The 2006 United States Grand Prix Preview

Formula One heads to the event which caused considerable embarrassment in 2005 as a six-car race left the weekend labelled a fiasco, booed by the hundreds of thousands of fans that travelled to Indianapolis. With the future of the event under negotiation, a solid show is required if the reputation of the sport is to recover...

Analysis

It seems almost as though Formula One is returning to the scene of a crime, after the Michelin tyre fiasco in 2005: the six-car event was certainly memorable for all the wrong reasons, even if it did afford Ferrari their only win. Early indications are that a repeat is not on the cards: with the return of tyre changes, even if a manufacturer is again overly aggressive, the race should take place.

This track is interesting, as the tremendously long straight is countered by a very slow, twisty infield. The straight rewards low drag and powerful engines, whilst good balance, downforce and mechanical grip are required for the infield section.

In recent years, teams have discovered that the balance for a fast lap is medium high downforce, which costs speed on the straight, so they progressively take off downforce to reduce drag until they think they are no longer vulnerable to being passed on the straight, which means the teams with the best engines tended to have the biggest advantage as they could carry more downforce down the main straight.

Then again, with the move to V8 engines and softer tyres, the balance could change: with less grunt available on the main straight, the cars will spend relatively longer there, probably requiring considerable reduction in drag - probably down to Canadian levels.

Of course, they can keep the downforce levels up, provided the teammates are prepared to work together carefully in qualifying: they then need to catch a tow off one another on the main straight to compensate for the extra drag and raise their overall speeds: though they may then prove vulnerable with a lower top speed on race day and be easier to pass on track.

Flashback

In 2005, a series of exploding tyres in practice showed that Michelin had real problems - and indeed, they recommended that their teams withdraw rather than attempt to race, as their tyres simply would not do the distance. Accordingly, qualifying was something of an irrelevance, as the dominant performance from the Michelin teams proved irrelevant.

On race day, the Michelin runners all peeled in to the pitlane at the end of the parade lap, leaving the Ferrari, Jordan and Minardi teams on the grid. The race started uneventfully and ran to completion to the jeers of the onlooking crowd - and occasional thrown beer.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari          (B)  1h29:43.181
 2.  Barrichello   Ferrari          (B)  +     1.522
 3.  Monteiro      Jordan-Toyota    (B)  +     1 lap
 4.  Karthikeyan   Jordan-Toyota    (B)  +     1 lap
 5.  Albers        Minardi-Cosworth (B)  +    2 laps
 6.  Friesacher    Minardi-Cosworth (B)  +    2 laps

Fastest lap: Schumacher, 1:11.497

Weather

The weekend should present mostly sunny conditions with some danger of thunderstorms over the weekend: winds are largely expected to be low and consistent in direction and strength.

Tyres

You might think that following on from their debacle last year, Michelin would be playing it safe this time - but they are not intending to hand any advantage to Bridgestone on this circuit or any other. Rather, they are expected to be a little conservative on their prime tyres, but aggressive on the option rubber.

The reduced engine capacity should mean slightly less loading on the banked corner than last year, so even though this will require specialist tyres from the hard end of the range for this race, it will not necessarily be the toughest challenge of the year.

Teams that are considering three stops will be able to look at far softer tyres than one stoppers - which could offer good overtaking opportunities.

Strategy

A long pit straight means that each stop is quite expensive: making three stops work would require drivers to put in qualifying-like laps, irrespective of traffic. A single stop is perhaps the best for making up places for faster cars caught out in qualifying, though the extra fuel load would be troublesome for defending down the straight at the start of each stint. Most teams will probably opt for two stops.

Conclusions

It is hard to get away from the outstanding performances that Fernando Alonso and Renault have been able to put on at every event this season, so he has to start again as hot favourite, with Michael Schumacher - a threat whenever his Bridgestone tyres are on par - and Kimi Raikkonen in the slowly improving McLaren close behind.

Others with a decent chance of showing up on the podium are Montoya, in what is something of a home race, and Fisichella, if he finally manages a run of decent luck. The final points-paying positions should feature some interesting battles between Williams, Honda and Toyota with BMW and Red Bull looking to take advantage from any mistakes.

A lap of Indianapolis with Juan Pablo Montoya

Powering up to some 343km/h in sixth gear as you cross the famous yard of bricks, you then brake hard for the tight right hander that takes you onto the twisty infield section of the track. The 90-degree turn is taken at 123km/h in second gear and flows into an equally tight left-hander, which is taken at of 122km/h, still in second.

The circuit then gently bends to the right as you accelerate to turn four. You brake from speeds of around 220km/h in third to 130km/h for the right hander. A short burst of power takes you to turn five, a 45-degree right hander, which is taken at 245km/h in fourth gear.

Another quick spurt on the throttle leads to the long 180-degree left hander of turn six. This swings you into turn seven, a right-hander that is negotiated at similar speeds and leads onto the back straight. Accelerating towards the 90-degree turn eight, you reach 300km/h in seventh gear before dropping to 114km/h in second for the left hander.

The s-bends of turns nine and ten follow immediately. The tight right-hander of nine is taken at 59km/h in first gear, with your speed increasing ever so slightly to 72km/h in first for the left hander of ten. On the exit it's quick on the power along the short straight that leads to the final corner of the infield section, reaching some 200km/h, before braking to 134km/h to negotiate the right hander. Accelerating out, the circuit begins to curve to the right as you rejoin the oval.

Flicking up through the gears, you keep hard on the throttle through the rights of turns twelve and thirteen, which leads you back onto the pit straight. Turn twelve is taken at 275km/h and by the time you reach the long, sweeping banking of turn 13, you are travelling at some 316km/h in top gear as you begin another lap.

Team by Team

Renault

It was not quite the perfect weekend in Canada, as Fisichella's false start and subsequent drive-through penalty restricted him to fifth place; but the pole to flag drive by Alonso was ample evidence that Renault are very much in control at this point.

There is little reason to expect things to change in Indianapolis unless Michelin have again made a complete mess of their tyre selection: the Renault package is very solid in low downforce configuration, though it seems to have given up some ground to Ferrari and McLaren. Another double podium has to be their target again.

If Bridgestone are on the top of their game, then Ferrari are going to be the biggest threat: their package is very solid and lacking only the rubber to give them the chance to take the fight right to Renault.

Drivers: Giancarlo Fisichella's false start was a costly mistake; he ought to have finished on the podium, perhaps challenging for the win, had it not been for the drive through penalty. Then again, Fernando Alonso has been in fantastic form and enters the coming weekend as firm favourite.

Objectives: Win, with both cars on the podium.

Kimi Raikkonen, McLaren; finished 3rd in the Canadian Grand Prix at Montreal © LAT

McLaren Mercedes

Despite being pipped to second by Schumacher in Canada, the McLaren team clearly showed their hand - this car is noticeably closer to the Renault in performance, at least in low downforce trim. Montoya's early exit, recovering after a tangle with Rosberg, was something of a frustration but the prospects are looking brighter.

If they have done their maths right with the tyres, then perhaps the next race is one that they can realistically aim to win: the car is quick in this configuration and both drivers motivated. A solid qualifying and decent strategy combined with Renault being distracted by Ferrari could well give them all they need to make it to the top of the podium.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen seems to be his usual blazingly quick self, making the most of the car whenever he can, so he will be expected to get the car as far forward as it is capable of going; the rumours of his opportunities around the paddock continue to leave him unruffled, but very much in demand.

By contrast, Juan Pablo Montoya seems a little less settled. the Colombian is clearly very quick but not quite as consistent as his teammate, leading more often to disappointing than decent results as he works hard to prove himself.

Objectives: Both cars in the points, potentially win.

Ferrari

Although the Ferrari was clearly quick in Canada, getting stuck behind Trulli for the opening laps of the race allowed the competition to get a lead that was tough to challenge: the car may have had the pace to pass during pitstops if it was close enough

Winning the race in the USA is not going to be trivial, as the car is evidently not the best on the circuit; getting to the top step of the podium would require slick teamwork and a solid strategy... not impossible.

Drivers: Michael Schumacher's win last season was based on the withdrawal of the Michelin teams: he will be very keen to show this year that he has to pace to seriously challenge at the front.

Felipe Massa continues to show less than a stellar performance, though his qualifying sessions at least seem to be a little better recently. His one-stop strategy to finish fifth at the last outing - unglamorous but effective - which coincidentally illustrated the potential for single stopping. A strong performance is going to have to come soon, though, if he is not to discover his seat to be at risk in Ferrari.

Objectives: Both cars in the points, with one on the podium.

Toyota

It was another very mixed weekend for Toyota in Canada. Jarno Trulli clearly made the most of the new chassis, discovering the combination of blinding qualifying pace and middling racing that reflects his reputation; however, he brought home points for sixth whilst Ralf Schumacher had another miserable weekend.

Last season Toyota took pole position before withdrawing because they were running on Michelin rubber - so it would not be a complete surprise to discover they are at the sharp end of the grid again. Come race day, competing with the likes of Renault, McLaren and Ferrari is going to prove tough, so bringing home a podium finish would be tough, but they have to be looking for points finishes.

Jarno Trulli, Toyota; 2006 Canadian Grand Prix at Montreal © XPB/LAT

Drivers: As a result of a wrong tyre choice, Ralf Schumacher was disappointing in Canada - if he wishes to extend his contract with the team, he is going to have to improve his game, though doing so at the US Grand Prix may not be trivial as his teammate is very quick here.

Jarno Trulli might be taking heart from his revived qualifying pace, which confirms his Monaco belief that the B chassis is more suited to his style. A repeat performance would be welcomed by his team this weekend.

Objectives: get both cars in the points.

Williams Cosworth

After a difficult weekend in Canada, where Rosberg obstructed Webber in qualifying then collided with Montoya in the race, and Webber never recovering from his miserable qualifying, the team are looking for a better outing at the US event to get something from their trip to this side of the Atlantic.

If Bridgestone have done their homework right, then Williams really have a chance to take away points from Indianapolis. The Cosworth engine is a pretty decent power plant, though no longer the most powerful; the package seemed to be pretty quick in Canada, but only within a very tight temperature range: the tyres operational window seemed to be their problem.

Drivers: One positive from Nico Rosberg's early exit in Canada is that the team will have a nearly new engine for the event, with no need to think about the race that follows: he ought to be able to turn up the revs and gain some advantage over the race distance - not to mention put in more practice laps to help Alexander Wurz get the team set up.

The team will be looking for Mark Webber to put on a better performance this time around, qualifying well up the field if he is to stand any chance of finishing up there: even if Bridgestone get the tyres right, at least McLaren, Renault and Ferrari will be expecting to take the lions share of points, so there will be no room for mistakes.

Objectives: Get the cars into the points.

Honda

There was little redeeming about the Canadian experience for Honda: even though they qualified in the top ten, race day saw Barrichello retire and Button fade out of the points as his grip levels dropped - enough so that Coulthard was able to get around him at the end of the race.

So what prospect is there in the US? Well, if the problems are related to the tyres, then the revised compound available this weekend might cure some of their ills. Of course, if the problem with the car stems from an inability to get heat into the tyres without wearing them too fast, then they will again be presented with tough choices for race day.

Reversing their fortunes will prove tough, however, unless the front runners struggle with reliability: with no development since the last event and roughly the same packages available, only tyre improvements will count for much and that will apply to everyone. Scoring points has to be the target, but achieving them at a circuit where overtaking is actually possible will be tough.

Drivers: Rubens Barrichello has always been pretty quick at Indy, though not as fast as Schumacher when he drove for Ferrari; perhaps this will be his chance to shine and bring home some decent points for Honda. Jenson Button, meanwhile, not only has to be ruing the slight error that gave Coulthard a run to pass him in Canada, but this is not his best circuit either. If he doesn't get his act together then another miserable weekend might be in store.

Objectives: Top ten qualifying and get at least on car in the points.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

Red Bull © XPB/LAT

The lesson from Canada was that patience under pressure pays off: Coulthard kept his head whilst others struggled, starting from last on the grid after an engine change before sneaking past Jenson Button and into the points.

This strategy worked very well for the Scot and Red Bull in 2005, though the results have been slower this season as all the teams have raised both their performance and reliability: accordingly, repeating the point-scoring event at the US Grand Prix is going to rely on a number of the other teams having considerably more problems than they usually do. Perhaps their best chance would be if the thunderstorms passed over and caused some confusion.

Drivers: David Coulthard will be looking to repeat his point-scoring run if possible, but the prospects are not amazingly good for doing so; that has not stopped him from working hard to score points so far this year, and that has paid dividends, so another spirited drive should be in prospect.

Christian Klien's future with the team is starting to look a little murky - without showing that he can outperform his teammate on a daily basis, his lower experience leaves him on the back foot for negotiating an extension to his contract.

Objectives: Score another point

BMW Sauber

Canada was a little bittersweet for BMW-Sauber, who were on track to score a double points finish until Jacques went off track attempting to pass a backmarker - a good result after promising test led to a tougher than expected qualifying session.

Historically, the team have done well at Indianapolis so they must be heading there with relatively optimistic mood: if the are able to get in a solid qualifying session then perhaps they are able to put together another double points finish.

America is an important BMW market, so this is a significant weekend for them, if not actually a home race. It is little surprise that they are targeting this event: the showings at Silverstone and Canada would tend to indicate that midfield momentum is coming their way - provided Bridgestone are unable to raise their game and bring rubber that makes the likes of Toyota and Williams more competitive.

Drivers: Robert Kubica continues to impress, with some very solid laps in Canada. He will be a key element of the team's assault on points for the weekend ahead, with the laps he runs saving the main drivers engines for the main event.

Nick Heidfeld has an affinity for this circuit and ought to have a decent weekend; that said, there has been little to choose from between him and Jacques Villeneuve recently, and the latter sees this as another 'home' event, thanks to the strong Canadian presence and US fans from his CART days - except that this is one where he doesn't have a jinx that makes him crash.

Objectives: Get both cars into qualifying three and then the points.

Midland Toyota

The start of the race must have sickened the management of this team, as their drivers convincingly made a hash of the opening lap by colliding with each other for the second time this year. Albers' departure saved the field a car to lap, whilst Monteiro suffered considerable damage and limped to the finish. The team were only saved the ignominy of being beaten by a Super Aguri when Sato crashed it...

Midland teammates Christijan Albers and Tiago Monteiro tangle in the hairpin, 2006 Canadian Grand Prix at Montreal © LAT

Presumably, by the time the race starts in Indianapolis, the drivers will have been on the receiving end of a stiff talking to and will at least ensure there's no repeat of the Monaco and Canada embarrassments. That doesn't much raise the chance of scoring points, but at least then there would be a chance of finishing the race.

Talking of which, the Toyota engine ought to be halfway useful on the main straight in Indy, so there will be some optimism. Getting past the likes of Red Bull and BMW is going to be a trial, but the possibility of thunderstorms does mean that there is a real chance they will be able to capitalise in the transitions.

Drivers: Christijan Albers and Tiago Monteiro have both worked hard this season and are continuing to fight each other for dominance, but they seem to be making little impression. Each is looking for a drive in a more competitive team and both have more to do if they are even to keep their seats with Midland, despite the money they bring to the table.

Objectives: Beat a Toro Rosso.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

It was as much a surprise to Toro Rosso as their competition that their V10-powered cars proved so quick on the straights in Canada: even with the restrictions, the torque from their engine evidently helped them get up to their top speed in a hurry.

The Indianapolis circuit might prove interesting too: as the downforce comes off, their top speeds should be an advantage on the main straight, provided they are able to get close enough through the infield to the car in front to catch them.

Drivers: Vitantonio Liuzzi will be looking for a cleaner race this weekend: his contact with Mark Webber and consequential wing change means that any chance of scraping into the points was lost - a solid performance on Sunday could perhaps net that point.

Scott Speed has not been amazingly consistent, though he can be very quick. The impact of racing at home will be interesting to see: either he will be lifted by the experience and find half a second a lap, or his youthful exuberance will again get the better of him, in which case he will overdrive the car and significantly underperform.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish, perhaps even chase a point.

Super Aguri Honda

Another miserable outing in Canada highlights the plight of this team: they nearly capitalised on a miserable weekend by Midland to beat one of the cars home, but Sato crashed on the last lap, which pretty much sums up their season to date.

Franck Montagny, Super Aguri; 2006 Canadian Grand Prix at Montreal © Super Aguri

It is hard to see what else they might bring to the table in the United States. This outfit is plucky and continues to make microscopic improvements whilst pounding around at the back of the field; their drivers are working hard, but the equipment simply doesn't give them a platform. Until the new chassis is available, there is little brightness in their immediate future.

If there is a bright spot, perhaps the Honda power plant will be sufficient to let them do something about actually beating a Midland at the forthcoming race, if they make another dogs dinner of their weekend.

Drivers: Takuma Sato runs well at Indy, but doesn't have a platform the will give him any real chance to shine this week. Franck Montagny continues to gain experience and close in on his team-leader's performance, but this track suits the Japanese - beating him would be a fillip, but unexpected.

Objectives: Finish the race.