MPH: Mark Hughes on...

Take a look at the testing analysis at the front of the February 7th Autosport magazine issue and it seems like we're in store for another Ferrari versus McLaren season.

Unless some giant strides are made between now and Melbourne by Williams, Renault and BMW, the red cars and the silver cars are going to be beginning the year more than 0.5sec per lap clear of the field. History tells us that in modern Formula 1 such chunks of time are almost never clawed back.

There is something fundamental in the potential of each of these cars and no amount of development is going to transcend that. The chasers will probably get closer through the season, but they will almost certainly remain chasers.

So the dynamics between the team-mates in the four fast cars will quite possibly be critical in determining the outcome of the championship.

Fernando Alonso had a very good point last year when he insisted the most effective way to win world titles is to centre the campaign around one driver and use the other as support. He was naive in thinking McLaren would ever agree with him, but he was right about it being the most effective way.

Given that McLaren were never going to favour one guy over another, his only hope was that he would become de facto number one on performance alone. But, as we all now know, Lewis Hamilton was simply too good for that to be possible.

Much has been made of the point that had McLaren done as Alonso suggested and got fully behind him, he would have won the title. That is certainly true; he lost the title by two points, yet had McLaren swapped positions of their drivers in Alonso's favour in the two races this was possible - Spain and Indy - Alonso would have won the championship by three points.

But by the same token had Hamilton been accorded number one status, and Alonso used as support, then Lewis would have won the series by 10 points (if they'd swapped in Australia, Malaysia, Monaco, Silverstone, Italy and Spa).

In the course of the season, Alonso lost four points through finishing behind Hamilton in races where a swap could have been made. Hamilton lost 11 points through finishing behind Alonso in races in the same circumstances.

Obviously, it would have been ridiculous to have asked Alonso, as reigning double world champion, to have acted as support for the title campaign of a rookie. But Hamilton's speed meant it became just as ridiculous to ask him to support Alonso's bid.

At Ferrari, Kimi Raikkonen lost only three points through finishing behind Felipe Massa in the two races where a swap would have been possible (Indy and Turkey). Without operating a number-one and two system, Ferrari's situation almost took care of itself in that over the course of the season their drivers were not as evenly matched as McLaren's.

Going into 2008 neither team intends running a number-one/number-two system - as used to be seen at Ferrari in the Schumacher years - but their best hopes for title success rest upon one of their drivers establishing a consistent superiority over the other.

It seems unlikely that Massa could turn the pattern around to become the de fact number one at Ferrari, and it's a position that Raikkonen already seems to have assumed. But to maximise his title chances Kimi really needs to get off to a cleaner getaway against Massa than he did at the beginning of last year - when Felipe was often faster

There were very convincing reasons put forward as to why Kimi initially struggled relative to his team-mate, to do with his adaptation to very different tyres. As long as they are the real reasons, then Raikkonen should have little trouble in maximising his chances right from the start this year.

At McLaren, an awful lot hangs on just how good Heikki Kovalainen is. Ironically, the team may be hoping he isn't too good. They will ensure he gets absolute equality of opportunity with Hamilton. But is he good enough to beat Lewis on occasion? Because if he is, he will be allowed to.

It's very difficult to judge relative levels of guys in different cars. Last year Heikki had a tough beginning in a horribly unpredictable car, but once Renault had got some consistency in it, then he became ever-more impressive and into the second half of the year was regularly out-performing team-mate Giancarlo Fisichella. The position of team leadership seemed to rest easily on his shoulders too.

But Fisichella's one thing, Hamilton quite another. Hamilton, with a year's head start in the team (at least), is going to be yet tougher. To threaten Hamilton's de facto number-one position in McLaren is a simply enormous ask - and may well be why the likes of Nico Rosberg didn't fancy taking the challenge on.

So if, as looks the case from the testing times to date, the Ferrari and McLaren are evenly matched on performance, the speed of Massa and Kovalainen - and whether or not they are quick enough to beat their team-mates on any given weekend - will likely be key.

As for the chasing teams, it really doesn't matter to them which of their drivers emerges as quicker. They are in the midst of trying to climb a slippery pole and which of their men gets further up that pole is of little concern to them.

Looking at the testing times to date, the BMW looks promising albeit inconsistent. It seems able to do very fast times on a high fuel load - fuel corrected on the last day of Valencia testing Robert Kubica shaded even the Ferrari's time on high fuel and was just a fraction away from McLaren - but falls further away as the stint goes on. It's as if it can work a new set of tyres very hard - and therefore it may be a quick qualifier. But as yet there's no evidence of Ferrari/McLaren-matching pace over a stint.

So far Kubica's been the one setting the quick times, with Nick Heidfeld relatively anonymous. Nick's too good for there not to be some reason behind that. Kubica looked like a superstar all the way from karting and into his early F1 races at the end of '06. Last year he looked less so for the first time. His future prospects hang on whether he can turn the tables on Nick this year.

Williams look like they have made further strides on closing the gap to the front with their FW30. It's looked consistently the third best in testing, though there is still a significant deficit to the front. Nico Rosberg will undoubtedly flourish as team leader, just as he did last year. Rookie Kazuki Nakajima is probably fast enough to keep him on his toes in qualifying from time to time.

Fernando Alonso reckons Renault need to find another 1sec per lap - and the testing times seem to validate that as spot-on. As yet Nelson Piquet Jr hasn't looked like usurping Alonso. Red Bull look pretty much on Renault's pace so far, though haven't yet done as much running to make judging them easy.

Toyota look midfield again - they've got a big aero update coming, but so has everyone else - Toro Rosso aren't far behind, and though they gave us some headlines with low-fuel/ new-tyre runs at Barcelona that put them 1-2, don't read too much into that.

Force India seem around 0.5sec adrift of Toro Rosso - but a full second clear of Honda. And if there is one thing clearer even than the superiority of Ferrari/McLaren over the rest, it is that Honda are bringing up the rear. So if Massa and Kovalainen have a tough year ahead of them, it's probably as nothing compared to Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello.