.

As far as Autosport has been able to uncover, Ducati made the Catalan rider aware of their interest, but a lack of conviction in its approach coincided with a reaction from the Japanese chiefs at Yamaha, who were spurred into action when Vinales' close confidants made them aware of his intention to change scenery.

A new deal was agreed in the first week of December, when everybody else was on holiday and Vinales made a flying visit to Japan. By the time Ducati found out and tried to react, it was too late.

"We have to the find the best from what is available" Paolo Ciabatti

Until a few weeks ago, Andrea Dovizioso's time as the Italian factory's spearhead looked to be up, but the latest movements in the rider market could well extend it for a while yet. The rider from Forli will turn 34 next week, and in the last seven of those years on a Desmosedici has only truly challenged for the title once, in 2017.

"Of the five riders who won races in 2019, we have two of them," says Ciabatti.

"It is true that Dovi will be 34 soon, but he has finished second in the championship for the last three seasons and he has been the only rider able to challenge Marc for the title.

"Then we have Danilo [Petrucci], who needs to establish himself consistently amongst the top five, Jack [Miller] - who has a colossal talent - and Pecco [Bagnaia]. And [Johann] Zarco also has a contract with us now.

"We have to the find the best from what is available."

Far from inspiring confidence, Ciabatti's final comment does nothing if not confirm the suggestion that Ducati has indeed been left behind.