The 2007 Bahrain GP Preview

With two rounds completed, a picture is forming for the shape of the championship to come - now, a win apiece under their belts, Ferrari and McLaren are looking to gain a psychological advantage for the return to Europe with a second win...

Analysis

The Bahrain Grand Prix is a good mix of medium and slow corners, intended to promote overtaking. A hot venue, reliability is going to be well tested, with teams working hard to ensure they have sufficient cooling to make the distance with enough margin to be sure the engines will last through the next race.

Despite having a smooth surface, there is usually a fine sand that covers the track, making life slippery for the drivers. Unless there is little or no wind, that sand will continue to drift, eliminating any clean line, even as it forms. On the positive side, a windy race day stands every chance of improving the racing, as those looking to make a pass will not be penalised as heavily for moving off the racing line.

Judging by performances over the last couple of years, this circuit tends to reflect the relative strengths of the packages quite cleanly, as the drivers themselves cannot make a big difference over a lap.

Flashback

In 2006, this was the opening race of the season, and it started with Michael Schumacher and Massa for Ferrari locking out the front row in qualifying. Button's Honda was a solid third with defending champion Alonso in fourth after a slip on his final hot lap in qualifying. Montoya and McLaren lined up alongside Barrichello with the second Honda on the third row. Raikkonen lined up last, after a suspension failure in his opening lap robbed him of a wheel, wing and lap time.

The qualifying results led most to believe Ferrari were running a light fuel load - so beating them needed challengers to stay in touch from the outset. Accordingly, Alonso pushed hard, forcing his way past Massa on the opening lap; meanwhile, Button bogged down getting off the line, losing five places, though attacking bravely in to the corner restored him to sixth behind Montoya and Barrichello. Rosberg and Heidfeld came together, with the Williams losing a wing whilst Heidfeld span out and dropped to last place.

Button took four laps to overtake his teammate, as Alonso came under pressure from Massa ahead; the Brazilian made a mistake on lap 4, locking up and sliding past Massa, resulting in definite flat spots... resulting in an early stop, which took an unexpected 46 seconds when an airgun failed. Alonso set after Schumacher, whilst Button worked on passing Montoya, a feat achieved after eleven laps. Barrichello, meanwhile, lost third gear and went backwards fast. Similarly, Fisichella was struggling with an engine that was giving up slowly; then his hydraulics gave out, removing all doubt from the issue.

Raikkonen, carrying a full load of fuel, was cracking on with the job of moving forward - reaching eighth and the points by lap sixteen. Heidfeld was also pushing hard and making progress, though he earned a reprimand for the way he muscled past Coulthard.

The battle at the front became more heated after the stops, with Alonso closing rapidly on Schumacher; Button was falling back, around 20 seconds behind the leading duo, but matching their times. Raikkonen, after his stop, came out behind Montoya, and was clearly quicker despite a far greater fuel load.

The final round of stops saw Alonso come out of the pits alongside Schumacher, on the inside of turn one: he braked late and pushed the Ferrari out, taking the lead. Button's stop brought him out behind Raikkonen, who proved less easy to pass than Montoya. Rosberg was making progress, too: he made short work of Coulthard, who had flat spotted his tyres, then did the same with Klien.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
1.  Alonso        Renault             (M)  1h29:46.205
2.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari             (B)  +     1.246
3.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes    (M)  +    19.360
4.  Button        Honda               (M)  +    19.992
5.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes    (M)  +    37.048
6.  Webber        Williams-Cosworth   (B)  +    41.932
7.  Rosberg       Williams-Cosworth   (B)  +  1:03.043
8.  Klien         Red Bull-Ferrari    (M)  +  1:06.771 

Fastest race lap: Rosberg, 1:32.408

Qualifying best: Alonso, Q2, 1:31.215

Weather

With thunderstorms expected on Friday afternoon, it could be a very different weekend than in Sepang. There is some chance of precipitation on Saturday, which could make qualifying exciting. Air temperatures in the high eighties on the opening days should drop to the low eighties as the wind picks up on Sunday.

Strategy

Running with the same specification tyres as they had for Malaysia, it is expected that two stops will be the optimum strategy for the race. Whilst winning with a single stop is unlikely, it would be a good way to make up places, whilst someone looking to overtake aggressively might take on three stops...

Conclusions

As a rule, there is a direct relationship between the amount of testing that has taken place at a circuit, and the processional nature of the race that follows. Accordingly, with the two test sessions at end of February well attended, it should be expected that the race will be fairly processional. Don't be surprised to see teams respond by working on making progress up the grid via pit strategies, rather than on track action.

Ferrari and McLaren are expected to fight at the front - after the reversal in fortunes at Sepang, it is difficult to predict which will come out on top, but both teams will be looking to have both cars on the podium. BMW Sauber remain 'best of the rest' with Renault, Williams and Toyota all looking to get cars in to the points.

A Lap of Sakhir with Lewis Hamilton

On top of the five days testing in Bahrain that I completed, I have also raced at this circuit. The first and only time I competed there was with Formula Three in 2004, which I won. Being out in the desert makes it quite unique and very different to every other circuit we go to.

There is a very long pit straight and a tight first corner, which is good for braking into, but when you start the race it can be hectic into the first corner, with everyone trying to squeeze round in first gear. This has the potential to be tricky so I am not really looking forward to going down into that corner with 21 other guys, as it will be pretty close and staying out of trouble there is not going to be easy.

Then you have another long straight leading into a tight corner at Turn Four; this isn't as slow, just quite normal and nothing spectacular. You then have the sequence of Turn Five and Six which is very high speed. Your line and technique through there are key; getting on power and coming off the power.

In a Formula One car it is very quick and really nice to drive, with a fast left followed by a fast right and back into a fast left. This section is very tricky as there is so much sand on the track and the wind is always changing direction meaning that each time you go in, it is different.

As you come out of Turn Eight and up into Turn Nine the corner just gets tighter and tighter and you are braking whilst you are still turning. This corner has to be one of the hardest as both the speed and grip levels are low and it's easy to lock up the tyres here.

The thing with this track is there are plenty of overtaking opportunities as there are many huge straights where you can get mega tows, but the most exciting part of the track would definitely be Turn Five and Six.

Team by Team

McLaren Mercedes

The opening weekend of 2006 was a mixed bag for McLaren, who had reliability issues, but saw Raikkonen drive to the podium from the back of the grid. They have to be looking for more this year, considering the perfect result last weekend.

Ferrari are expected to be the only real threat for the race ahead: the performance from last Sunday was flattered by the drivers' fantastic starts, which is something they cannot bank on occurring again - so it may be necessary to either make a better attempt at taking the front row, or to rely passing as the race unfolds. Either way, McLaren must be expecting to get both cars on the podium again.

1. Fernando Alonso: a fantastic start to the season sees Alonso slightly ahead of Raikkonen in the defence of his championship, with every prospect of a tough fight ahead, which may influence how hard he attacks for places on track - but it would be a surprise not to see him on the podium again.

2. Lewis Hamilton: two strong races have helped push Hamilton's star even higher, with his defensive driving against Massa helping to ensure that those who follow know he is no pushover when it comes keeping his position. With confidence continuing to grow, it seems only a matter of time before he stands on top of the podium.

Objectives: Pole and race win.

Giancarlo Fisichella © XPB/LAT

Renault

Last year, it was a mixed weekend for Renault, who saw Alonso win the race whilst Fisichella fought an engine that suffered power loss. So far this season, they are not looking likely to get another opportunity to celebrate. From a disappointing Melbourne, they anticipated a step forward in Sepang, but it simply did not materialised - rather, they went backwards in the scheme of things as Williams and Toyota closed the gap.

For the weekend ahead, there is no indication that they know why they failed to get the improvements to work properly last weekend: of course, they will get another Friday of running in order to resolve it, and have had a week to crunch the numbers that came out of the telemetry from last weekend. They might well be able to step up their game... in which case, they should find their drivers fighting BMW Sauber for points.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: despite a couple of points finishes, it seems people are spending more time wondering what Alonso would have done with the car than crediting Fisichella for dragging a dog home - as the season progresses, perhaps that will change. In the meanwhile, the best he can do is continue plugging out the best result he can manage.

4. Heikki Kovalainen: for now, the highly rated Kovalainen has the excuse of interrupted practices to account for struggling - the rookie is very capable and ought to keep his teammate honest as his track time improves.

Objectives: Get both cars in the points again - ahead of BMW if possible.

Ferrari

Approaching the 2006 season opener in Bahrain, Ferrari were underdogs - a situation that was rapidly rethought when they filled the front row. It turned out they were somewhat light on fuel, but the underlying pace of the car was clearly there. This season, they are one step better, and have completed a couple of strong races, and despite being nine points behind McLaren, they may be able to turn that around this weekend.

The team understand their car and its relationship with Bridgestone; they looked very positive here in testing in February, and this weekend they have new engines, so both drivers will be able to run flat out - prospects are looking very good, and they have to be looking to get their drivers on the top steps of the podium...

5. Felipe Massa: despite taking criticism for failing to pass Hamilton last weekend, there is no doubt that Massa was simply attempting to get the job done and take the fight to Alonso. With a propensity for overcooking things when attempting to make a pass, he is better running in the lead: if he can qualify at the front, he has every chance of winning this time out.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: without any restriction to his engine this weekend, Raikkonen ought to be back to the form seen in Melbourne, where only his teammate could touch him all weekend. McLaren continue to be a threat, so a four-way fight at the front could be in prospect...

Objectives: Pole and race win.

Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello trade position in the first turn © XPB/LAT

Honda

It is very much a tale of two completely different years for Honda. A year ago, they qualified third and just missed out on a podium, generating a lot of optimism for the year ahead - this season, the car is born bad, leaving the drivers struggling to get out of the first qualifying session, let alone put together a decent race.

That said, when the car is working, they are clearly showing better on race day than in qualifying; despite starting from the back of the grid, Barrichello was able to make his way to eleventh, finishing ahead of his teammate. There is no reason to expect much else this weekend - the car will probably be difficult to dial in, the drivers may make it in to Q2, but they should struggle to score points.

7. Jenson Button: the car is not suited to Button, who is having a torrid time attempting to get it dialled in to his satisfaction - without compromising speed. Consequently, he is fighting to make any sort of difference, with little prospect of change.

8. Rubens Barrichello: after his last qualifying session, Barrichello was hugely frustrated, leading to him driving the wheels off the car in the race - absolute performance was nothing to write home about, but his race was an example of determination. Should he be able to get past Q3 this weekend, that determination alone might make him a threat to the midfield teams. Until the car is changed, he is expected to have the measure of his teammate.

Objectives: Get the cars set up properly and in to at least Q2 - beat Super Aguri!

BMW Sauber

A year ago, BMW Sauber left the Bahrain Grand Prix with no points - but having clearly showed potential for the year ahead. They qualified well enough, but with Villeneuve's engine giving up whilst he was running in sixth, they had every reason to believe the car was competitive. Continued work has improved the car further, and this season they appear to be a strong contender for the third spot.

The team are aiming to defend that performance: closing on Ferrari and McLaren is a tough proposition, but the way that Renault are performing, BMW have to think they have a chance to stay in front: maximising their early advantage is key, they will need to get both cars home in the points this weekend.

Reliability is still far from perfect, so the team might well be found exercising a strategy that seeks to minimise wear on the equipment.

9. Nick Heidfeld: having scored all the team's points to date, Heidfeld is again dominating his inexperienced teammate - however, he will have his work cut out staying ahead, as there is not knowing when he will face reliability issues himself.

10. Robert Kubica: to date, the season has not offered Kubica much luck, but the Pole is not yet showing any signs of stress over the slow results. Between startline incidents and imperfect reliability, there has been little opportunity to shine, but it is apparent that his race pace is there.

Objectives: Get both cars in the points...

Jarno Trulli leads teammate Ralf Schumacher © XPB/LAT

Toyota

The opening race of 2006 was a disaster for Toyota - opening a dismal three-race sequence that led to the dismissal of Mike Gascoyne. Prospects for this season seem brighter, but marginally: they are at least able to scrap for points, but there seems little chance of delivering a podium, let alone a race win.

Performance in Sepang illustrated that the team are capable of performing at a level that would let them compete for points, though it means putting together a decent qualifying session: considering Williams are the most likely competition for the final points, qualifying up with Webber is going to be important... or they will have to pass him on track. That said, race day performance was seriously lacking in Sepang, so a decent result will rely on getting to the bottom of that.

11. Ralf Schumacher: solid qualifying in Sepang was marred by a slow get-away on race day - leaving Schumacher stuck in the mid-field and unable to break free before a slow puncture sent him backwards. Considering the decent qualifying session, it was a disappointing result. A stronger race day is required this weekend.

12. Jarno Trulli: being stuck between the Renaults for much of the race in Sepang shows that the Toyota should be capable of scoring the same points, though whatever the 'technical problems' that led to him slowing down need to be fixed.

Objectives: repeat qualifying in Q3, and show race day pace to match.

Red Bull Racing

A tough opening race was expected last year, but the team actually showed some promise - somewhat more than they have been able to get together this season. Although Webber is getting the car in to Q3, he is fading without a decent shot at scoring points. The team are simply not getting enough from the package at this time.

That said, despite the initial struggle to get any pace from the car, there has been sufficient qualifying pace to illustrate it is capable of a quick lap: the team are slow in unlocking its potential, presumably showing they are struggling to make the car work with both prime and option tyres, but their pace will improve along with their understanding.

14. David Coulthard: as usual, qualifying is proving tough for the Scot, so he is being considerably outperformed in that arena by his teammate; however, unlike the previous rivals in Red Bull, he is not finding it so simple to make up the difference on race day. If he is to score points, then he is going to have to get more out of himself and the car on Saturday.

15. Mark Webber: with a couple of solid qualifying sessions under his belt, Webber is showing all the speed over a single lap that he is famed for - the problem is maintaining that pace through the race. He might again make it in to the final session, but that is likely to be the highlight of his weekend.

Objectives: Qualify well and get a car in to the points.

Nico Rosberg set fastest lap on his Grand Prix debut © XPB/LAT

Williams

At the start of 2006, Williams were very aware that they had some advantage with their chassis and Cosworth engine, but limited resources to continue development - accordingly, they attacked the opening race, with both cars finishing in the points. It was a solid start to what would turn out to be a disappointing year.

This time around, the team have Toyota power, but they are already showing more promise. Qualifying pace is pretty decent, they are performing ahead of Renault and Toyota, and they look like finishing in the points. The weekend ahead should offer much the same opportunity - though Renault are expected to have a better handle on their performance problems.

16. Nico Rosberg: with a solid start to the year, Rosberg has been impressing with his solid pace so far - his team have been applauding his mature attitude and its results. Getting the car well set up and qualifying strongly would set him up to score more points this weekend.

17. Alex Wurz: poor luck saw Wurz with a gearbox change and starting 20th in Sepang, fortune which prevented him getting into the points, which means that he is being overshadowed by his relatively inexperienced teammate - a stronger outing is required.

Objectives: Get both cars in to the points.

Toro Rosso

As a new team in 2006, Toro Rosso arrived with V10 engines and under a cloud, as their competition anticipated problems with the engine equivalence formula. In the event, they qualified off the back row, and had a car finish on the lead lap... an excellent beginning.

The latest outing illustrated that the car is probably capable of similar results this time around: they are starting to understand how to set it up, which is offering a noticeable improvement, so getting at least one car in the second qualifying session is fair; however, on race day, they are simply not playing at a level to expect points, barring a catastrophe amongst the front-runners. Running with the Honda outfits and ahead of Spyker should be possible, though.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: clearly overshadowing his teammate, Liuzzi has been showing better form on track, but a tangle with Sato cost him a wing on the last outing. If he wants to cement a leading role, then avoiding incidents that damage the car is going to be a factor.

19. Scott Speed: despite being closely matched with his teammate, Speed does not quite seem to be on the same pace so far - a strong outing this weekend would go a long way towards leveling that playing field.

Objectives: get both cars in Q2 and fight for a top ten finish.

Tiago Monteiro started the 2006 race from the pitlane © XPB/LAT

Spyker

In their previous guise as MF1-Toyota, the 2006 Bahrain GP proved to be a difficult weekend... and there is little chance of change this year. Last weekend, the team featured an aerodynamic upgrade that was expected to provide a noticeable step forward, but they were still unable to qualify off the back row. Race day saw Sutil crash out at the start and Albers on fire after the car stuck in gear.

The challenge for the weekend ahead has to include getting at least one car to the finish: there is little substitute for getting in the mileage, if only to provide testing feedback to the engineers and let the drivers work on getting something from the package.

Politics should still be an issue - another protest against Toro Rosso is likely, and Super Aguri could come under attack too.

20. Christijan Albers: with the car letting Albers down last weekend, he has every reason to expect a better outing in Bahrain. The Dutch driver is going to have to keep his wits about him though, as this car is fragile and needs coddling. When it was stuck in gear, he destroyed the engine by keeping it at full revs en route back to the pits - it is possible they may have fixed the gearbox, had that been the only thing keeping him from getting back on track.

21. Adrian Sutil: two outings, two early exits - both avoidable. Although Massa made it to Ferrari, there are few who can consistently drop it off the track and expect a career at this level, no matter how quick might be when they can keep it on the black stuff. Simply put, he needs to keep his act together long enough to be let down by the car, or finish the race.

Objectives: qualify off the back row; beat anyone on race day.

Super Aguri

A year ago, Super Aguri were the new team on the block, barely allowed on the track, and hoping only to avoid embarrassment. Sato pitted six times, Ide was presented with a stop-go, but they got a car to the finish. This year, they are looking to upstage their engine supplier for the third consecutive race weekend in qualifying. On race day, they need to continue improving their act in the pits, though: every second there hugely important for finishing places.

22. Takuma Sato: overtaking Button last weekend must have been a high point, but Sato's attacking style seems to lead to contact more often than strictly wise; although a strong start offers the cheapest gains, getting taken out at the start does the team no favours.

23. Anthony Davidson: although disappointed by technical issues and feeling ill, the Briton has shown some promising pace on occasion. Keeping his star alight is going to need some of that talent to show in qualifying or the race, though.

Objectives: Continue outqualifying the Honda outfit - and race for a top ten finish.