The 2007 Australian GP Preview

Analysis

Each year, Albert Park is transformed into a Grand Prix circuit, which means it is usually characterised by a very green surface, particularly at the outset of the weekend. The grip levels evolve quickly as rubber is laid down - though it should be slower this year, as the single tyre supplier means harder tyres.

Characterised by fast straights and big stops, effective brake cooling and good traction are both rewarded, although careful monitoring of engine cooling is also wise. Overtaking is not simple, so drivers will want to make the most of anything unexpected or they will be staring at the rear wing of the car in front for some time. The new safety car rules will probably get a solid workout...

Flashback

In 2006, qualifying followed the three session format that is in effect this year, seeing Button put his Honda squarely on pole position; the Renaults of Fisichella and Alonso followed by the McLarens of Raikkonen and Montoya came next, with Ralf Schumacher and Webber outperforming for Toyota and Williams behind. The BMW Saubers of Heidfeld and Villeneuve followed, with Trulli filling out the top ten after failing to set a time.

The race was eventful: before the start, Montoya spun out attempting to warm his tyres, but was able to restore his position when Fisichella stalled and a second parade lap was run. When the lights went out, Alonso made up for Fisichella's faux pas by getting alongside Button in to turn one - before being squeezed out by the Briton in to turn three. Raikkonen and Montoya similarly fought through the opening corners.

Behind the leaders, similar optimism had more impressive results: Massa and Klein tangled at the first corner, taking out Rosberg on their way out, while turn six saw Trulli diving inside Coulthard, who turned in, breaking Trulli's suspension. The safety car came out straight away.

At this point, the problem of running with low pressures from cold tyres became apparent. Montoya and Fisichella both spun on their cold tyres, but Alonso worked his tyres very hard throughout, maintaining heat that he used to great effect on the restart to cruise past Button for the lead. Many others who had worked better heat in to their tyres capitalised, too. Then Klien put his Red Bull in to the wall, prompting another safety car period.

The second restart, on lap nine, saw Alonso streak off as the McLarens attacked Button, who was unable to prevent Raikkonen passing despite a robust defence. Michael Schumacher, meanwhile, was having a torrid time, being passed by Liuzzi and taking trips over the grass. Fisichella, meanwhile, was passing cars quickly as he worked up from the back of the field.

Pitstops were looking relatively straightforward, though Webber didn't quite make his - stopping in the lead on lap 23 with a gearbox failure. Button again struggled with cold tyres, losing a place to Montoya, while Ralf Schumacher earned a drive-through for speeding in the pitlane.

Raikkonen, however, wished his stop had been scheduled earlier as a flat spotted tyre after the Button pass had put significant vibrations on the car. Michael Schumacher, finally getting some speed out of the car, was closing on Button when he put the car in to the barriers, causing the third safety car period and leading the remaining cars to make their stops.

More wheel to wheel racing on the restart had contact between a number of cars and close fighting through the corners; Villeneuve and Liuzzi tussled hard, with the latter sliding over the grass and into a wall. The incident probably cost him a handful of points and it resulted in a final safety car period.

When the restart took place with seventeen laps remaining, Alonso disappeared from second-placed Raikkonen. Schumacher was up to third and Montoya fourth - though not for long as the Colombian clipped a kerb, fish-tailing until he brought the car under control, before coming to a halt: the bump apparently activating a system that shut the engine down. Raikkonen pursued Alonso to the flag, though Button's engine gave up on the final lap.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
 1.  Alonso        Renault              (M)  1h34:27.870
 2.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes     (M)  +     1.829
 3.  R.Schumacher  Toyota               (B)  +    24.824
 4.  Heidfeld      BMW-Sauber           (M)  +    31.032
 5.  Fisichella    Renault              (M)  +    38.421
 6.  Villeneuve    BMW-Sauber           (M)  +    49.554
 7.  Barrichello   Honda                (M)  +    51.904
 8.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Ferrari     (M)  +    53.983

Fastest race lap: Raikkonen, 1:26.045

Qualifying best: Button, Q3, 1:25.229

Weather

As usual for Melbourne, the weather for this time of year is a little unpredictable. Showers are expected on Friday but temperatures are widely expected to be hot (in the mid-seventies), so teams will have to be sure they can cool their cars effectively. That said, there is a small but very definite chance of temperatures dropping, or showers falling on other days, too.

Strategy

With the restriction to a single tyre supplier leading to harder tyres, the choice this year is likely to be between one and two stops. Three stops is not out of the question, but it would put considerable pressure on the driver to make passes - and such a strategy is likely to be scuppered in the event of a badly timed safety car period.

Carrying more fuel increases flexibility, though the penalty with a single stop approach for top ten qualifiers would be giving up grid positions. When deciding fuel loads, the teams will be factoring in the chances of the safety car being deployed, and the cost of refuelling under the revised system.

Conclusions

Winter testing has shown up some interesting results and onlookers generally believe Ferrari to have a narrow advantage over McLaren, with Renault and BMW leading the charge to close them down. That is far from the whole story, though. Although the front runners have moved the goalposts, the performance of the whole grid has closed up. Accordingly, mistakes will be punished more severely than last year and fighting in the midfield will be fiercer - so any advantage will make a difference.

In the sport's current guise, even the best drivers need time to settle into a team and be completely comfortable with the systems in their new cars and with their relationships with new engineers, so continuity is a definite advantage. Accordingly, Massa might well show an edge at Ferrari, Fisichella has an opportunity to surprise with Renault and perhaps the Honda duo will be able to leverage familiarity in order to mix it up and score some points.

A Lap of Albert Park with Fernando Alonso

"Albert Park is a very long circuit with a lap that averages around one and a half minutes and covers 16 corners; most of which are stop and go.

"There are a large number of chicanes and as a result braking is very important, consequently the circuit is very hard on the brakes, and we run hard brake materials here, similar to Bahrain and Monza.

"It is also pretty hard on the rear tyres as there is a lot of acceleration coming out in second gear from the chicanes. It is a medium to high downforce circuit for us.

"For me the most difficult corner of the whole lap is Turn 11 and 12, which is a real high-speed chicane, a left-right corner taken in fifth gear. There is quite a long straight afterwards so you have to keep the momentum going to get the maximum speed as you come out of Turn 12.

"The last sector is very important because even though it is made up of mainly second and third gear corners there is a lot of lap time involved. As it is a pretty long lap it is important to use the kerbs as well because the chicanes have pretty slow speeds and you can always go over the first inside kerb.

"So the braking, traction and the ability to ride the kerbs are the most important factors for a good lap around Albert Park."

Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso testing in Bahrain © XPB/LAT

Team by Team

McLaren Mercedes

Finally, McLaren seem to have put together a car that is both quick and reliable. With only Ferrari showing an edge in winter testing, the team heads to Australia looking for a solid result. Technically, the car is an impressive evolution of its predecessor, though there is some thought that Ferrari have a better understanding of the Bridgestone tyre. As befits one of the big four, ambition for the year and the opening race is high: a double podium finish has to be the target.

1. Fernando Alonso: the reigning World Champion is hoping to have timed his move right, with McLaren in the ascendancy and his old team coming off the boil. Apparently settling in quickly, Alonso has put in a lot of testing miles and seems ready for the year ahead. He will be hoping to win the opening race, but doing so will take an outstanding performance. Failure to make the podium would be disappointing.

2. Lewis Hamilton: although young and in his first year, this Briton has been groomed for the role by McLaren for years. In Formula Three and GP2, he has impressed onlookers and already shown that his pace is to be reckoned with at McLaren. Quite how that translates to race day is going to be interesting to see - but if he can keep it on the track then there would be little surprise to see Hamilton on the podium in his first race.

Objectives: Get both cars on to the podium.

Renault

Not for the first time, Renault are optimistic despite heading to the opening race of the season with a car that is probably not the fastest around. They have again attempted to produce a car that is close to the fastest but also well balanced and quick (if not easy) to set up - and, of course, reliable.

Again, the team will be looking to force the pace; Ferrari and McLaren might have an edge on outright performance, but if they are pushed all the way then they may have cracks in the armour that can be exposed - an overheating engine, wearing brakes, or even driver error. Provided their drivers are able to push hard for the whole weekend, they could come away with excellent results.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: somewhat mercurial, Fisichella has often started seasons well only to struggle with bad luck and a loss of form. In winning the Australian race in 2005 Fisichella illustrated his ability to perform at this circuit and now that he is not standing in the shadow of Alonso he must look at the podium again this year, even if the top step could be a tall order.

The Renault team prepare the R27 © XPB/LAT

4. Heikki Kovalainen: quick in winter testing, the rookie seems likely to push his experienced teammate all season and may even out-perform him, provided he does not overdrive and make mistakes. Having tested last year, he is pretty well settled in to the team and needs only to become accustomed to the format of racing.

Objectives: Qualify well and target a podium finish - with both cars in the points.

Ferrari

Throughout winter testing, Ferrari have looked like one of the front runners and the former world champions stepped in to pole position at the recent Bahrain tests. The team clearly understands their Bridgestone tyres and has a package that performs well in most circumstances.

One of the reasons for this performance leap is that this car is not a simple evolution of its predecessor: there are some fundamental changes, which appears to leave plenty of scope for development as the season progresses. It also means that there may be some question marks over the reliability of the package.

Rivals will be looking to push them hard in an attempt to expose any problems - but with perhaps the most competitive package and a couple of quick, talented drivers, preventing them from winning is going to be tough.

5. Felipe Massa: although Massa illustrated plenty of pure speed last year, his consistency has been less than perfect. If he is to stay in front of Raikkonen here, then that is going to have to be addressed. Given Ferrari's apparent performance advantage and his own knowledge of the team, Melbourne represents perhaps the best chance he will have to win a race this year.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: having seen Alonso's star overtake his own - if marginally - the Finn does not have the same reputation for scoring every point possible and whether let down by his car or rare driving errors, he simply has not been able to deliver as consistently. Ferrari offers an opportunity to set that record straight, as they have built a competitive and mostly reliable car to showcase his talents. Of course, there's the question of beating Massa too, but there is little doubt that Raikkonen would be disappointed if he doesn't finish on the podium.

Objectives: Put both cars on the podium - winning the race.

Rubens Barrichello © LAT

Honda

Last year Honda demonstrated considerable pace throughout winter testing and entered the season with high expectations, only to discover they were not on the pace of Renault. This year, the pace in testing has not been so notable and the car has been disappointing in most regards. Promises have already been made for a significant update in Malaysia and in the meantime focus will be on improving understanding of the tyres and putting race mileage on the car.

Although the absolute pace of the car is a little suspect, which will make it tough to get into the final qualifying session, the team believes that they are competitive over a full race distance. They will have a chance to find out how accurate that assessment is on Sunday.

Honda are unlikely to be heavily involved in the customer chassis debate, but if they do well enough to get in to the points it is entirely possible that one of their competitors may make things interesting by protesting they are running a customer version of the Super Aguri chassis.

7. Jenson Button: with this year's tyres apparently rewarding a smooth driving style, you would think that Button was ideally placed to improve the performance gap relative to Barrichello, yet this has not been the case and the new car has been as quick in Barrichello's hands. At the first race weekend, he will be keen to show that he still has an upper edge - though bringing home points for the team is certainly important.

8. Rubens Barrichello: having settled in to the team and been able to offer considerable input in to the behaviour of the new car, Barrichello is able to show more of the natural pace that has characterised his career. His pace has improved, particularly on a quick lap, so it would be no surprise to see the balance between the Brazilian and Briton far more closely matched.

Objectives: Get both cars in to the points.

BMW Sauber

The word from winter testing was that BMW have produced a car that is consistently quick over race distances - which makes them a threat, even though they might be lacking an edge in qualifying trim. With reliability that has been far from perfect, however, they will need to work on keeping the car running for the full race distance.

Heading to a high downforce circuit, the team must be looking forward to testing the progress with their aerodynamic package, as a good showing would illustrate the value of the expenditure on CFD as a route forward.

Rather unusually for a would-be front-running team, they have promised third driver Sebastian Vettel a drive on Friday at the expense of one of their race drivers. It will be interesting to see what impact that has on the driver who loses track time.

9. Nick Heidfeld: when Kubica replaced Villeneuve last year, Heidfeld was forced to noticeably up his pace to retain an advantage over his teammate. His pace and experience told and he outperformed the youngster, but he is clearly going to have his work cut out staying ahead this year. Containing him at the first race would be a good starting point.

Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli confer during pre-season testing © XPB/LAT

10. Robert Kubica: although he has not raced in Australia, Kubica was on board for Friday testing in 2006; he should be expected to have little trouble getting back in the groove and being right on the top of his game. There are some differences, however. Last year, not only were mistakes expected and forgiven, being slower than Heidfeld was acceptable and in keeping with his rookie status. Now, expectations are higher. Fans are expecting him to start beating his teammate regularly if he is to fulfil his early promise.

Objectives: Qualify in the top ten and finish well into the points.

Toyota

After a tough winter testing alongside the competition, it seems that Toyota are again starting the season on the back foot. They launched the new car early, which allowed plenty of testing on Bridgestone's new tyres, but it seems not to have paid dividends alongside the competition.

On the positive side, the team has put a lot of miles on their chassis, so they should have a good understanding of where their baseline will be. If the weekend is impacted by changeable weather, they ought to be able to use that knowledge to move up the field.

Early races will probably be about damage limitation, measuring where the car is against the competition and scoring any points that are available. In Australia, with safety car periods expected to break up the running, looking for strategic advantage will probably be the key to fighting for 'best of the midfield' honours and getting at least one car in the points.

11. Ralf Schumacher: with renewal of his contract again looming, a strong performance is going to be required if he is to retain his seat. On a good day, Schumacher is as quick as anyone, so this motivation could see him produce an outstanding performance on race day, at least.

12. Jarno Trulli: having the safety net of a contract extension already in his pocket, Trulli ought to have no distractions in Melbourne. His ability to extract the best from a mediocre car might let him surprise a few people in qualifying, though he could then give up places over the course of the race.

Objectives: Get at least one car in to the final ten in qualifying and the points on race day.

Red Bull Racing

Attempting to make the most progress they could after bringing Adrian Newey on board, Red Bull have an almost completely new concept behind their car for the year ahead - one that is complicated by the need to take two different engines due to the creator's relationship with Toro Rosso.

Early testing was disappointing, as the car not only seemed to underperform but reliability was a disaster too. As reliability improved, the team started to understand the chassis and get more speed out of it - sometimes even looking pretty quick. They have some way to go before they get the best out of it, and even then will need further development before they are fighting at the front.

Nico Rosberg and Alexander Wurz testing at Jerez © Williams F1

Prospects for the weekend ahead are a little mixed. Even imperfect, the car is not too far off the pace over a distance, so results are likely to depend on what the team can do in qualifying. Accordingly, if they can get the car dialled in, then there is a chance of sneaking in to the final qualifying session, leading to a reasonable chance of scoring points.

14. David Coulthard: two years ago, Coulthard surprised his detractors by scoring regularly in a car that was off the pace, but consistent - even when he struggled to qualify well. If this year's car offers similar performance, then another steady trickle of points is probably in the offing.

15. Mark Webber: known as a qualifying specialist, Webber ought to out-perform his teammate over the single lap on most weekends - particularly in front of his home crowd. The Australian is less well known for his racing, but he is a battler who should prove difficult to pass on track, even though his battling spirit has cost him points in the past. Arguably the biggest thing he will want to take away from this weekend, though, is beating Williams.

Objectives: Improve understanding of the car set-up, make at least Q2 and get both cars to the finish.

Williams

Unable to capitalise on their solid early pace last year, the Williams team have been focusing on ensuring they are not caught out as they get their challenge back on track this season. The evidence of winter testing shows that the new car offers a definite step forward, closing performance to the front runners and offering a reasonable platform for racing.

More to the point, reliability has been targeted from the outset. With a tight budget, the team has been forced to concentrate their resources carefully. Fighting at the front was never likely, so the effort has been to make a decent step forward without compromising reliability.

The car seems quick enough to keep the midfield honest, but there are question marks over how fast it can be developed - so making the most of the early season fly away races is vital for their final standing on the championships.

16. Nico Rosberg: as the team struggled to develop the car last year, Rosberg's inexperience became evident alongside Webber as he struggled to get the most out of the weekend, though his opening race was a clear indication that there is plenty of talent on tap. If he can get the most out of the car this year, then a few surprises could be on the cards.

17. Alex Wurz: finally back in a race seat after years of performing in the testing role at both McLaren and Williams, Wurz has the opportunity to revive his driving career. That will be a tough challenge from a midfield team, particularly if he should struggle to contain the potential rising star of Rosberg. Doing well will require a careful balance between lending his experience to moving the team forward and concentrating on beating his teammate.

Objectives: Push the midfield teams - but get both cars to the finish.

Scott Speed inspects the Toro Rosso rear wing © XPB/LAT

Toro Rosso

Although thought of as the Red Bull junior team, there is no lack of ambition from the Toro Rosso outfit, who are intent on beating the senior squad this year. The teams are running almost the same chassis, though Toro Rosso are running with Ferrari power. This engine carries a definite penalty in terms of greater cooling requirements, but otherwise is expected to perform on a par with the Renault that powers Red Bull.

The team has mixed expectations for Australia, though they are lining up to perform in the midfield. Like many an Adrian Newey designed car, unlocking its potential can be tricky, as his fastest cars tend to be difficult to set up. Besides that, if the weather gets too hot, they will have to pay close attention to cooling, resulting in greater drag if they have to open up the bodywork. Outright performance should be sufficient to fight any midfield team, but whether at the front or back of that pack depends on car set up.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: with little to choose between the two Red Bull drivers, Liuzzi will be hoping that his greater experience will help him dial the car in quicker and gain an edge. Although capable of a good turn of speed, Liuzzi has struggled with consistency and made a number of mistakes so must concentrate on this while also being faster than his teammate.

19. Scott Speed: having had his re-signing delayed to the last minute, the American driver must be aware there may be a question mark over his future role in the team. He has struggled to beat his teammate and needs to turn that around this year. With a full season of Formula One experience under his seat, producing consistent results - and getting the car to the finish - will be the order of the day.

Objectives: Make it to Q2 - and get both cars to the finish.

Spyker

The current Spyker is off the pace, but has proven itself to be reliable, so the focus for the weekend ahead must be ensuring it gets to the finish in order to pick up any points that are dropped by others failing to go the distance. The team, therefore, will be looking for an eventful weekend for their rivals.

With on-track performance off the mark, distracting the competition might be a good way to move forward, so politics should feature prominently. The customer chassis scandal is likely to be mentioned, though it will probably prove to be a damp squib as this doesn't seem to fall under the auspices of the race stewards but will have to be taken up with the FIA themselves.

20. Christijan Albers: having put some good miles on the car in testing, Albers is comfortable in the cockpit and getting to grips with this year's tyre characteristics. Given that the car is off the pace, dominating his rookie teammate is the only important goal for Albers at the fly-away races, though race mileage is going to be important to continue car improvement.

The Super Aguri SA07 unveiled in Melbourne © LAT

21. Adrian Sutil: as a rookie, there is little pressure on Sutil to do anything other than stay within shouting distance of his teammate as he gets his first full race behind him. Of course, Sutil did not get his seat by sitting back and after recovering from a season of being dominated by Lewis Hamilton he will be looking to take the fight to Albers. His progress through the weekend will be interesting.

Objectives: Qualify anywhere other than last - and get both cars to the finish.

Super Aguri

With the official launch of the new car anticipated at the start of the weekend, it is difficult to know exactly what to expect of Super Aguri. If, as it is widely expected, the new car proves to be an enhanced version of the Honda chassis they have been testing, it has the potential to get right into the midfield. Then again, if the changes to the chassis have caused the baseline set-ups to change, the team will spend the opening weekend trying to understand how to make the car work.

Although there were low expectations last year, the sponsors are now looking for genuine progress and will be less forgiving if the team struggles at the back of the grid for long. With the same Honda powerplant as the works team and a development of the 2006 chassis that won a race the midfield seems attainable. There is, however, likely to be an interesting political situation once they reveal their new chassis, as their tail-end competition will need little excuse to try and embroil them in the customer chassis debate.

22. Takuma Sato: last season, with the spotlight at the other end of the grid, Sato was a revelation, consistently blowing away his teammates all year. Although there were question marks over the speed of those drivers, there was no doubt that Sato was driving the wheels of his car. With a more competitive drive this year, he will be looking forward to getting involved in the midfield in Melbourne.

23. Anthony Davidson: having produced some outstanding laps in Friday testing for Honda, the Briton has a chance to show what he is made of with a regular race seat. Ambitious and fast, the youngster can enhance his name considerably by taking to the fight to Sato, even if the new car is disappointing when it appears.

Objectives: Make it to Q2 and fight in the midfield on race day.