The 2006 Turkish GP Preview

Following a stunning Hungarian Grand Prix and the summer break, the circus is heading to Turkey, host of one of the best races in 2005 - and one of the toughest to get to, as hours of traffic queues face the teams each day. With the championship contenders only ten points adrift, this is a vital race for Ferrari and Renault.

Analysis

The Turkish Grand Prix is staged at the Istanbul Parkway, a flowing, anti-clockwise circuit that is challenging and technical, with overtaking opportunities for the bold. It requires medium downforce, balance, a powerful engine and a smooth driver to make the most of it.

Last season's event was a big hit with the teams and drivers, as they were challenged by the undulating, fatiguing layout. The quadruple apex turn eight in particular caught out a lot of drivers over the weekend. This year, the teams will be looking to see how the track surface has developed: it could be more bumpy, the abrasion characteristics will be different and besides, the there will be further impact from operating with the V8 engines.

Approaching the weekend, the anticipated heat means that most teams will be looking to protect their engines, so third drivers are going to be very important on Friday: those that make mistakes and fail to complete their programs will result in miles for the main drivers, probably raising reliability concerns for the race.

With the fast multiple apex turn eight catching out so many drivers last season, it can be expected to play a part again this year: qualifying will be interesting if there are flags caused by spinners here, whilst pressure on race day is likely to result in interesting consequences for any who are marginally off the line - something that is quite likely as fatigue levels rise.

The championship contenders are expected to fight at the front, but there are wild cards with McLaren and Honda looking relatively competitive too: the prospects are for a strongly contended race weekend.

Flashback 2005

In 2005, qualifying saw Raikkonen on pole with a heavy fuel load, leaving Fisichella ruing an easy opening to his qualifying attempt as he came home second, pipping Alonso. Montoya was fourth after an early qualifying lap, with Trulli fifth. Button threw away a front row position to finish thirteenth, just behind Coulthard, whilst Michael Schumacher, Karthikeyan, Villeneuve and Doornbos all failed to set times.

On race day, BAR started Sato from the pitlane in order to fuel him up, after the stewards deleted his time - leaving Schumacher at the back of the grid. The start saw Raikkonen slow off the line, Fisichella capitalising to move ahead with Alonso in third, but right on the Finn's tail, where he harried him over the opening of the lap. Fisichella ran wide at turn nine, letting Raikkonen get alongside, but the lighter Renault was faster on the straight... leading to Alonso running alongside both in to turn 12 and out-braking Raikkonen for second. A lap later, team orders saw him slip in to the lead...

Further back, Schumacher avoided trouble and moved up to eleventh, Massa pitted for a new nose; Klien and Coulthard climbed up to seventh and eighth. Button was twelfth after the start, but passed the Ferrari's in consecutive laps. The Williams then both suffered right rear punctures in short succession, resulting in Schumacher and Webber colliding as the Australian attempted to unlap himself, leading both to pit for repairs.

The Renault duo stopped early, with Toyota following a few laps later - leaving a light Button harrying Alonso until he could force his way through on lap 20, just before his stop. Montoya stopped at the same time, but after the lollipop was lifted and dropped back down, he knocked down a mechanic. Webber shortly came back in and retired with another right rear puncture... whilst Heidfeld spun out a couple of laps later with yet another right rear puncture!

Red Bull ran their cars heavy, so they moved up the order as others stopped; Raikkonen held a comfortable lead at the front whilst Alonso challenged his teammate. The Renaults proceeded to again stop far earlier than the McLarens: the team looked set for a 1-2 finish, until Monteiro crashed into the lapping Montoya three laps from the end: the damaged McLaren lost downforce, leaving it vulnerable to Alonso for a pass before the end.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes  (M)  1h24:34.454
 2.  Alonso        Renault           (M)  +    18.609
 3.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes  (M)  +    19.635
 4.  Fisichella    Renault           (M)  +    37.973
 5.  Button        BAR-Honda         (M)  +    39.304
 6.  Trulli        Toyota            (M)  +    55.420
 7.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Cosworth (M)  +  1:09.296
 8.  Klien         Red Bull-Cosworth (M)  +  1:11.623

Fastest lap: Montoya, 1:24.770

Weather

It is expected to be a hot weekend, with temperatures in the high 30s and moderate winds. Track temperatures will be high, requiring teams to consider effective cooling solutions as well as tyre performance windows. There is a small chance of rain, but that would be unexpected.

Tyres

The unexpectedly cool conditions in Hungary impacted Bridgestone's performance - and their wet weather tyres were under par. Even with Michelin coming back to form, Bridgestone should have a slight edge in the heat, though their teams will be hoping it does not rain.

Strategy

Two stops seems be the most clear-cut approach to the race, though an aggressive three-stop strategy could be marginally faster for front runners if they are able to get on with passing. Those who find themselves a further back will do well to consider a heavy fuel load at the start.

Conclusions

With a circuit that exercises the whole package - including the drivers - this ought to be an interesting race. Strategy will be important, but with on-track overtaking possible, and drivers able to make some difference over the lap, this should be an interesting race.

Alonso and Schumacher are widely expected to fight for the win - but Raikkonen is not going to be complacent in his defence and should be harrying the pair. With Toyota and Honda just off the pace, they are more likely to compete behind these three with the other support players - which is to say they will all be looking to finish on the podium.

A lap of Istanbul with Kimi Raikkonen

A lap of the Istanbul Speed Park begins on the long start-finish straight, before braking hard for Turn 1 which is a 90º sharp left hander. The track then drops steeply downhill on a short run before flicking you right through turn two, which sees you reaching speeds of 310km/h before reaching a slow left-right-left. Through turns 3 to 5 the speed goes down to 100km/h and second gear as the middle right hander is very tight, slow and it drops very steeply on its apex.

Accelerating out, there is a short straight where we reach speeds of 250km/h in fifth gear and this leads to a wide right hand hairpin, Turn 7. After this corner there is another short straight before entering, the most difficult corner of this track, already popular with most of the drivers, which is the triple apex left hander of Turn 8. This is extremely fast with speeds reaching over 300km/h by the exit and will see us under load for a long time.

This swings you round onto another straight and sees you accelerate up to 320km/h in sixth gear before coming up to a slow left right chicane at turns nine and ten where you drop down to 95km/h and second gear, which takes you onto the back section of the circuit. This comprises of two long straights punctuated in the middle by a sweeping right bend which will easily be taken flat at speeds of 314km/h.

We reach the highest speeds on the circuit along here and it is the best overtaking area of the whole circuit. You will need to brake very hard at the end of this long straight cutting your speed to 93km/h in second gear for the tight left-right-left complex at the end of the track that will bring you back onto the start-finish straight.

Team by Team

Renault

With the mistakes of Hungary that saw Alonso's race finish when a wheel nut came adrift, and Fisichella crashing out, Renault are looking for a return to form in Turkey.

The Istanbul circuit ought to suit the package, though they are heading there considering two different initial configurations, depending whether the mass damper appeal goes in their favour. If it is deemed a legal device, it is worth a couple of tenths per lap, which would probably put them on a level pegging with Ferrari, but the biggest issue is the impact to their development momentum as they have had to work on how to deliver the car's potential without the device.

Playing the championship game has to be the key to Renault's remaining races, so covering Ferrari is going to be of paramount importance, even if it might mean missing out on the race win: expect a slightly more conservative Alonso this time out.

Giancarlo Fisichella and Fernando Alonso © LAT

Drivers: Giancarlo Fisichella ran well in Turkey last year, and will be looking for a repeat this season; however, his principle duty will clearly be as support player to the championship leader.

The Spaniard goes to Turkey looking like the underdog, with Schumacher looking so strong recently, but even if he is being a little conservative in order to maximise points, it would be a mistake to think that he won't take every opportunity that presents itself this weekend in the quest to win.

Objectives: Win - but more importantly, beat Schumacher and Ferrari.

McLaren Mercedes

After the performance in Hungary, it is clear that McLaren have found some of their old pace and can again compete at the front - but they are also making mistakes, which leaves them losing points that ought to be there for the taking.

The team will be hoping that Renault and Ferrari will be pre-occupied with covering each other in the race ahead, which would offer them a very realistic chance of putting one over them to win the race - the package is now close to front-running pace.

With this being the 200th race in partnership with Mercedes, having something to show for the occasion is going to be important: it is possible the team have some solid developments coming through to help them step up the performance level again.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen is optimistic that he can defend his win from last year, and perhaps he has the package to do so again, provided there are no mistakes. The Finn is fast and still hungry, so watch out for him in qualifying, but Alonso and Schumacher will be tough to beat over the full distance.

Pedro de la Rosa's run to a podium finish in Hungary was his best to date, despite being only a solid performance as second driver. A repeat would be useful this weekend, though, as the team could use the points.

Objectives: Win this race.

Ferrari

Having undoubtedly dropped the ball in Hungary, coming away with only one point when five might have been salvaged, Ferrari are heading to Istanbul looking for a transformation back to the form they showed in Germany.

The Turkish experience was not good for Ferrari in 2005, but they have a substantially better package available this year. Although the circuit is likely to have evolved, this team are one of the best at adapting and they have a car that has demonstrated adaptability all season.

With a high temperatures forecast this weekend, expect Bridgestone to be back on form: provided Renault are unable to run their mass dampers, this should be the team to beat. Even if the French outfit do get their hardware back on, a competitive weekend is in prospect.

Felipe Massa and Michael Schumacher © LAT

Drivers: Michael Schumacher has the talent and package to win this race, but avoiding mistakes is going to be important, particularly in qualifying. Overtaking, whilst possible, will be tough, so staying ahead of Alonso is vital.

Felipe Massa has a vital role to play as number two: if the package is up to the task, he must also beat Alonso in order to maximise Schumacher's chances of overtaking the Spaniard in the championship - at this point in the season, he ought to be dialled in to the car and capable of staying within a couple of tenths of his team leader.

Objectives: Win - but more importantly get both cars ahead of Alonso.

Toyota

Running in colder than expected weather with Bridgestone tyres, Toyota did well to make sixth and eighth in qualifying, but struggled in the wet on race day. That said, Schumacher's sixth place was a good result under the circumstances, but frustrating as their arch rivals Honda took a first win.

Prospects for Turkey are looking pretty good: with hotter weather and Bridgestone tyres that welcome the warmth, be prepared for a decent outing from the Japanese outfit. The car has been improving all season, and particularly as the relationship with the tyre manufacturer has improved since the mid-season update, and new components have been forthcoming at almost every invent. For this weekend, the team are promising a new front end.

Beating Honda remains important, particularly the competition limits the points they will be able to score: still, a double points finish would be welcome.

Drivers: Jarno Trulli has been putting together some good qualifying sessions, and this technical circuit should offer a solid opportunity to surprise - if he keeps his act together, then the front row might even be in reach, which should lead to a respectable points finish.

Ralf Schumacher is no slouch either; another top six qualifying performance ought to be possible, with the potential for a strong race to follow.

Objectives: Qualify strongly and finish with both cars in the points.

Williams Cosworth

It has to be said that Williams have been having a tough season, but Hungary was dismal, despite a respectable qualifying by Webber: neither driver made it to the finish, and the car that was running did so at the back of the package before electrical problems and a crash sent the team off on their summer break early.

Turkey was the scene of a disaster for the team last year: both cars suffered repeated right rear tyre failures - no surprise they went home early. This year, they are in need of a turn around in fortunes. Actually, it is not impossible. Bridgestone should be at least on a par with Michelin here, perhaps better if the temperatures are above expectations: furthermore, the car really is improving in recent events, as Webber's qualifying performance showed.

Mark Webber © LAT

For this event, finishing in the points would be a welcome change of pace, though it is unlikely they will get near the podium.

Drivers: Mark Webber hasn't let his imminent departure slow him down so far, and there is little reason to think he will this weekend either. The Turkish circuit could well suit him, so a solid qualifying is in prospect - it will be interesting to see how that translates into race pace.

Nico Rosberg was disappointing in Hungary, both with his Q1 qualifying and off the pace running in the wet. The car is clearly not always easy to drive, as the youngster has shown himself capable of setting stunning times when he is properly dialled in. He must be looking to get on a par with Webber this weekend.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish - preferably scoring a point.

Honda

Even if luck played a part in Honda's Hungary weekend, coming away with the first win for the team and their lead driver has rescued their season. Despite an engine change that put Button down in fourteenth place on the grid, they did not put a step wrong during the race, capitalising on a good wet weather package and the misfortunes of the usual suspects.

Carrying the momentum into Turkey is not going to be easy: expectations are now higher, but the competition is certainly not easier as Renault and Ferrari battle for the championships. Even with developments coming through, finishing on the podium is going to be a challenge.

Drivers: Jenson Button's win in Hungary has been a long time coming, and ought to be a confidence boost ahead of Turkey, where he put in a strong performance last season. A strong qualifying is probably to be expected, but, boosted by his win, quite what he can achieve in the race will be interesting to discover.

Rubens Barrichello had something of an off weekend on the last outing, when he has just been getting to the point of challenging evenly with his teammate. The Brazilian is, however, very quick, and should not be dismissed - as his relationship with the team continues to develop, so will his consistency.

Objectives: Podium finish - with both cars in the points.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

Another solid performance from Coulthard brought home a fifth place finish in Hungary as the team made the most of the weather - and what fortune was coming their way. Unfortunately, Klien started from the pits after a fuel leak, robbing the team of a potential second points finish.

This weekend, they will need to keep track of the temperatures, or they will end up turning down the revs just to make it to the finish. Besides that, a strong performance from the team will still leave them struggling to get into the points against a strong midfield - beating BMW-Sauber would be a good result, though Williams might also struggle.

David Coulthard and Christian Klien © XPB/LAT

Drivers: David Coulthard has been continuing to show the form that got him rehired, and delivers for the team whenever opportunity arises - his experienced head has seen off an inadequate challenge from Christian Klien this year. Knowing his seat is gone for next season, Klien on the other hand is racing for future Red Bull sponsorship - and personal pride.

Objectives: Score another point.

BMW Sauber

It has to be said that BMW made the most of the weekend in Hungary, first running Kubica as a surprise replacement for Villeneuve, qualifying well, then working Heidfeld up to third for their first podium as a works outfit. Unfortunately, Kubica lost his point for finishing with an underweight car.

After a strong weekend, the team are carrying solid momentum and should be looking to score more points in Turkey. The holiday period might have given the drivers a break, but the wind tunnel has been in action, so enhancements to at least the aero package should be expected.

With the cars reliable and basically quick, another solid weekend ought to see the team scoring points, but they are clearly in the process of shifting their sights to 2007.

Drivers: Although Nick Heidfeld had a great race, scoring a podium finish after a wheel to wheel battle with Michael Schumacher, and is expected to continue putting in a solid performance, quick Nick is facing the prospect of being outshone by a hot new property, so his sole goal for the weekend has to be beating his young teammate.

Robert Kubica looked stunning at times over the Hungary weekend - but whilst his over aggressive race yielded a handful of passes, it also saw him spin twice and take off his front wing. Clearly quick and talented, he needs taming (at least in wet conditions) if he is to realise his potential, but in the meanwhile he should certainly be fun to watch.

Objectives: Get both cars into the points again.

Midland Toyota

Things looked up for Midland in qualifying, with Monteiro again making it in to Q2, but the wet weather pace was a disaster - the team struggled to get anywhere until the track dried out, which was a shame as this was probably the best chance they will have all year.

With the recent upgrades to the package, the car is a quicker than it has been, as demonstrated in qualifying, but still has little opportunity to do more than beat the Super Aguri package over a race distance. For the coming weekend it will be important to show they are still capable of doing that - and with more revisions to the aerodynamic package, perhaps continue closing in on the midfield.

Drivers: Christijan Albers must be getting sick of having engines give up on him, though it makes little difference to his qualifying position. A better showing on Saturday would help him progress in the race, so that has to be his target this weekend.

Christijan Albers & Tiago Monteiro © XPB/LAT

Tiago Monteiro has been showing his teammate the way in qualifying recently, with solid if uninspiring drives when his car will go the distance: another solid weekend would help to keep the team on track.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish - ahead of Super Aguri.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

There was little that either driver could do in qualifying for the Hungarian Grand Prix, so it looked like the team faced a long race ahead from the back of the grid; in the event, the rain mixed things up nicely, but also proved costly. Speed's early change to slicks undid the good work of climbing to tenth as he spun his way out of contention, whilst Liuzzi's eye catching tangle with Raikkonen eliminated him from the race in no uncertain terms.

The prospects in Turkey are little different; the slightly improved rev limit on the engine will at least start to come into play, but this is still an underpowered team, so they will struggle to stay ahead of Super Aguri and Midland in qualifying. That said, they have the capacity to close up on Red Bull on race day.

Drivers: Vitantonio Liuzzi and Scott Speed are both capable of putting together good race weekends, which keeps them working hard: both drivers have exchanged honours at different times of the year, so they are keen to fight at least each other. Prospects in Turkey will depend on getting an above average performances out of the whole team - particularly the drivers.

Objectives: Put together a solid race weekend, capitalise on any mistakes to move up the grid.

Super Aguri Honda

The revised chassis that Super Aguri took to Hungary looked capable of beating the Midland team, until a failing clutch cut the engine and cost Sato time. As the team continue to get used to setting up the new chassis, they should improve further - possibly lifting them off the back of the grid. Another aero update due this weekend should do little harm.

Drivers: Takuma Sato will be looking for a better outing in Turkey: the circuit should suit him, and provided he continues to show the maturity he has been illustrating all year to keep it on the track, he could have the beating of the Midlands. Sakon Yamamoto has to be looking at getting race laps under his belt to help offset his inexperience - little is expected from him yet, though Franck Montagny will be pleased to run again on Friday now that the team has a third SA06 chassis available.

Objectives: Beat anyone - and get the cars to the finish.