Did the Qatar GP hint at Ducati’s true MotoGP leader?

Despite his absence from the 2021 grid, Andrea Dovizioso’s spectre hung over the paddock during the Qatar Grand Prix. On the week before the race it was announced he will test the Aprilia in April, while his manager batted away suggestions it could lead to race outings this season.

But it was at Ducati where he really loomed. Dovizioso ensured during MotoGP’s previous two visits to Qatar the top step of the podium was stained in red. As Ducati moves forward with its refreshed roster, that run was expected to continue in 2021.

Francesco Bagnaia’s record-smashing qualifying lap for his maiden MotoGP pole looked to set the tone, as did the rocket ship start he, team-mate Jack Miller, Pramac’s Johann Zarco and his rookie team-mate Jorge Martin got at lights out to run 1-2-3-4 on the opening lap.

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Ahead of the Qatar weekend, having topped the test outright and shown encouraging long run pace, Miller was tagged by many as the pre-season title favourite. It was something he was enjoying, but there was an unwillingness to back himself in his response.

Miller has a tough job on his hands in 2021, filling the shoes of the rider who challenged Marc Marquez for the title in 2017 and has been Ducati’s leading light in the championship for the past four seasons – not least because this is Miller’s seventh season in the premier class and his third as a factory-contracted Ducati rider.

Ducati success in Qatar is an expectation that must be fulfilled. To finish seven seconds off the victory in ninth as Miller did simply isn’t good enough when a podium is the very minimum requirement for a Ducati rider at Losail.

Miller “hit a wall” in the latter stages of the 22-lap Qatar race with rear tyre wear, which dropped him further and further off the podium battle. His pace wasn’t exactly blistering in contrast to that of race-winner Vinales’, and Miller is at a loss to explain what went wrong.

Fabio Quartararo, Yamaha Factory Racing, Maverick Vinales, Yamaha Factory Racing, Jack Miller, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

“It’s difficult to say at this point in time, I felt extremely comfortable there in third position after Zarco passed me and I said ‘OK, let these boys go’,” he said. “I felt like I was being very careful, very calm on the tyres. It was mainly the right side – just off gas was really the biggest issue. I had quite a big moment as soon as I started to follow Vinales. Off gas, in Turn 5, as soon as I used rear brake on angle, I just lost the rear and then, as soon as you start to lose it off gas like that, it’s difficult to carry the corner speed so, as I said, we need to study and understand what I need to do different or if we need to change something or whatever.”

Miller ended up seven seconds off the victory at the chequered flag, but he wasn’t the only Ducati rider to have tyre wear problems. The Qatar race always comes down to who can best manage the drop of their rubber, and Dovizioso’s mastery within his wins were the result of him running an exceptionally slow pace to start with before turning up the wick in the latter stages and stretching the pack.

At the test earlier this month, Miller’s race run faded dramatically in the last six or seven laps. And it was from lap 15 onwards he began to fade last Sunday. Race management isn't a new issue for Miller either on the Ducati.

Team-mate Bagnaia’s pace began to drop from the same point, and he would eventually succumb to Zarco’s advances. But the former concedes he perhaps pushed too hard in the opening stages of the race, while Zarco says his tyre drop occurred when he tried to hook onto Vinales when the Yamaha rider came past on lap 12. He believes with four tenths more in his pocket in terms of pace, he could have stuck with the Yamaha man.

“Everything is ready. The bike is fast, the team knows perfectly the bike and me with my experience I should be able to control any situation and I hope now it will be the time" Johann Zarco

Suzuki’s Joan Mir would come past both Zarco and Bagnaia on the last lap, but the world champion ran wide at the final corner and was out-dragged by both. And so Ducati’s golden Qatar run was ended, while its top rider on the night wasn’t on one of its factory team GP21s.

Based on one result, it would be hasty to say Zarco is the one to perhaps lead Ducati now. But the result is a consequence of a different attitude Zarco possess relative to the other Ducati riders – particularly Miller – presently.

“The confidence in the team and in the bike is already pretty high, but even before the season I knew the team and the bike has the potential to win or to be all the time on the podium,” Zarco said after the race. “We start here in Qatar with a good track for Ducati and I’m so happy to be able to use these strong points. So, if it’s a chance to do something good for all the championship, I will take it.”

Johann Zarco, Pramac Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Before the weekend Zarco made big noises about 2021 being “my year”, the season he finally starts winning races and fights for the championship. The road to this point has been a winding one for the Frenchman, his miserable first stint as a factory rider at KTM in 2019 resulting in him being broken down and deposited at Avintia for 2020. Though he was reticent at first, Ducati pushed him hard to sign with it and ride for the satellite squad in 2020. He rewarded that faith with a podium at Brno last season, gaining him his return to factory status with Pramac for 2021. And again, he’s vindicated this.

“Everything is ready,” he said ahead of the Qatar weekend. “The bike is fast, the team knows perfectly the bike and me with my experience I should be able to control any situation and I hope now it will be the time.”

This contrasts starkly to Miller’s response on Saturday when asked if fifth on the grid was a disappointment given the pre-season expectations: “I think the expectation was all on you guys.” Even his reaction to finishing the race in ninth wasn’t as harsh as it should have been: “Now we’re in the factory team, we don’t want to be in ninth position but that was the cards we were given today. It’s better than zero points.”

And while he’s not wrong, Honda’s Pol Espargaro branded eighth on his debut on the RC213V a result which made him “angry” given the expectation on him to fight for the title, while KTM’s Brad Binder said ahead of the race the thought of just scoring a top 10 given his struggles on the RC16 in Qatar made him “sick to my stomach”.

Whether a rider truly believes what they say is a different matter, but what they project to the world doesn’t go unnoticed by the people signing their pay cheques to deliver the top results they’re expected to do.

So, with that said, Zarco isn’t just making all the right noises, he’s also letting his actions speak for him. With Miller not secured at Ducati beyond 2021, Zarco’s revival could pose a problem for him as the season goes on.

The outcome of the 2021 world championship won’t likely hinge on what happens across the Qatar double-header this week. But the Doha GP has taken on more significance for Miller now, bordering on must-win to strengthen his position again as Ducati’s leader after the disappointment of the first round – not least with a Zarco once deemed good enough to partner Marquez at Honda returning to the fore in MotoGP on identical machinery.

Johann Zarco, Pramac Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images