Shuffling the Deck

It was always believed that the North American leg of the 2006 Formula One season might provide a turning point in both championships. Yet few would have thought that Ferrari's success in the US GP at Indianapolis wouldn't be just a one-off, but rather the start of a streak. It hasn't resulted in just a turning point, it's shuffled the entire deck.

Prior to Indianapolis, the field had settled into the sort of predictability that marks most F1 seasons. Renault dominated, Ferrari got the occasional look in, McLaren were just fast enough to keep their rivals honest, and Williams, Toyota and Honda struggled down the field.

By the end of Sunday's German Grand Prix, it was apparent just how meaningless the previous form book had become. Ferrari were now dominant, Honda were back in the frame for potential podium finishes, McLaren and Williams had both managed to outstrip the Renaults on sheer race pace, and Toyota's Jarno Trulli might have followed suit if not for a blown engine that dropped him to the back of the grid.

It is the most thorough shake-up of the form book in recent memory, greater even than the re-emergence of Bridgestone following the FIA's penalty against Michelin in 2003. It is also a fortunate coincidence that events have conspired to throw both of this year's championships wide open again.

By Canada, Renault's Fernando Alonso had recorded the most successful first half of a championship campaign in history, dropping just six points in nine races. It seemed ludicrously far-fetched that any rival could even pose a respectable challenge to Alonso during the second half of the year. Yet, barely five weeks later, Ferrari's Michael Schumacher has not only made a fight of the WDC, he is arguably now the favourite to win it.

In Germany, all the talk centred around a three-word technical term that was virtually unheard of before, but which has now become the focus for the rest of the season - mass damping systems. So, is this 20 pound weight suspended by a spring in the nose section of the car a 'movable aerodynamic device' or not? The FIA thinks it is, the German stewards decided it wasn't. Either way, it became the scapegoat for Renault's failure in Germany.

As convenient as it may be as a neatly packaged rationale for Renault's sudden fall from dominance, the mass damping system is just one of a triangle of three inter-related aspects that will decide this year's championship. The other two, crucially, are the tyres that the mass damping system is designed to stabilise, and the driver who must accommodate both of these technical aspects in his driving style and race pace out on the track.

Of the three cornerstones, tyres stand out as the primary reason why Fernando Alonso is no longer the dominant force that he was earlier in the year. The results of the US GP didn't just confirm that Bridgestone had the measure of arch-rivals Michelin at Indianapolis. Instead, the Japanese manufacturer had developed a better tyre overall.

Indianapolis forms a clear watershed in the 2006 tyre war. During the first nine races of the year, Michelin-shod cars recorded 19 podium finishes to Bridgestone's eight. In the three races since Indianapolis, the position has been reversed - six Bridgestone podiums to Michelin's three. That is partly attributable to Ferrari's recent development work. But the other main Bridgestone runners, Toyota and Williams, have also experienced a surge in fortunes.

The Renault R26 © LAT

On the Michelin side of the paddock, the tyre issue isn't as clear-cut. Renault and BMW's form has declined, McLaren's has been stable, Honda have actually improved, with Jenson Button recording his best finish in months at Germany. That leaves the mass damping system as a potential contributor.

It's notable that McLaren and Honda have suddenly leapfrogged Renault since the banning of the damping system on 20 July, particularly as Renault prided themselves on their system while McLaren had effectively not yet used mass damping.

The next GP in Hungary will provide some measure of how much the damping system means to Renault's performance, as Flavio Briatore's team will refit the system pending the outcome of the FIA's appeal later. To muddy the waters, Michelin will also bring a new tyre compound to Hungary. However, it would be optimistic to predict that Renault will resume dominant form at Hungary.

At best, the system is reckoned to give Renault an edge of three-tenths of a second per lap. Fernando Alonso's pace problems go way beyond a mere three-tenths. During the first nine GP, Alonso recorded three fastest, three second-fastest and three third-fastest race laps. In the three GP since Indianapolis, he's been sixth, fifth and ninth fastest respectively, failing to record a lap within half a second of the flying Ferraris.

Three-tenths per lap is not going to bring Renault and Alonso back on par with the Ferraris, especially not considering that both Schumacher and Massa have been cruising during the latter portion of recent races. Three-tenths will not even allow Alonso to challenge Massa, and beating the Brazilian is the very minimum that Alonso must aim for if he is to hang on to his rapidly diminishing championship lead.

Alonso does have one thing in his favour - Michael Schumacher's less than stellar record during close championship finishes. Apart from his mistakes in 1994 and 1997, Schumacher also failed in the final few races against Mika Hakkinen in 1998. Schumacher did manage to prevail in a close 2003 championship although he looked far from convincing in doing so, often failing to match teammate Rubens Barrichello's pace down the stretch.

2000 is the only championship year in which Schumacher has excelled and dominated during a close final quarter, rattling off four straight wins to close out Ferrari's first WDC triumph since 1979. Schumacher's radio conversation with race engineer Chris Dyer on his victory lap in Germany was illustrative of the challenge.

"This championship's back in our hands now," enthused Dyer. "We win the last six races, we win the championship." Even in this era of extreme single-package dominance, and even with Michael Schumacher's vast experience and record for drawing the maximum points reward out of every opportunity, it will be tough for the German to go two races better than he did in 2000.

Renault teammates Giancarlo Fisichella and Fernando Alonso in the 2006 German Grand Prix at Hockenheim © LAT

Although, of course, it may not be necessary for Schumacher to take six straight wins, particularly not if Alonso continues to finish off the podium, as he did at Indianapolis and Hockenheim. Which leads to the most intriguing aspect of the speed triangle - the form of Alonso himself.

It is natural, whenever a driver suffers a string of below par results, to assign at least part of the blame to a slump in form. Prior to Sunday's GP, Honda's Jenson Button was adamant that his driving wasn't to blame for his miserable season, the car was simply unable to give him the results that he'd attained previously. He was vindicated by a solid fourth place finish.

Alonso faces the corollary. Even with Bridgestone's recent gains and the temporary loss of the mass damping system, Alonso will inevitably take some of the flak for his disappointing performances in the US and Germany. There is some justification for that, not least because teammate Fisichella (who has suffered the same technical setbacks) is matching if not beating Alonso on pace.

Alonso dropped only six points in the first nine races, and has dropped fourteen points in the three races since. Fisichella, surprisingly, has been much more consistent. In the eight races that he finished during the first half, Fisichella scored 37 points at an average of just more than 4.5 per finish. Since Indianapolis, he has scored 12 points in three races at an average of 4. It's a drop-off, but nothing like the plunge that Alonso's fortunes have taken.

Perhaps Fisichella is simply better at getting the most out of flawed equipment, perhaps Alonso's style just hit a magic groove in sync with the Michelin tyres and the mass damping system. If the latter proves to be true, then the rest of the season could well make or break Alonso's claim to Schumacher's crown as the best driver of his generation.

The first test of a great driver is to win the championship. The second (and more important) test is to win a championship under intense pressure from credible opposition. Alonso's maiden WDC title last year was impressive for its consistency, but he was rarely under pressure. The remaining six races of the 2006 season provide him with an entirely different and more credible challenge.

Alonso knows already that Schumacher's Ferrari will not break, and he must be working on the assumption that Schumacher won't fold under the pressure either. There is no more scope for 'damage limitation'. If Alonso wants this title, he will have to go out and take it: the opposition is not going to hand it to him.

Alonso and Renault are making all the right noises, claiming that Germany was a one-off and that Hungary will mark a return to form. We've been hearing that since Indianapolis and, with each passing race, the predictions have more of a white-knuckled edge to them.

The calendar couldn't have tossed up a better venue than Hungary for the next round. Hungaroring has been a roller-coaster circuit for Alonso. He was sublime there in 2003, taking his maiden F1 victory and lapping Michael Schumacher in the process. A year later, he was the 'best of the rest', taking the final step of the podium behind the dominant Ferraris. Last year, Hungary was easily his worst race of the season, finishing 11th and surrendering ten points to championship chaser Kimi Raikkonen.

Which Alonso will pitch up at Hungary next weekend, the 2003 maestro or the inexplicably uncompetitive 2005 midfielder? Whichever it is, Hungary is likely to prove another turning point in the 2006 championship saga.