How cancelled races stand to impact MotoGP's 2020 title fight

The inevitable has happened; the threat of coronavirus has now claimed the first two MotoGP rounds of the 2020 season.

Though series promoter Dorna Sports had put a contingency plan in place to allow those travelling from major outbreak zones in Italy and Japan to enter Qatar more smoothly, the ever-changing situation that the emergence of COVID-19 has brought meant the Qatari government had to take further action.

Qatar's first cases of the disease were confirmed over the weekend, at the same time Northern Italy's confirmed cases shot up at a frightening rate to 1700. As a result, all travellers from Italy - pertinent to MotoGP or otherwise - are to be placed into an immediate 14-day quarantine. With so much of the paddock coming from Italy - and from Japan - the havoc caused by increasing travel restrictions would have spiralled.

Despite MotoGP's conspicuous absence, both Moto2 and Moto3 will race in Qatar having already been in attendance at the Losail circuit at the weekend for a test. Non-Italian personnel and the Japanese crew that remained in Qatar after the premier class test, as well as staff from Michelin, will return to the circuit this week to pack up the MotoGP gear and send it back home.

Hours after the round in Qatar was cancelled, the Thailand race was postponed. Originally declaring the coronavirus risk as low, a death in the country in the last week and a rise in unconfirmed cases led to the country banning all large events. The decision was taken to put the Buriram race on hold. Here's hoping that Michelin plumped for return postage on the tyres it had already shipped to Thailand.

If MotoGP is allowed into America in April, the season is likely to start there. But, given the ever-changing situation as the risk of coronavirus alters from one day to the next, no one knows. Much criticism online has been thrown at MotoGP for its decision, while Formula 1's Australian Grand Prix continues to go unthreatened for the time being. But ultimately, the right decision was made - and that's all there is to it. It's inconvenient for the fans, sure, but there are also uncertain times ahead for paddock personnel and myriad freelancers.

One can do nothing more than hope that the situation won't worsen and we can go racing soon. So, in that vein, let's talk about racing - since the whole coronavirus scenario could very much impact the destiny of this world championship.

With the season now bound to wait at least a month before it begins, reigning world champion Marc Marquez's early-season outlook has become a lot more positive.

The Honda rider has endured a winter of recovery after undergoing surgery on a right shoulder injury, and this has hindered his pre-season preparations. Admitting at the Sepang test - where he was only riding at maybe 60-70% fitness - that his shoulder was worse than expected, the situation didn't improve much at Qatar owing to a nerve getting trapped in his shoulder during surgery.

To boot, the 2020 RC213V was petulant throughout testing, with HRC only making a breakthrough on the final day in Qatar. Seemingly, the root of all of the Honda's evils came from its new aerodynamic package, which made an already bad bike in the corners even worse.

Should the season start at Austin and continue to Argentina, Marquez stands a very good chance of winning both - regardless of where the bike is at

So Honda's benefit is two-fold. First off, Marquez gets more time to get back to full fitness. No matter how bad a bike is - as demonstrated last year by his devastating run to a sixth MotoGP title - so long as he's fit, he can manage, as he was quick to point out in Qatar.

"Of course, when I'm at 100% physical condition I avoid these problems [with the bike that other Honda riders suffer] and I can fix it," he said. "But if I'm not at 100% physical fitness then I cannot avoid them, and I am riding in the same level as Honda riders."

For Honda, it gets more time to develop its aero package. A switch to the 2019 version in the test yielded positive results, and it likely would have homologated that for the start of the season. Clearly, HRC thinks the version it has been trying since November is a step forward, and now it has at least four weeks to return to the drawing board.

The technical regulations stipulate that aero packages must be homologated before the first race of the season. Teams are allowed a further change during the season. With Qatar cancelled and Thailand postponed, the de facto first round becomes Austin for the time being.

This same rule applies for the non-concession manufacturers (Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, Ducati) regarding engine homologation. Most had already pretty much decided on which specification they'd run this year prior to Qatar, but a few more weeks potentially affords the opportunity for a bit more dyno testing and tinkering of motors.

Of course, radical changes are unlikely. None of the non-concession teams can test with race riders now, and leaving all the work to the test rider might not yield the results required if a team is looking for a sudden major gain. This is where HRC and Marquez still remain on the back foot a little. Marquez admitted after the final day of the Qatar test that he'd have to go back over numerous items to retry in the coming race weekends now that Honda has found a way forward.

But, should the season start at Austin and continue to Argentina, Marquez stands a very good chance of winning both - regardless of where the bike is at. Last year's crash aside, he's never been beaten at the Circuit of the Americas and he devastated the field in Argentina last season.

Bad news, then, if your name is Maverick Vinales. The Yamaha rider comes into this year touted as Marquez's strongest rival, based on his performances on the M1 across winter testing.

Many riders were quick to point out Vinales' long run pace as something to be concerned about, and his single-lap pace is as strong as ever. Working hard to fix his weak point of early-lap pace during races, and with the Yamaha fitted with the holeshot device to boost his launches, Vinales would have been very hard to beat in Qatar. With the Yamaha always going well in Thailand, Vinales stood a very strong chance of inflicting further damage to Marquez, who'd still be working to get fit on a bike still needing time to be fettled.

Vinales hasn't lost sight of the bigger picture, but his comments in a Yamaha press release on the loss of the first two rounds is primed for reading between the lines.

A delay to the season getting underway and a potential successful proof of innocence for Iannone means Bradley Smith will be reduced to spectating

"It's a shame that the Qatar GP has been cancelled for us and that the Thai GP has been postponed, because these are tracks that I really like, and I think that I'm very strong there," Vinales explained.

"We finished the Qatar test with very positive feelings, so I was impatient for the first race."

Should it get to the end of the year and Vinales has managed to lose the championship to Marquez by not very many points, it wouldn't be unreasonable to point the finger at the cancellations caused by the risk of coronavirus.

Away from the championship battle, the extended time off could benefit a certain Andrea Iannone. The Aprilia rider is still in limbo as he awaits to hear his fate regarding his current FIM ban for failing a doping test last November. A decision had been expected at several points over the past month but instead, the battle rages on.

Iannone is adamant of his innocence. He claims the ingestion of an anabolic steroid was accidental, likely through food contamination, although the consensus among experts is that this is unlikely. And, even if it is true, it doesn't absolve him of the fact he still ingested a banned substance. A verdict is expected this Wednesday.

If he is acquitted, there was a chance he could have made it onto the Qatar grid. Should the case have continued to go unresolved, he would have missed the first race and possibly more if it continued to rumble on. Should the verdict come back this week and he is proven innocent, Iannone won't have lost any races, but would be primed for a struggle given that he has had zero time on the new Aprilia over the pre-season.

On that note, spare a thought for Aprilia test rider Bradley Smith. Looking likely to be the only athlete benefitting from steroids with the possibility of some added race time in Iannone's absence, a delay to the season getting underway and a potential successful proof of innocence for Iannone means he'll be reduced to spectating.

The MotoGP paddock, in light of the cancellations, has been beset by doom and gloom - so let's end on a positive note.

In lieu of MotoGP action this weekend, the future stars of the series in Moto2 and Moto3 stand to gain more attention, as will the great racing they produce. And that can't be a bad thing, can it?