The 2007 Hungarian GP Preview

The circus heads to the Hungaroring, near Budapest, for the eleventh round of the championship, with McLaren comfortably leading Ferrari overall and rookie Lewis Hamilton two points clear of his world champion teammate Fernando Alonso.

Analysis

Frequently an eventful and unpredictable race, the Hungaroring has thrown up a number of surprises in the past, and might do so again - even if it doesn't rain. Tight and twisty, it is often referred to as being similar to Monaco, but without the barriers: this is a challenging, technical circuit that emphasises driver talent.

Usually very hot, cooling will play an important part, as teams that are unable to do a good enough job will have to de-tune their engines. Loss of power is not as much of a problem as poor traction, but any advantage given up will cost on laptimes.

The surface is rarely used and very dusty; the low grip requires Bridgestone to bring their soft and super Soft tyres in order to provide the best mechanical grip; however, particularly with this heat, these are prone to graining, so understanding how to get the best out of the tyres is going to be critical. Another side effect of the dusty surface is that it soon becomes apparent that there is no real grip off the racing line: overtaking is a tough proposition.

This puts a premium on qualifying - and even then, there is a distinct advantage to being on the clean side of the track; unless it rains (which it might), the winner will probably come from the front row (which has been the case in twelve of the 21 races there to date). Only twice has the winner come from behind the second row!

With no real straights on the circuit, the drivers get little chance to rest, which is particularly tough in the anticipated heat; anyone who is not at their peak of condition will be exposed before the end - contributing to the usually high attrition rate.

Flashback

In 2006, both Schumacher and Alonso entered the qualifying sessions with two second penalties to apply to all their times: the latter for brake testing Doornbos, on Friday, the former for overtaking under a red flag in Saturday's practice. As a result, neither made it past Q2. As a result, Raikkonen made the most of the opportunity to take pole, with Massa lining up alongside. Barrichello and Button should filled the second row as Honda looked strong, but the Briton was to lose ten places for an engine change. De la Rosa for McLaren and Webber for Williams followed, ahead of Ralf Schumacher's Toyota and Fisichella's Renault. Heidfeld lined up tenth and Coulthard twelfth.

Sunday saw a morning of rain which meant a damp track, so most of the drivers started the race on intermediate tyres. Raikkonen made a good start from pole, but Massa slid straight down the grid. Barrichello and de la Rosa followed, and were caught by Schumacher by the end of the lap as the Bridgestone shod Ferrari worked rapidly up from eleventh. Alonso also progressed up to sixth, behind Fisichella, in the course of that lap. Then, a Michelin advantage became apparent; Raikkonen stretched a lead at the front, whilst Alonso was all over Schumacher's tail, finally passing on turn four, taking third when Barrichello stopped for intermediate tyres on lap 5.

Button has another poor start, in the midfield, but started to work his way through the field. He worked his way past Coulthard, Massa, Fisichella and Schumacher to be in fourth place by lap seven.

More rain fell after twelve laps, improving the plight for Bridgestone shod teams, but Schumacher remained under considerable pressure from Fisichella. On lap 15, it came to a conclusion as they banged wheels on the final corner, without damage, but Fisichella then passed inside Schumacher in turn one; Schumacher tried to cut inside the Renault, but slid sideways on a white line and tagged Fisichella's rear, breaking his front wing, putting Schumacher back to ninth as he stopped for a new one. The Renault's rear wing eventually fell off... though that might have been the result of a spin that led to contact with the barrier.

On laps 16 and 17, the McLarens and Button made their first pitstops, handing Alonso the lead: he proceeded to lap three seconds faster than they were, opening up a 40 second lead by lap 26. Then, as Raikkonen came up to pass Liuzzi's Toro Rosso, the McLaren driver was caught off guard when the slower car slowed to let him pass, and rode over the rear of the car, eliminating the McLaren and covering the track with debris, bringing out the safety car: Alonso and de la Rosa pitted, putting Button up to second. Barrichello, Heidfeld and Coulthard followed, with Schumacher the last unlapped car in seventh.

The safety car pulled off after three laps, letting Alonso continue to run at the front whilst Button lost time passing the lapped Massa. Then, as the track dried, the Honda seemed to benefit more, and by lap 43 Button was on Alonso's tail. More to the point, the drying track worked to Bridgestone and Schumacher, who started pulling up fast laps and passed Coulthard and Heidfeld. He stopped for fuel on lap 46. Speed attempted to stop for dry tyres, but a slippery lap saw him return for intermediates again. Continued drying eventually saw Alonso stop from the lead, but a wheel nut was incorrectly attached, and his car was uncontrollable: he spun out on turn two.

Button stopped for dry tyres and retained the lead, pulling away from Schumacher, whose worn Bridgestone intermediates were now fading; de la Rosa attacked the Ferrari, but Schumacher was not backing down: they touched wheels a couple of times before he forced his way past. Heidfeld suffered a similar experience, though on this occasion a track rod was broken in the Ferrari and Schumacher was forced to retire.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
1.  Button        Honda                (M)  1h52:20.941
2.  de la Rosa    McLaren-Mercedes     (M)  +    30.837
3.  Heidfeld      BMW-Sauber           (M)  +    43.822
4.  Barrichello   Honda                (M)  +    45.205
5.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Ferrari     (M)  +    1 lap
6.  R.Schumacher  Toyota               (B)  +    1 lap
7.  Massa         Ferrari              (B)  +    1 lap
8.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari              (B)  +    3 laps

Fastest race lap: Massa, 1:23.516

Qualifying best: M.Schumacher, 1:18.875 (plus 2-second penalty)

Weather

Temperatures are expected to reach the nineties through the weekend, with some chance of showers - which would at least help mitigate cooling problems.

Strategy

With overtaking so tough, strategy plays a big role in places made and lost, so there can be a wide variety of approaches; that said, the front-runners are most likely to be two-stopping with a relatively even spacing, unless they take a view on when showers might arrive during the race...

Conclusions

McLaren are favourites here, despite the recent Ferrari resurgence, if only narrowly. Ferrari should make a better showing than in Monaco, with BMW-Sauber and perhaps Renault looking to pick up places if either of the front-running teams drop the ball. It should be interesting to see how the midfield shakes out behind them...

A Lap of Hungaroring with Jenson Button

"The Hungaroring is a track with good rhythm and a good mix of slow-speed and high-speed turns. It was never really one of my favourite races before, but for obvious reasons that all changed last year. It will always be a special place as the scene of my first win. Obviously it will be quite a different race for us this year but hopefully we can keep up the steady progress we have been making and take another step forward. Here is what a lap of the 70 lap, 4.384 km Hungaroring is like to drive:

"When we exit the final corner ready to start a clean flying lap you can always really feel the drag due to the high downforce configuration required for this twisting circuit. We arrive at the first corner at 290 kph and we change down five gears to 2nd gear, turning through a full 180 degrees as the circuit drops away on to the short sprint towards the second gear left-hand turn two. This opens out into a very fast right-hand kink at the lowest point of the circuit.

"The straight that follows climbs steadily towards turn four, which is a pretty exhilarating left-hander taken in 5th gear. This corner has seen many drivers come unstuck because it is so very quick and if you get it wrong you go straight on into the gravel. Another short burst before the tight right hander turn five which is one of the very few potential overtaking spots. We take this in 3rd gear.

"As we accelerate out of turn five we only reach 5th gear before braking hard once more and literally throwing the car over the kerbs at the right-left chicane. We stay on the right-hand side of the circuit in preparation for the quick entry to the next left-hander, which is taken in 3rd gear. This is quickly followed by the 3rd gear right-hander leading into a fast and flowing combination of right-left-right and we have to take care not to exit too wide on to the asphalt at the last right-hander.

"Another very short straight leads to a slow-speed right-hander in 2nd gear and then into another 180 degree left-hander, again in 2nd gear, climbing past the pit entry and into the final 180 degree right-hander in 3rd gear which brings us all the way back to the main straight again.

"A lap of the Hungaroring is quite tiring because there is no respite and no opportunity to relax your hands, so you are gripping the steering wheel hard the whole time. Although last year's race proved a rather wet exception, the Hungarian Grand Prix is typically a hot one and the relatively low average speed means the airflow over the driver is reduced, so you never really get the chance to cool down. It's quite a physical challenge to be honest."

Team by Team

McLaren Mercedes

With their success in the wet at the Nurburgring and a one-two result at Monaco, McLaren have to be heading to Hungary with confidence in their package. Ferrari have undoubtedly closed the gap in their high downforce configuration, but it seems unlikely they have made sufficient improvement to gain any particular advantage.

Off track, the rumbles of the spying row continue to provide distractions. Whilst that should have very limited impact on the team in terms of their racing weekends, any resulting exclusion would certainly be a problem...

1. Fernando Alonso: the reigning world champion is two points away from the lead, coming off a win, and looking for a repeat this weekend. However, despite taking his first win there in 2003, he has had little luck since, despite showing great pace, so he will have to be on his game to ensure he gets the car to the finish at all, let alone in the lead.

2. Lewis Hamilton: after a tough outing in Germany, the youngster's lead in the world championship has been cut to two points - but there is no doubt that he was very quick, and impacted by poor luck. In Monaco, he lapped behind his teammate for the end of the race, protecting a one-two result; this time out, Hamilton can be expected to fight to the finish, and perhaps add to his win tally.

Objectives: Pole and race win.

Giancarlo Fisichella and Heikki Kovalainen on the starting grid © LAT

Renault

The season has unfolded fairly badly from Renault's point of view, with little going to plan. Their car has been off the pace and the drivers have struggled to get it into the points, let alone near the podium.

One exception to that was their performance in Monaco, where Fisichella was able to outperform the BMW-Saubers, the car finally looking halfway competitive, if no match for McLaren.

Since then, the team have clearly not only been working to understand why they are off the pace, but getting to grips with their problems and setting about resolving them. Some of the changes have provided a step forward, but they have not been able to close the gap to the front significantly.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: the Hungaroring has not been good to Fisichella over the years, so there is little reason to expect miracles on this outing; if he has a good weekend, then there is every chance he can make it into the points, but he will need a change of fortune!

4. Heikki Kovalainen: looking ever better as the season progresses, Kovalainen must be looking forward to this weekend as an opportunity to show his progress since Monaco, with Fisichella as a benchmark.

Objectives: Score a point.

Ferrari

Although they were quicker than McLaren in the dry at the Nurburgring, McLaren were clearly showing better in the wet. McLaren also showed a distinct advantage in Monaco - with a performance that Ferrari clearly struggled to match. Quite how well they have been able to close that performance gap in the top downforce set-up will be interesting to see this weekend.

Like McLaren, Ferrari too have been distracted by off-track issues that they will be hoping won't affect their on-track performance.

5. Felipe Massa: despite having indifferent results at the Hungaroring, the Brazilian has been very quick this year, and has to be seen as a strong contender this weekend. With his teammate now settled into the team, he faces stronger competition than during the opening races, but the biggest threat remains the McLaren drivers.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: although he won in 2005, Raikkonen's record in Hungary is not his best, but there is no doubt that he should be quick there. Winning will not be trivial undertaking; not only does McLaren have a very quick car, but his teammate has the same equipment and will be no slouch...

Objectives: Front row in qualifying and two cars on the podium - targeting a win.

Honda RA107 © LAT

Honda

Returning to the scene of their first win a year ago, Honda have really not had a season to reflect upon with any joy. The outfit are off the pace and not making any real inroads in closing the gap to the pack, though they at least have decent race pace now.

Quite what the Hungaroring holds remains to be seen: the outfit looked pretty out of shape in Monaco, but have since been getting a handle on the car, particularly improving driver confidence under braking and turn-in, so it is far from inconceivable that they make a strong showing, considering the experience of the driver element in the package.

7. Jenson Button: at the scene of his only win, a year ago, Button cannot be hoping to come close to the same result this year, even if he has a good outing: the car simply doesn't have the pace. Even so, he will be looking to get in to the points, provided qualifying is not a complete disaster.

8. Rubens Barrichello: a winner in 2002, this is a circuit that has often seen Barrichello perform well, and he will be looking to show that he has lost nothing over the years. A points finish is a big task, but a good weekend could well see it happen.

Objectives: Get the cars out of Q1 and target a point on race day.

BMW Sauber

Two points finishes at the Nurburgring belie what could have been a better double points finish if the drivers had not been fighting each other so strongly. Nevertheless, the benefit to team moral from having a strong package and two good drivers fighting to make the most of it are arguably a better benefit at this stretch of the season, where the overall position is no longer in doubt.

At the Hungaroring, both drivers should again be fighting for points; the team have been maintaining their developments, not quite closing the gap to the front, but remaining competitive, and poised to take points away from them whenever any of the drivers is having an off day.

That said, they will have to keep a careful eye on Renault, whose package might be particularly suited to this track.

9. Nick Heidfeld: having scored a podium here in 2006 and put on a strong showing all year, Heidfeld must be looking at this as another opportunity to take the fight to the leading outfits, with a real chance of getting into the top three again. Provided he can contain his teammate, anyway.

10. Robert Kubica: a year on from his surprise debut, Kubica has shown himself capable of fighting the well respected Heidfeld and scoring regular points; this might be the best chance of the year to score a podium.

Objectives: Fight Ferrari and McLaren in qualifying and the race - target a podium finish.

Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli © LAT

Toyota

Having been quite off the pace in Monaco, ordinarily, Toyota might not expected to particularly shine in Hungary; however, they have been demonstrating some improvement in form since then, particularly getting a handle on their front end grip issues, which robbed the drivers (particularly Schumacher) of confidence when turning in to corners. Accordingly, they should not show a marked drop-off in performance. Even so, Williams, with the same engine, will be a difficult team to beat.

A halfway decent test does little to dampen optimism; the car is clearly capable of a decent turn of speed, but keeping it together for the whole race distance seems to be the challenge. With plenty of start practices, they should get off the line more cleanly, but another issue from the last outing was that there was more than one problem with the pitstops, both in the timing of the strategic calls and their execution.

11. Ralf Schumacher: a strong performer at the Hungaroring, with seven points finishes from nine outings, Schumacher is likely to perform well this weekend, and certainly has to be considered capable of scoring points.

12. Jarno Trulli: rather a mixed performer here, Trulli usually qualifies well, and has always scores points if he finishes, but he has had his share of retirements.

Objectives: Get both cars in to Q3 and at least one in the points.

Red Bull Racing

A strong performance in Germany saw Coulthard finish fifth after starting 20th, whilst Webber made it on to the podium. This circuit, which rewards good driving so effectively, could again prove a decent opportunity for the outfit, as their experienced drivers are finally getting the most out of their cars.

Slightly worrying, though, was the team's performance in Monaco. Unless they have unlocked the specific peculiarities of that circuit that caused them to run off the pace of their midfield rivals, they will be in for a difficult weekend. Then again, much of their progress since that event has been based around understanding the car and avoiding precisely that problem.

14. David Coulthard: in his long history with Hungary, Coulthard has only finished outside the points once, when he has finished the race - last year, his fifth place was well earned, and it should be no surprise if he scores again this time out.

15. Mark Webber: as a qualifying specialist, Webber should be at an advantage here, at a track that emphasises this skill; however, he must hang on to those positions on race day, if he is to bring home points.

Objectives: Get at least one car in to Q3 and both into the points.

Nico Rosberg and Alex Wurz © LAT

Williams

Positive results in recent testing underline the team's progress through the season, as they are frequent visitors to the points - Wurz' fourth place finish at the Nurburgring is a good example.

The team usually have a raised game at circuits like Monaco and the Hungaroring, where their experience in getting the most out of their packages lets them help their drivers. There should be no exception this year, so don't be surprised to see at least one car in the final qualifying session, and at least one of them challenging for points.

Recent testing shows they have the measure of Toyota, despite sharing the same supply of engines, so this is one of the best chances they will have this year to improve their standings.

16. Nico Rosberg: believing he had a good race last year, and knowing the car is relatively strong in Monaco trim, Rosberg has to be looking forward to a strong weekend. Despite some off weekends, he has basically had a strong season, so this is a good opportunity to score some more points.

17. Alex Wurz: having finally got some good races under his belt, Wurz must be looking to recover the form he showed in Monaco, where he brought the car home in the points after a difficult qualifying session. Being close to Hungary, a strong home crowd presence could well lift his performance.

Objectives: Get at least one car in to Q1 and finish in the points.

Toro Rosso

It has been an interesting couple of weeks at Toro Rosso, with the team announcing the replacement of Scot Speed following an altercation in the pitlane after the European weekend; the American bandied words in the press and even attended testing, but ultimately is now following another path. On the positive side, Vettel, hired from BMW-Sauber, is a promising young talent who might stretch Liuzzi.

Right now, the team are not having the best of times. At the Nurburgring, both cars went out early in the rain; when they were running, they did little to grab attention. The mid-season is doing little for the team, who are now thoroughly eclipsed by their Red Bull senior outfit, and even the furor concerning customer cars has lost the interest of the public.

The car is not a disaster, but it requires considerable understanding to set it up well enough to extract a decent performance from the package - something the team have been struggling to attain with inexperienced drivers. Vettel will do little to redress the experience balance, but at least a fresh talent will force them to think in new directions.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: with a quick and talented teammate coming on board, Liuzzi will have to improve his game if he is to retain an upper hand at the team; the emphasis will probably be about besting the new man, rather than looking at other outfits. Certainly, if he cannot contain the German, then he can expect to be looking for a new drive at the end of the season.

19. Sebastian Vettel: having scored a point on his debut with BMW Sauber at the US Grand Prix, Vettel now has a chance to show his mettle in a far less competitive team:

Objectives: Get both cars in to Q2, perhaps shoot for a point.

Spyker

Having failed to finish in Monaco - making little difference to the results, as they struggled to compete anyway - Spyker are going to Hungary with at least the intent of improving upon that showing. They have dropped Albers, now signing Yamamoto for the remainder of the season.

Last weekend, with Winkelhock in the seat, the team saw a car at the front of the race for the first time: returning to that high is unlikely, let alone attaining a points scoring finish, but they can go a long way by putting two race distances on to these cars and building experience towards the remainder of the season.

Sakon Yamamoto © Spyker

20. Sakon Yamamoto: after a disaster racing for Super Aguri last year, the young Japanese has unfinished business in Hungary: last year, he qualified last and failed to get through the first corner on race day. Another difference: this year, his teammate is perhaps as quick as Sato, but with far less experience.

21. Adrian Sutil: quick but inconsistent, Sutil has to keep his act together or his pace will count for nothing. The team need mileage, and his reputation needs more finishes, so the order of the day should be to get to the end of the race. His teammate should get up to speed quickly enough, but should not have the mileage to be a threat at this point.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish.

Super Aguri

Last year, the team were fairly anonymous in Hungary, with Yamamoto slowest in qualifying before spinning out in the opening corner. Sato was a little more impressive, but clutch problems caused him to lose a lot of time later on in the race, and he finished last.

The European Grand Prix was a decent outing for Super Aguri, who qualified 15th and 16th, then had at least the pace of the Honda outfit in dry conditions. They showed their inexperience with wet conditions in the timing of tyre changes, but clearly the car has improved enough through the season that they have stayed in touch with the midfield.

In Monaco, the team almost beat Toyota, and recent pace has been very close to Honda, so this circuit, which emphasises the driver element of the package more than most, might allow them to provide some upset in the midfield.

22. Takuma Sato: usually quite fast in Hungary, Sato has to be looking forward to this as one of his more promising opportunities: scoring points without rain is unlikely, but this is a chance to have a good race.

23. Anthony Davidson: having actually made his Formula One debut here for Minardi in 2002, standing in for Alex Yoong, Davidson has to be expecting a tough fight ahead with his teammate, and perhaps a chance to take the fight to the midfield.

Objectives: Make it to Q2 and get both cars to the finish: target beating the Honda team.