The 2006 Italian GP Preview

Analysis

The circus heads to Autodromo Nazionale Monza for the Italian Grand Prix, home of the tifosi, who are all hoping to see Ferrari's Michael Schumacher close his ten-point deficit in the world championship to Fernando Alonso.

There is something to be said for keeping variety in the Formula One calendar, and the Italian Grand Prix certainly does that: long straights and fast corners, combined with sizeable kerbs leave this is the last remaining true, low downforce circuit, one that requires aggressive driving, break-neck cornering speeds and significant challenge to the teams, yet still offers overtaking opportunities.

Powerful engines are rewarded, particularly peak power though traction is also important, whilst braking is critical: this is a high wear circuit, so misjudging the cooling requirements will result in long brake pedals - and probably some unexpected retirements right at the end of the race.

The race has a tendency to be slightly processional, as the teams usually test here before the weekend: however, maintaining speed requires aggressive driving, which in turn promotes mistakes - leading to overtaking opportunities, particularly as the low drag set-ups offer closer running through the fast corners.

Should there be mixed weather through the weekend, then there is potential for a very interesting grid: cars with set-ups and fuel loads compromised for the wet will be disadvantaged.

This is Ferrari's backyard and they are usually lifted by the partisan crowd: given some excellent running in the last test, they are expected to have a strong outing and should be the benchmark for the others.

Flashback 2005

Qualifying saw Kimi Raikkonen put in a storming time that should have seen him start from pole, but an engine change meant that he started eleventh: instead, Montoya put together a solid lap that put him comfortably ahead of the remaining players, and at the front for the race. Alonso and Button filled the second row, followed by Sato and Trulli. The Ferrari's of Schumacher and Barrichello were on the fourth row.

On race day, Montoya eased in to the lead, followed by Alonso and Button; Trulli slipped past Sato whilst Barrichello moved in front of Schumacher in to the first corner. Villeneuve jumped to tenth, whilst Coulthard damaged his front wing in turn two, clipping Fisichella... causing Webber in turn to run in to the Scot and lose his front wing.

Sato restored fourth place by aggressively passing Trulli through Parabolica - he was then passed by both Ferrari's on the second lap, blaming lack of straight line speed for the mishap - though he repassed Schumacher on lap four.

Raikkonen struggled to make up places, running eleventh for a while until Villeneuve pitted on lap fourteen; the Ferraris stopped around the same time, followed by Sato a couple of laps later. Button stopped, then Sato returned to the pits - casualty of a problem with the fuelling rig that impacted both drivers. Alonso then made a long stop, returning right ahead of Raikkonen, where he proceeded to keep his car wide, further impeding the McLaren driver's progress - though difficulty warming up the tyres made that interesting. Raikkonen attacked the Renault, first cutting a chicane and allowing Alonso back, then took a tow and passed anyway.

Raikkonen's late 25th lap stop brought him out in fourth place - committing him to a single stop strategy and explaining his slow early progress. Unfortunately, he was then forced to pit a couple of laps later for a replacement left rear tyre, putting him back down in twelfth place.

After the next round of stops, Barrichello came back in with a deflating left rear tyre; Raikkonen discovered himself back in fourth after these, before spinning at the second chicane and yielding the position to Trulli - whom it repassed shortly after.

With four laps remaining, Montoya started suffering the tyre delamination that had required a change for Raikkonen, leaving the team concerned that he would make the finish: with only a ten second lead over Alonso, pitting would certainly have cost the lead. In the end, however, he was able to cruise home to his second win of the year.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes (M)  1h14:28.659
 2.  Alonso        Renault          (M)  +     2.479
 3.  Fisichella    Renault          (M)  +    17.975
 4.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  +    22.775
 5.  Trulli        Toyota           (M)  +    33.786
 6.  R.Schumacher  Toyota           (M)  +    43.925
 7.  Pizzonia      Williams-BMW     (M)  +    44.643
 8.  Button        BAR-Honda        (M)  +  1:03.635

Fastest lap: de la Rosa, 1:24.504

Weather

The prospect is for a sunny race day, probable showers on Saturday and intermittent thunderstorms on Friday: this is expected to keep the track green until the race and potentially upset qualifying.

Tyres

The latest test saw Bridgestone looking very strong on Ferrari, with Michelin perhaps missing a piece of the puzzle after half the circuit was resurfaced: the French manufacturer was struggling with graining. For any wet weather, the advantage seems to be with Michelin, however, so the teams must be hoping for a wet qualifying, as that would allow them to make their choice of racing tyre without regard to this session.

Strategy

Although this has traditionally been a single stop race, the fast circuit typically closes the teams up in outright performance, so the cost of carrying a full tank in qualifying will be fairly tough. Two stopping was optimum for the front runners last season and likely to be again this, at least for the top ten. Further back, a single stop is the best chance of making up places overall, provided the team are not struggling with graining or tyre wear.

Conclusions

The new track surface throws a potential spanner in the works of the Michelin runners, whose tyres seem to be potentially compromised and more prone to graining: clearly a bonus for Ferrari. On the other hand, a wet qualifying session would throw the event wide open as the Michelin wets appear to be better than the Japanese counterparts, so the front of the grid would be stacked with Michelin runners, who could then choose race tyres without worrying about qualifying performance: advantage Renault.

But Ferrari are clearly favourites here, and expected to perform strongly. Renault could see stiff competition from Kimi Raikkonen's McLaren, and Honda will be snapping at their heels if they are making mistakes, so there is the potential for Alonso to give up a considerable part of his ten-point championship lead this weekend.

A lap of Monza with Pedro de la Rosa

Starting a lap of Monza, you power up through the gears along the wide Rettifilio Tribune straight reaching the top speed of all the circuits on the calendar, 360km/h in sixth gear. The right-left Rettifilio Chicane is located at the end of the straight and sees your speed drop as you brake dramatically to 124km/h in second.

As you exit, you immediately reach the Curva Grande. This long, bumpy right-hander is taken flat out and your speed increases to some 280km/h in fourth before arriving to the Variante dello Roggia. You brake from some 345km/h in sixth to 100km/h to negotiate the left-right chicane, which has a tricky entry as it is very bumpy and slippery.

Another short straight follows and takes you to the double apex right hander of Curva di Lesmos. You enter the first turn at 164km/h in third.

A quick burst of acceleration sees your speed increase up to 266km/h before you then brake for the second apex, which is negotiated at 158km/h also in third. It is important to maintain a good speed through Lesmos, as it takes you onto a long straight, which has a slight left curve. You reach 342km/h in sixth as you blast towards the Curva del Vialone.

Another hard braking zone takes your speed down to 148km/h in second to negotiate the left hander, the entry of the famous Ascari chicane, which is immediately followed by a right-hander leading into the next left hand corner. This is quite an exciting section of corners, which then flicks you onto the back straight, achieving speeds of 347km/h in sixth gear as you approach the famous Parabolica.

The tight entrance to this long sweeping right hander is taken at some 162km/h and as the curve opens out your speed increases and you are swung back onto the start-finish straight to begin another lap.

Team by Team

Giancarlo Fisichella and Fernando Alonso © XPB/LAT

Renault

At a circuit where Ferrari were clearly stronger, Alonso beat Schumacher to second place whilst Fisichella recovered from a first corner spin for sixth: a useful extension to the drivers' championship lead.

Italy should present some different problems. The mass damping system was a useful aspect to kerb handling, so it will be missed more here than in other circuits, though the team should have revised their suspension effectively to work without it. The overall cost to laptime could see a McLaren or Honda running ahead in Monza, potentially doing a lot of damage to the championship lead.

On the positive side, the team have a very well balanced chassis and a solid development programme. In low downforce trim they are certainly competitive, whilst Alonso has the demonstrated ability to capitalise on any opportunity to score.

Drivers: Giancarlo Fisichella is playing a supporting role in the Renault cast, though his performances have been mixed all year. A strong outing in Italy could do much to ease the pressure on Alonso, and help with the constructors' championship besides.

Fernando Alonso's hold on the drivers' championship is looking slender as the team fight off a concerted Ferrari challenge: yet the Spaniard continues to be a threat every time he races. Given a well timed safety car incident, or some rain at a critical moment, and he stands every chance to benefit and walk away with a win.

Objectives: Fighting for the podium - potentially a win.

McLaren Mercedes

It was another tale of disappointment from McLaren in Turkey: difficult qualifying followed by trouble for Raikkonen in the race prevented him from finishing, though de la Rosa made the most of a single stop strategy to salvage some points.

Last year, McLaren were very strong at Monza, with Montoya coasting to a win as Raikkonen recovered from an engine change: this year, the season has not seen performances to match, though the car is clearly improving.

It is unlikely that the team will be winning this race, but they are now showing a similar performance to Renault on occasion, so there is some potential for sneaking on to the podium: Raikkonen can certainly never be discounted.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen continues to demonstrate bad luck at every opportunity, but if he gets a change of fortune, then this is a chance for the Finn to score good points for the team. His high speed accident in Turkey is unlikely to impact his speed.

Pedro de la Rosa has kept himself out of trouble and driven fast - resulting in good finishes. The Spaniard is quick and capable, a reliable teammate, and probably headed for more points from this outing.

Objectives: Get both cars in to the points - challenge for a podium spot.

Felipe Massa © XPB/LAT

Ferrari

After a dominant performance by Massa in Turkey, resulting in his first win, the team look to be in fine shape to compete for the championships. Both drivers are on form, and the package is delivering on most circuits.

There is little reason to see any change in their home event at Monza: Ferrari were able to get some very fast laps there in the last test, apparently having little trouble getting set up with the revised surface. Add the support of the tifosi shouting them on, on top of their determined development and this is another weekend when they turn up as clear favourites.

In the interests of the championship, Massa will be playing the team game - expect him to move over if Schumacher is running behind, and to be playing a rear gunner role of the competition starts to get too close.

Drivers: Felipe Massa is coming off his first race win and can be expected to be very quick again this weekend: he should be in a position to support his teammate very effectively in the search for a Ferrari one-two.

Although there are many things that can go amiss, Michael Schumacher is favoured to win this weekend; his motivation is high and even speculation over the pending announcement of his future should be little distraction.

Objectives: Take the top two places on the podium.

Toyota

Toyota salvaged a couple of points in Turkey from a difficult race weekend where their drivers nearly took each other out: they will be looking forward to a more competitive time in Italy.

So far this season, when downforce levels have dropped or circuits have been smooth, Toyota have moved forwards - add a probable Bridgestone advantage, and they have to be anticipating a relatively strong weekend. That said, getting on to the podium would be something of an achievement, as Ferrari and Renault still appear to have some advantage.

Drivers: Ralf Schumacher was on the receiving end of an engine change in Turkey, so he will be hoping the replacement is a more reliable unit. Last year, he worked a single stop strategy smoothly to finish in the points: a repeat this year is entirely possible.

Jarno Trulli usually runs well at Monza, and has the potential to qualify well up the grid if he can get the car set up to his liking; retaining the places during the race will be a bigger challenge, but a points finish should be on the cards.

Objectives: Get both cars into the points.

Mark Webber © XPB/LAT

Williams Cosworth

Williams' dismal season did not improve on their last outing, as they struggled on race day, failing to score points despite escaping the first corner confusion to run in fifth and sixth: a conspiracy of poor circumstance and reliability.

Perhaps this weekend could be a different story, if the team can gain another lucky break at the start: even with Bridgestone looking set to offer some advantage, Williams are still likely to struggle.

On the positive side, this circuit rewards power, and Cosworth are pulling out the stops to ensure their unit will deliver for the whole race: it might offer the team a boost with this incarnation that sees them into the points.

Drivers: Despite announcing his departure for Red Bull, Mark Webber has fought on and has the potential to put in stunning qualifying sessions - though keeping the positions through the race here is challenging.

Nico Rosberg's star has been on the wane as Robert Kubica's has risen in BMW, though that is perhaps a little unfair on the Williams rookie, who is arguably driving the poorer car at this point, and against a demon qualifier; this circuit is another that rewards experience, so qualifying or racing ahead of his teammate would be a good result.

Objectives: Score a point.

Honda

Fourth place was a good result from a decent outing in Turkey, capitalising on a solid qualifying session with fourth and a second car in the points, though it was a bit of a one man show.

Heading to Italy, the team are coming off the back of a good test there, so they are hoping to build on that to finish well in the points again: both drivers have done well here in the past, with Barrichello winning twice, so this weekend has potential.

Of course, results require reliability, and this is perhaps the toughest circuit on engines - so Honda are now caught in a dilemma between running their 2007 specification engine early, with the performance benefits and risks that entails, or their older, presumably more reliable engine.

Drivers: Rubens Barrichello struggled to dial the car in at the last outing, but his race pace was encouraging: heading to a circuit where he has been strong with Ferrari should mean he is capable of a strong weekend, so he will be looking to get back on a par with his teammate - particularly in qualifying.

Jenson Button looked good last weekend, and whilst he says that nothing has changed since winning, there is little doubt that the rest of the team have been lifted, even if his driving remains the same.

Objectives: Both cars in the top ten in qualifying, and scoring from the race.

David Coulthard © XPB/LAT

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

Another indifferent weekend in Turkey illustrated the difficulty of staying in touch with the front runners, even when there is a decent budget available. Perhaps the design team is distracted by work on next year's car, but they are certainly losing ground in the midfield.

Targeting points from the weekend would be very aggressive, yet it must still be a goal. With the low drag package, the car's mechanical characteristics and engine power will be more obvious, factors that yielded an eighth place in Canada. Although the midfield as a whole are appearing to move forward faster, most of the advances seem to be from the aerodynamics, which are most changed here.

Should the team manage a good qualifying session, then perhaps another point is on the cards.

Drivers: David Coulthard usually puts together the better race weekend of the duo, and should be able to leverage his experience to again maximise the potential of the package on race day - though even in the new format, qualifying continues to be a weakness.

Christian Klien, on the other hand, has the potential to scrape in the Q3 if he gets everything right, but tends to lose ground over the full race distance - though perhaps there is a chance that with the pressure to save his seat lifted, his consistency will improve.

Objectives: Qualify well, then score a point.

BMW Sauber

With another blazingly quick third driver in their line-up, BMW-Sauber again had eyes on them for the weekend. In the event, both drivers made it to the top ten in qualifying, but a disappointing race left things on a down-note.

The Italian Grand Prix probably offers a realistic chance of scoring another point, provided the team can avoid graining tyres. Retaining a decent qualifying pace when the aero devices come off will be tough, but it is also an opportunity to take more points: with an aggressive qualifying and race, the team can capitalise on any mishaps from the leading outfits.

Drivers: Robert Kubica had a solid weekend in Turkey, qualifying eighth before slipping down to twelfth in the race after suffering graining tyres. As his experience increases, so should his consistency over the full distance - which could be important in Italy. This weekend will require aggressive work on the kerbs, maintained with pinpoint precision for the whole race; any misstep will be punished.

Nick Heidfeld has his work cut out to show that he is still faster than his novice teammate, whose youth and speed have put the spotlight right on the team: being quick again this weekend could offer a point, too, so a strong race is required.

Third driver Sebastian Vettel will again be under the microscope, as the media will be looking to see if he is as quick as his results implied in Turkey.

Objectives: Get both cars into the top ten in qualifying, then score in the race.

Christijan Albers © XPB/LAT

Midland Toyota

This team are finally showing some potential, as they had their most competitive performance of the year in Turkey: Albers ran ninth for a while, before spinning out.

With their continuous evolutions to the car, the team have done more than keep ahead of Super Aguri, closing the gap to the front runners: they are getting to the point where they can consider themselves a genuine midfield team.

Quite what Monza has to offer is going to be interesting: the loss of downforce could see the team losing out on some of their aero gains, though the Toyota engine has some power that, perhaps, might let them stretch their legs further.

Drivers: Christijan Albers had a good weekend in Turkey and has to be hoping for more to come - a strong start and solid race demonstrated his potential with this chassis, though keeping it going to the finish is important.

Tiago Monteiro, when he gets past the first corner and is not then let down by the car, generally puts together a straightforward race to the finish; he is pretty quick, though less aggressive than his teammate, which could be a little slower over the kerbs here.

Objectives: Target Q2 in qualifying and two cars to the finish.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

Following their normal positive practice sessions in Turkey, the team saw a difficult qualifying followed by poor race results - though Liuzzi jumped up to an impressive eighth place at the start. The team are still not quick enough to run with the midfield regularly at the 'normal' European circuits.

Monza, however, is not normal: the low downforce set-up is reminiscent of Canada, where the team were surprisingly competitive, and they looked pretty decent in the recent test. Whilst the others have undoubtedly progressed further, they have to be looking to make it at least into the second qualifying segment before running with the midfield for the race.

Drivers: Scott Speed and Antonio Liuzzi have little to choose between them at the moment, though they drive each other pretty hard. The limited driver experience that on occasion has left them chasing the setup should be mitigated by the Monza test - they should be well matched against each other.

Objectives: Make it to at least Q2 and run with the midfield.

Super Aguri Honda

It was a normal outing for Super Aguri in Turkey - the new car has helped to close the gap to the front, but they are still clear backmarkers. Little different can be expected in Italy - though the low downforce settings should be an interesting leveller.

Drivers: Takuma Sato struggled with his chassis in Turkey qualifying, seeing his teammate ahead on the grid, before suffering damage in the first corner, then spending the remainder of the race essentially testing the new chassis. Considering his teammate actually looked quite quick, he'll be looking forward to this weekend.

Sakon Yamamoto is quick but still inexperienced at this level; his performance in Turkey was commendable, and more valuable experience, but it will be interesting to see how he handles low downforce and big kerbs.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish - beat a Midland.