The Weekly Grapevine

Silly Season begins

No doubt Felipe Massa felt doubly relieved as he took the chequered flag in Turkey. Not only had the Brazilian comprehensively trounced his much-vaunted team-mate and reigning world champion Kimi Raikkonen in both qualifying and the race, but news was also trickling through the paddock that a one-year extension to Robert Kubica's tenure at BMW was as good as done - if not already completed.

Since last year's Chinese Grand Prix, where the Pole - in the lead, and suitably tyred and tanked for his final stint - retired through hydraulic failure, the word was that Ferrari was after Kubica, who, after years of living and karting in Italy, is regarded by many as an honorary resident of the country.

His Italian manager, Daniele Morelli, whilst respecting every clause in his 24-year-old charge's BMW contract, has done nothing to discourage the rumours, and, if anything, has pandered to the press whilst downplaying suggestions that 2005/6 champion Fernando Alonso, who is believed to be free to leave Renault if the team is lower than fourth in the Constructors' Championship at mid-season, would join BMW for 2009.

Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber © LAT

"Sure, (Renault boss) Flavio Briatore and Mario Theissen often talk, but only because they are the next motorhome after BMW," said Morelli in Barcelona.

When it was pointed out, though, that Ferrari was generally placed to the other side of BMW's billowy hospitality facility, yet Theissen and Ferrari sporting head Stefano Domenicali were seldom seen chatting, Morelli merely smiled and lit another cigarette before suggesting that the contracts of both Ferrari's drivers had legs through to, at least, end-2009 ...

Quite why BMW would spend three seasons grooming 'Roberto' - as the driver is affectionately known within the team - only to replace him when he shows winning form went unexplained by conspiracy theorists, leading a BMW team member to remark: "You don't spend time house training a puppy only to give him away ..."

Maybe so. Paddock patter, though, has it that Kimi's contract permits him to depart after two championships, and with the current points' leader looking increasingly likely to seal the title by mid-September, Ferrari would, assuming the rumours have currency, thus be well served to commence planning its 2009 line-up PDQ.

Meanwhile, until the Turkish weekend Massa, whose contract was last October extended through to end-2010, had delivered a middling season. In Australia it seemed a look-alike had gained entry into the cockpit of the second red car; in Malaysia many believed the impostor had forgotten even the most rudimentary driving skills.

Yes, Bahrain brought victory for Massa, but Spain went against him, and thus his record ahead of Turkey read: two blots, a win, a second and 18 points.

By contrast, Raikkonen's form sheet looked somewhat better: eighth place despite a sick car in the opener (although, to be fair, his copybook was also blotted by a series of incidents during the race), a win, a second and another win, plus the lead in the championship with 29 points to the 20 of Lewis Hamilton.

Ferrari's reasoning was therefore logical: sign Kubica, whose stellar pole position in Bahrain cemented his reputation as probably the fastest driver out there despite having only the third-fastest car, and slot him into Kimi's seat should the Finn depart F1 after a second title, as conventional wisdom indicated he would.

If the Finn does not leave at season's end for whatever reason, the pairing of Raikkonen and Kubica would likely be unbeatable. 'What about Massa, then?' I hear you say.

Felipe Massa © LAT

No problems, goes the theory: the Brazilian enjoyed the protection of Jean Todt, but the Frenchman has now effectively left Ferrari, so Massa is feeling the chill.

Plus, should Kubica head for Ferrari, then Alonso would likely fill his blue/white seat, and Renault, ultimately presided over by Lebanese-born, Sao Paulo-educated Carlos Ghosn, would love to have a proven winner to replace the disappointing Nelson Piquet.

Most F1 observers consider it somewhat strange that Piquet has not received public verbal lashings for his various excursions - as did Heikki Kovalainen for lesser indiscretions by the same point last season - and the word is that one man is more powerful at Renault than Briatore.

That man is Brazilian-educated, as is Piquet. As, too, is Massa. But, read on, for there may well exist another destiny for this Brazilian.

Should all this come to pass - and, forget not that no formal announcement has (as yet) been made by BMW that it has extended Kubica's contract - how would the other dominoes fall? For starters, Nick Heidfeld is unlikely to leave BMW, for not only has he done a fine job, but at one stage lay second in the drivers' hunt.

Then, McLaren is unlikely to change its present line-up. That said, the same thoughts prevailed as F1 headed for Monaco this time last year, and, just as Lewis had not won a race by that point in the season, so has Heikki, who undoubtedly has the potential to win many grands prix, failed so far to do same. So, could matters become more unsettled within McLaren by, say, Canada?

Williams, too, seems settled - with the exactly the sort of spirited driver line-up so adored by Sir Frank Williams. Nico Rosberg's irrepressible spirit and impeccable motorsport pedigree is ideally suited to the team, and young Kazuki Nakajima has proven he is not only quick, but quick to learn, too.

Mark Webber's contract, though, is believed to be coming up for renewal soon, and given that the rapid Australian is managed by Briatore, could conceivably slot in beside Massa at Renault. Such a situation - Webber, Massa and Briatore - has all the potential to detonate, but, equally, could lift Renault back to where it belongs.

However, if Red Bull Racing are prudent they will realise what an asset they have in MW and extend his contract, probably slotting Scuderia Toro Rosso's Sebastian Vettel into David Coulthard's present seat.

Or Sebastien Bourdais, for the bespectacled Frenchman, who has F3000 and multiple Champ Car titles to his name, has proven to be no slouch at all and has posted times right up there with his sensational young team-mate.

Mark Webber and Dietrich Mateschitz © LAT

However, Vettel's contract is with Red Bull and he is effectively on loan to STR, whilst Bourdais' is with STR - which is up for sale by 50 percent owner Red Bull, and any prospective purchaser will likely demand full asset value.

That, in the present climate, leaves just three teams: Toyota, Honda and Force India. Jarno Trulli has scored all Toyota's points (nine) to date this season, so is unlikely to be dumped in a hurry.

Lest, though, this implies Timo Glock should be shown the door: wrong. The German, whilst not (yet?) as rapid as his ultra-fast Italian team-mate, has had his season blighted on more than one occasion by bad luck.

Force India has hardly enjoyed the sort of season which makes the likes of Vijay Mallya and Colin Kolles dance for joy, even if the music is played onboard the former's floating 104m Indian Empress palace.

Yes, the cars are outdated and the team is undergoing change, but both drivers have suffered too many first lap crashes. But, any line-up changes are unlikely to affect those drivers higher up the grid.

Which brings us to Honda: somehow, even with the best will in the world, it is difficult to see Rubens Barrichello dressed in eco-green overalls come 2009; even more difficult, frankly, imagining Taku Sato being accommodated in what has become, to all intents and purposes, Ross Brawn's Honda.

That Jenson Button will stay is a given. Not only have the Brit and the team paid heavily for his serial-contract-breaking, but Honda has built its infrastructure around him.

So, the perfect running mate - a South American, not too fast, not too slow, but a proven team player - is being sought to race alongside Button. And, the Brazilian motor market is more important to Honda then even to Renault.

Whilst at Ferrari Brawn worked with a man who ticks all the boxes. He won in Turkey on Sunday - which is where we came in ...