The Weekly Grapevine

The M Factor

So, just what took Willi Weber so long?

When McLaren announced the signing of Fernando Alonso, effective from 2007, the German manager, once rated the best in the paddock, surely realized that Michael Schumacher's market value had dropped drastically, particularly given that the seven-time champion's present contract expires at exactly the point at which Alonso's kicks in.

That being so, McLaren's management will sooner or later find themselves in the rather enviable position of having an embarrassment of riches when it comes to driver selection - either 2005 title runner-up Kimi Raikkonen or multiple Grand Prix winner and pole position specialist Juan Pablo Montoya as running mate to the Spanish World Champion, as Formula One moves into its last year under the present Concorde Agreement.

Either driver could, of course, pre-empt the situation and strike a deal elsewhere. But, where? Despite double successes last year, Renault's long-term commitment to Formula One is, frankly, in doubt, while the other top-four team of recent times - Williams - is undergoing massive restructuring as part of an unscheduled switch to customer engines. Under such circumstances McLaren's 'refugee' would surely open discussions with Ferrari before any other, then the only other team to build car and engine within the same environment: Toyota.

Rumours had circulated during the August break that Kimi had done a deal with Ferrari - and that Michael was heading the other way - but these quickly fizzled out as the sport got back to the serious business of racing. The Alonso announcement, though, resurrected these, with Bernie Ecclestone adding fuel to the fire by indicating that the Finn would be wearing Ferrari, not Vodafone, red in 2007.

Sure, Felipe Massa's contract runs for one year (no doubt, though, with options), so conceivably KR or JPM could be accommodated alongside MS without risk of penalty, but, as either would insist on at least equal status with the German, any pairing with Schumacher is deemed unlikely.

Thus, for the first time this millennium (and the last five years of the century just past), Schumacher's position - ergo his earning potential - at Ferrari, and therefore elsewhere, seems under real threat from various sides. An unusual challenge for the German, to be sure, and not one the 38-year old (come 3 January 2007) can be relishing.

At the same time Ferrari is under financial and technical siege. Last season was the Prancing Horse's least successful - certainly in victory terms - for over a decade, and Ferrari Chief Designer Rory Byrne's retirement is looming large. His current contract expires next month, and, barring some sort of last minute deal, the 62-year old South African's departure for Thailand is imminent. Again, not a comforting thought for Schumacher, who has won all but three of his 84 Grand Prix victories in Byrne-designed cars.

The Christmas period saw Schumacher drop hints over his options, but, until late last week, these were seen as idle chatter (at best) or as a stick pushing Ferrari forward (at worst), as team members prepared for life three garage slots down the pitlane.

"If I don't have the chance to win races and challenge for the title, I don't think I'll be very keen to extend my career," he told Der Spiegel last week. "If we want to progress we need more staff. In Formula One, you cannot afford to stand still." A clear message there to the operation which brought the boy from Kerpen riches beyond his wildest dreams, to an operation pushing ultra-hard to reduce the human and financial resources required to win at the highest level, to an operation which once told him he had a job for life as ambassador for the marque...

Then, suddenly, Toyota and Red Bull enter the equation. Here are teams which can progress, can appoint more staff, can afford to not stand still; can, above all, afford the Schumacher. In the immediate wake of Toyota's announcement a year or so ago that brother Ralf had been signed to a three-year, €15m EUR per annum deal with the Japanese company, a rather nasty paddock joke did the rounds, namely that Toyota's main board had agreed to Ralf's rather stratospheric fiscal demands in the mistaken belief that there was but one Schumacher in Formula One...

Weber - whose services were publicly dispensed of by Ralf in December, allegedly at the behest of the latter's wife Cora - now reportedly refers to the Toyota/RS deal 'as my greatest success', implying that Ralf's market value lies well below the agreed rate, and that by implication Toyota paid well over the odds. Not a kind comment either way - and hardly one calculated to persuade Toyota's management to open their exceedingly well-stuffed cheque books even further, even if the possible recipient be one Michael Schumacher.

Aspects of Weber's past have, of late, been widely aired, particularly in the German media, and, despite Toyota being fundamentally a Japanese company with strong ethical values, Toyota Motorsport GmbH proudly operates from Germany, and it is inconceivable that TMG's management remained unaware of these activities. In fact, it was whispered they quietly but collectively sighed when advised of the split between Ralf and Weber - for no longer would the latter be seen in Toyota's proximity. What chance, then, of them welcoming the manager back into their motorhome, even if the reason were the employment of one Michael Schumacher?

What, then, is the real reason for the sudden talk linking Toyota and the greatest driver of Formula One's present generation? Could Weber be putting a proverbial 'rocket' up Ralf's posterior for daring to dump him? Consider the effect on Ralf S - whose life and times over the past nine years have regularly, and sometimes cruelly, been overshadowed by the achievements of Big Brother. To date, Ralf has had the excuses of different cars and teams; at Toyota those screens would fall away.

Could manager and driver be ratcheting up the pressure on Ferrari to ensure Michael departs F1 on a high? Sure, and why not? Michael's mission is to secure the best car for himself at all times - and if the carrot failed to move last year's donkey, could a stick move this year's horse?

Then there is the thought that the duo are playing at freezing all meaningful driver negotiations until June - by when Schumacher's future is almost certain to be decided. Would Kimi, say, be in a position to squeeze top dollar out of Ferrari while the question of Schumacher's future looms large in every negotiation? Ditto Toyota, who may elect to see which way Schumacher jumps before sealing any deals.

If that is the motivation behind the talk, it could all, of course, backfire on them, for once Schumacher's definitive future is decided and announced, a massive scramble for the best remaining seats will follow - with Raikkonen and/or Montoya being best placed to benefit from the resultant drivers' market should Michael retire. Then again, the German may elect to remain in the sport, leaving one top driver with a lesser seat...

The non-Ralf/non-Weber pointers given above apply equally to Red Bull, and in the final analysis, the chances of Schumacher donning Toyota's red or Red Bull's red bull hinge first and foremost on one factor: his continued presence in Formula One, and for a longer period than a single season at that. After all, why should any team invest the time and effort in the services of a driver intending to continue for just one season?

Then comes a second, equally important consideration: is Schumacher prepared, aged 38 and as father of two children, to build yet another team around himself? Benetton he built around his needs, Ferrari he (re)built to suit himself alone - but he was 23 and 27 respectively at the time, with way fewer familial concerns.

And, of course, post-2007 Formula One will be a totally different animal, particularly for the youngest and third-youngest teams (certainly until positive signs of life are emitted by Super Aguri) in the business, both of whom as yet have no winning pedigree (if the rather fortuitous rather than fought win scored by Stewart, which begat Jaguar, which begat Red Bull, in 1999 European Grand Prix win is excluded).

Through all the frenzy two aspects have remained overlooked: the sentiments of Toyota and Red Bull. How do these teams feel about the connection with a seven-time champion, particularly given that Toyota presently employs his younger brother as officially designated number one driver, and Red Bull is an engine customer and is largely viewed as a surreptitious political ally of Ferrari?

"There has been no contact between Toyota and Michael Schumacher or his management team," said a Toyota spokesperson, "but if the rumours are true that a driver of Michael's stature is interested in joining our team, we would be flattered and would underline the improvements that Toyota has made in Formula One in such a short space of time.

"Toyota is currently focussed on the 2006 season and, together with our race drivers Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli, we will do our utmost to take Panasonic Toyota Racing another notch up the Constructors' Championship this year. We are very happy with the job that both Ralf and Jarno are doing with the team."

As for Red Bull: Adrian Newey, newly appointed Chief Technical Officer of the squad, last week told Autosport that "It would be tremendous to work with Michael. He's one of the greatest drivers I haven't had the pleasure or opportunity of working with, but our first goal has to be to develop the car. As I said we have to prove that we can do that before we can sensibly attract a top driver."

Given that Newey's first Red Bull clean-sheet design is scheduled for the 2007 season, with the first proof of the team's capabilities evident as Formula One switches technical tack once again, Michael Schumacher seems destined not to be a Red Bull driver come 2007. Or, for that matter, a Toyota employee.

So, Ferrari or retirement it would appear to be for the German, followed by a lifetime job as ambassador for the Maranello marque.

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- The Autosport.com Team

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