The 2006 Chinese GP Preview

Analysis

Following Schumacher's win and announcement of his forthcoming retirement, the Formula One circus is headed to the Shanghai circuit in China, where business as usual will be resumed - with Renault and Ferrari fighting for the championships.

Last season, the Chinese Grand Prix was the final event of the year, with Alonso already crowned drivers' champion and Renault looking to secure the constructors' championship over McLaren.

Although this circuit is relatively convoluted, the long back straight and wide track means that it is not quite another Monaco or Hungaroring: good downforce is well rewarded, too much drag leaves cars vulnerable to be passed on the back straight. Accordingly, good power permits more wing. Similarly, the tight corners reward good mechanical grip through the turns whilst drivability is important to get away afterwards.

Balance is particularly important into turn one, where cars are slowing through the corner from sixth to second gear - and does no harm to keep the cars on the black stuff through the remainder of the lap either.

Overtaking is possible, though difficult, so qualifying remains important but not to the detriment of implementing a solid strategy.

Flashback 2005

In 2005, Alonso and Fisichella surprised onlookers by locking out the front row. Raikkonen was third in the favoured McLaren, admitting an imperfect lap, ahead of Button. Montoya's fifth place belied running second in the qualifying session, with Schumacher alongside. Coulthard, Barrichello, Ralf Schumacher and Webber rounded out the top ten.

The race started badly for Schumacher and Albers, who collided en route to the line, leaving both to start in the spare car from the pitlane - alongside Karthikeyan, who came in after the parade lap for a last minute check-up.

Off the start line, Montoya passed Button for fourth as Sato rocketed from seventeenth to twelfth - via a jump start that resulted in a drive through penalty. Alonso made up a second a lap as Fisichella held up the McLaren duo: with the Constructor's Championship still on the line, the team tactics made sense.

The first round of stops began with Coulthard and Trulli on lap 17, but on the next lap, Montoya suffered damage from drain cover coming adrift, damaging a front tyre and requiring a stop to assess the impact; this resulted in a safety car, eliminating Alonso's lead. All the cars stopped, with Montoya coming back in to refuel - except Schumacher, though he span out behind the safety car. Montoya, Coulthard and Button all suffered from the safety car failing to wave past non-leading cars...

Montoya soon retired with an engine failure, before the safety car returned after Karthikeyan ran wide on lap 30, shredding his car on the tyre barrier before it finished in the middle of the track: the leaders pitted immediately, with Raikkonen slipping past Fisichella, who was stacked behind Alonso.

After the restart, Webber forced Barrichello in to a mistake as the Ferrari driver lost grip, then Coulthard passed a lap later. He stopped a few laps later to replace a flat spotted tyre. Klien - who had not stopped during the second safety car period - came in from third on lap 45, releasing Raikkonen, who tried to close his nine second gap to Alonso, but it was too late.

Fisichella lost out after a penalty for obstructing in the pit-lane as he attempted to minimise the impact of being stacked behind Alonso.

It proved a close run thing though: Alonso's engine blew on his in-lap after the race!

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Alonso        Renault          (M)  1h39:53.618
 2.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  +     4.015
 3.  R.Schumacher  Toyota           (M)  +    25.376
 4.  Fisichella    Renault          (M)  +    26.114
 5.  Klien         Red Bull-Cosworth(M)  +    31.839
 6.  Massa         Sauber-Petronas  (M)  +    36.400
 7.  Webber        Williams-BMW     (M)  +    36.842
 8.  Button        BAR-Honda        (M)  +    41.249

Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:33.242

Weather

With thunderstorms a likelihood on Saturday, getting the cars set up properly on Friday is going to be important. Scattered showers are due on Sunday, so there is a reasonable chance of a wet race.

Tyres

In the wet there is probably still a clear Michelin advantage, but in the dry things should be closer - Michelin has made more steps forward, though perhaps some Bridgestone advantage remains for Ferrari's package in particular. High wear rates will stop the manufacturers from bringing their softest tyres, but with mechanical grip well rewarded, expect some teams to gamble on marginal option tyres.

Strategy

Teams will need to predict whether the race is going to be wet or dry: a wet race (or uncertainty over when showers might arrive) will require full tanks at the start, so everyone is likely to be loaded for a single stop, though the top ten will probably be looking at two. Overall, whilst three stops offer the optimum theoretical time, passing is arguably too difficult here for it to be practical: expect two stops in the dry, unless the front runners gamble.

Conclusions

Though less severe than Monaco or the Hungaroring, this circuit rewards the same packages - though the longer straights and wider corners mean that overtaking is possible, if difficult, so keeping slow cars behind is not as simple. Accordingly, you would expect the usual suspects to be fighting at the front: Renault and McLaren have a solid shot, whilst Ferrari will arrive as favourites.

That said, this circuit has not been kind to Schumacher in recent years, and with pressure from he could well have another difficult outing - this is an opportunity to show his mettle. Likewise, Honda have been sitting in the shadows, and BMW have every chance of producing a surprising result, if they are given any chances.

A lap of Shanghai with Kimi Raikkonen

The lap starts on the long pit straight, we power along the 600 metre section reaching speeds of 305km/h in sixth gear as we pass underneath the impressive grandstand walkway. As we reach the first corner we are down to fifth gear travelling at 234km/h, here we should pull 3.4G. This corner is very long as it sweeps round to the right, it is immediately followed by the right then left of turns two and three. Our speeds drop quite low through here to 107km/h as it is quite tight and we need to be in second gear.

As we exit turn three, we will have to push on the throttle to build up speed as we pass through the slight kinks of turns four and five that gently flick the track first left then right on the run down to turn six. We hit about 291km/h along here reaching sixth gear before braking hard for the hairpin of six, which will see us drop down into second gear and 102km/h.

Coming out of the hairpin there is a short straight that leads to a long, wide, sweeping S of seven and eight, with the track first curving to the left and then to the right. This is a chance to get the speed back up again and we reach 265km/h over turn seven and only lifting slightly for the apex of eight.

The two almost 90-degree bends of nine and ten follow which see us drop down to second gear and 137km/h before coming onto the short straight which leads to the tight left of eleven. We can reach speeds of 284km/h coming into turn 11 but drop down to second gear and 91km/h for the turn.

This then takes you onto another long sweeping right hander, similar to the complex at the end of the pit straight. This double-apex bend swings us back round on ourselves onto a straight that runs parallel to the one we were just on. The corner is the widest section of the track and it is fairly long so we are able to increase our speed to 249km/h as we drive through it and are back in fifth gear as we exit onto the back straight. This corner is particularly important for a quick lap time, as it swings round onto the longest straight, which is just over one kilometre.

We need to ensure we have the maximum speed possible as we exit the corner so that we have the momentum to power along the back straight at speeds nearing 326km/h in sixth. A hard braking zone at the end of the straight for the two rights of fourteen and fifteen as we descend to second gear and 88km/h for these corners. Again on the power for a short straight that takes you to the final corner, a 90-degree left-hander taken at 181km/h in third gear returning you to the pit straight.

Team by Team

Renault

It was a disappointing weekend in Italy, where the car was off front runner pace, the stewards penalised Alonso in qualifying, then an engine failure took them off the podium.

Since then, testing has been productive, though the team were evaluating Piquet in addition to working on tyre selection and parts for the remaining races. Whilst there may be some questions over who has the overall edge in the final events, Renault still appear to have sufficient pace to challenge at the front.

Pat Symonds, Giancarlo Fisichella, Fernando Alonso © LAT

This is going to be important as they return to China - where Alonso won comfortably last year, as the team sealed the constructor's championship. There, the competition came from McLaren, who again are expected to be strong, though defeating Ferrari will be the main consideration: this is key to both championships.

If Michelin are competitive - or it rains - then beating Ferrari should be a simple case of not making mistakes, but a strong strategy and damage limitation will be the order of the day unless this is the case.

Drivers: Fernando Alonso continues to dominate his teammate and promises to be quick on a return to the circuit he dominated last year; this could be a chance to improve his standing in the championship, provided his package is on a par with Ferrari.

Giancarlo Fisichella is going to need to be the ideal teammate again this weekend if the team are to maximise their points haul: following Alonso home in a one-two would be perfect. Failing that, beating the Ferrari's is his target.

Objectives: Beat Ferrari.

McLaren Mercedes

McLaren must be pleased with their Italian outing, where they finished a competitive second on merit, after Raikkonen led in the early stages, then chased Schumacher home. This was the sort of performance they had been promising was available from the package, and finally delivered.

It bodes well for the remaining races; if they can maintain the momentum then there is every chance of fighting for the top spot on the podium at all three events. With Ferrari and Renault working to cover each other, gambling on strategy might well offer a chance to beat their rivals, even if their outright pace might not be the best over the whole distance.

There is little doubt that since Montoya left the team seem to be concentrating their resources in a more focused fashion, which perhaps is why Raikkonen is now looking as likely to get on the podium as any this weekend.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen continues to demonstrate phenomenal pace and form whenever the package lets him, and is clearly looking to deliver a win for McLaren before he heads over to Ferrari.

Pedro de la Rosa has been solid as the second driver, if unspectacular. The promotion from testing was not a mistake, as he is more reliable than his car: if it is running, he is very capable of finishing in the points, even if he doesn't have the flair of his teammate.

Objectives: Podium finish - but shooting for a win.

Ferrari

With a near perfect result from Italy, Ferrari are poised to take both championships away from their rivals - but as they announced, they are doing so under the cloud (or spur) of their star driver retiring: if they don't get the job done this year, he will probably not have another opportunity to deliver.

So perhaps it is as well that they have been working hard in testing, looking for the ideal tyre and aerodynamic evolutions on the car for the up and coming races. Historically, China promises to suit the Renault package well, so this is likely to be a weekend of damage limitation whilst the focus stays on performing in Japan, Bridgestone's home track and one where Schumacher has often excelled.

With the sights sets on Renault, race day tactics could be influenced to establishing an advantage over this team to the exclusion of all others, perhaps admitting the likes of Raikkonen to get away and win.

Drivers: Michael Schumacher should face some interesting pressures, now he has announced his retirement; the Chinese circuit has not rewarded him particularly well in the past, so the additional pressure may not help him get the most out of his package.

Felipe Massa, on the other hand, has no such pressure: this might be one of the few times when he could have an advantage over his team leader, and whilst - inevitably - their positions would be reversed if he was in a position to lead Schumacher over the finish line, this might be a chance to win.

Objectives: Beat Renault, particularly Alonso - by winning the race if possible.

Jarno Trulli (Toyota TF106B) 2006 Italian Grand Prix © LAT

Toyota

It was a tough outing for Toyota in Italy, with neither driver showing anything from qualifying. Race day saw little more, though a strong fight by Trulli on a huge fuel load at least rescued a couple of points from the outing.

More is going to be required from the last races if the team are to take fifth overall from BMW Sauber: they are not going to catch Honda for fourth now. The last test produced little change in performance, perhaps indicating that the Bridgestone tyres they rely on are not so suitable for the car - or perhaps a sign of running configurations more suited to China than Silverstone.

That said, getting in front of the BMW-Sauber drivers has to be the goal from the remaining races - though a strong performance in front of the home crowd in Japan is probably the focus, so don't expect too much from China.

Drivers: Jarno Trulli has not been able to show his qualifying talent much of late, as the car seems to be a little off the pace of the mostly Michelin-shod midfield: a good run on Saturday may permit him to hold on and score points on Sunday.

Ralf Schumacher is certainly capable of putting on an excellent show, as he did last season, but it is difficult to predict when he will be on form, and when he will have an ambivalent showing. His potential means he cannot be ruled out from scoring a point: if he runs as well he did in 2005 then he will do so again.

Objectives: Beat BMW.

Williams Cosworth

There was little to write home about after the Italian Grand Prix - with an out of the points finish and a retirement due to a drive shaft failing: it exemplified the season Williams have been struggling with, one of the worst in their history.

China offers little scope for change; the team are struggling to get on terms with their normal peers, instead producing mediocre performances and carrying home points to match. When the car is quick in qualifying, it rarely maintains pace in the race, whilst decent race performance usually comes at the cost of positions on Saturday.

A good weekend would be coming away with a point and both cars reaching the finish: they are clearly concentrating on next season, which only makes sense. It is no accident that the team have been testing Toyota engines in their chassis, rather than working flat out on maximising the results from this car.

That said, they do have revised aerodynamics for the next couple of races, so perhaps a small step forward and some luck will bring home a point.

Drivers: If Mark Webber can put together another of his stellar qualifying performances, then there is a chance he will pick up a point from the race - but he will need to put on one of his best drives to do so.

Nico Rosberg has struggled with the car since his opening race: his experience is not lending itself to driving around its problems with pace to match his teammate. On the other hand, he is gaining in experience each weekend and retains potential, something that the team will need in no uncertain terms next season, as they work on returning to competitive form.

Objectives: Score a point.

Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello © LAT

Honda

Despite no running on Friday in Italy - a result of testing a new engine - the team finished with both cars in the points, comfortably protecting their place in the championship. There will be much work to do if they want similar results from the remaining races.

The last test went well, illustrating plenty of basic speed is available from the chassis, but carrying over qualifying pace into and through the race is the challenge. This circuit suits the package, so there ought to be a good starting point, but McLaren are likely to be challenging to beat, let alone Renault and Ferrari.

Drivers: Jenson Button has been putting on some solid performances, with some flashes of brilliance - another great outing should see him back on the podium in China, though it will be difficult to deliver.

Rubens Barrichello has the ability to match his teammate - and this should be one of his stronger circuits; certainly he has used to have a better weekend here than Schumacher when he raced for Ferrari.

Objectives: Qualify in the top ten and target the podium.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

Another mediocre performance in Italy leaves the Red Bull outfit struggling to make an impression as the season draws to a close - ongoing politics over next seasons engines still ongoing, perhaps providing some distraction to developing this car, let alone next season's offering.

On the positive side, the trip to China offers a reasonable chance of rain, and with it a chance that the competition will be making mistakes and allowing Red Bull to score another point. Without that, they will struggle to compete with the midfield runners, so a top ten finish would be an excellent result.

Drivers: David Coulthard's experience ought to help him out-perform his teammate solidly, but the package is not even as competitive this year as it was last, so getting in to the points will require some real problems for the competition.

Christian Klien's time with Red Bull is over, so they are replacing him with third driver Robert Doornbos for the remainder of the season. Although his Friday performances have not exactly set the world alight, Doornbos is capable of putting together a decent race.

Objectives: Score a point.

BMW Sauber

An excellent weekend in Italy underlines the progress BMW-Sauber have made this season: coming away with a well deserved podium after a decent all round performance was very welcome, leaving them three points ahead of Toyota in the championship and defending fifth overall.

China represents a different challenge; rather than power and efficient aerodynamics, this weekend will reward balance, solid mechanical grip and effective traction - rather like Austria and Monaco. BMW finished in the points on both those occasions, and ahead of Toyota, so they have to be optimistic about the weekend ahead.

The three-week break has seen BMW looking pretty handy in testing, as they set about putting together their final three races.

Drivers: Robert Kubica's podium finish in Italy came after a robust drive under pressure, illustrating the youngster has plenty of potential: another strong outing this weekend can only help his star to rise higher, whilst his inexperience provides a ready excuse if things go wrong.

Nick Heidfeld was less lucky than his inexperienced teammate in Italy, but needs to re-assert his superiority if he is to keep the youngster in check; whilst the world is watching his teammates, he is capable of quietly out-performing them both.

Objectives: Beat Toyota.

Alexandre Premat tests the repainted Spyker-MF1 at Silverstone © LAT

Spyker-Midland Toyota

A miserable weekend in Italy belies the promising news that Spyker has bought the outfit and will be bringing Mike Gascoyne on for the next season - an infusion of cash and know-how that can do little harm as the team struggles to close the performance gap to the front.

Little new can be expected from the next outing, except a change in livery to show off the new Spyker ownership: the team has nothing much to offer in terms of performance, so putting on a decent show has to be the order of the day: getting both cars to the end of the race would maximise the TV exposure for the team and new ownership whilst it is still newsworthy.

Results will depend on rain, combined with considerable fortune whilst those around come adrift.

Drivers: Christijan Albers and Tiago Monteiro are largely well matched and there is little to choose between them; the former has a slight speed advantage, whilst the latter is more likely to bring the car home in one piece. Unless it rains, they should spend the weekend buffering the Super Aguri drivers from the midfield.

Objectives: Get both cars to the end - maximise TV time.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

As the season has worn on, the disadvantage of running year-old engines has told, so it was little surprise to see Toro Rosso struggle in Italy. Although the biggest handicap is their engine, their aero programme was not optimal for the one-off low drag requirements of Monza.

The team will be looking for retirements from their competition in order to make up places; they have a package that is competitive with the backmarkers, so beating Super Aguri and Midland is on the cards. Besides that, they will cause headaches if any other midfield runners have the misfortune to get stuck behind them: neither driver is easy to pass.

Drivers: Scott Speed and Vitantonio Liuzzi are well matched and can be expected to give each other a tough time over the weekend, even if they cannot find anyone else to compete with.

Objectives: Beat the backmarkers - and pick up any pieces left by the midfield runners.

Super Aguri Honda

There is little changed at Super Aguri since their last outing - though that was arguably their best of the season, as the SA06 car is closer to the others than ever before. That said, the performance has come with a price in reliability terms, as both cars suffered with hydraulic failures.

This time out, after a test at Silverstone, they should have at least improved the reliability, so aiming to qualify and race competitively with Midland is something they can look for in the dry - perhaps a little better if it rains.

Keeping both cars intact (whether or not they make the finish) will help considerably, as the Japanese GP is only a week away.

Drivers: Takuma Sato runs fairly well in China, though he seems to be unlucky there; this ought to be another chance to work on understanding and improving the car with a view to next season. Sakon Yamamoto on the other hand should be making the most of another opportunity to get to grips with the car; his inexperience provides Sato with little challenge so completing as many laps as possible is the order of the day.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish.