Lock Stock: the 2007 NASCAR Season Preview

The upcoming Nextel Cup season will not be just another year in the world of NASCAR. There are new rules, a new manufacturer, an ex-Formula One driver and, during the season, a new car, all of which will make the headlines at different times during the year.

But away from the new arrivals, perhaps the most remarkable point to remember is that long-time NASCAR star Jimmie Johnson no longer has to start a season wondering if it will bring him his first championship trophy.

After coming so close in recent years, Johnson finally proved he could win the title last season but now he has the even greater challenge of becoming the first driver to successfully defend it since Jeff Gordon in 1998.

Since Gordon's successful defence, no champion has finished in the top three in the standings the year after their title success - but, by contrast, Johnson has never ever finished outside the top five in the Nextel Cup standings.

The Hendrick Motorsports driver has proved his ability to be a consistent front-runner ever since his first full season in 2002, and he has been at the front regardless of the format used to decide the champion.

There are few reasons to doubt that Johnson will again be at the sharp end in 2007. He has the same team that has been so strong in recent years and, after spending the winter months enjoying the title celebrations, he is just as hungry to make sure that he can celebrate again this November.

In some ways, Johnson could find himself under reduced pressure compared to the reigning champions in the past because there will be so much more going on behind him than usual. What remains unknown, though, is how far behind him some of the new additions will be.

Montoya Mania

Much hype surrounded Juan Pablo Montoya's arrival in Formula One in 2001. After winning the Champ Car title and the Indy 500 at his first attempt, expectations were high for his career to blossom 'across the pond' and take him to the F1 world championship.

His arrival to NASCAR has been no different in terms of hype, a fact proven by the media exposure he has had since he entered a Busch race for the first time at Memphis last year. After winning the Rolex 24 hours at Daytona last month, the hype is even greater.

Early indications, however, point at a much tougher transition to NASCAR's top division than he experienced from Champ Car to Formula One. His stats from the seven stock car starts he had last year between ARCA, Busch and Nextel, clearly show how much difficulty he is facing.

In those races, Montoya had contact with the wall at least four times and rubbed fenders with a few of his new rivals on several occasions. Not only has the pure nature of stock car racing - which he claims to like so much - put him in trouble, but so has the handling of a car which has significantly less grip, downforce, stiffness, and traction than he is used to.

Montoya's arrival towards the end of 2006 almost overshadowed another open-wheel star converting to NASCAR as Champ Car racer AJ Allmendinger turned down a championship challenge with Forsythe to race for Team Red Bull.

But while Montoya was making headlines for his flashes of speed, his scrapes with the wall, and his dramatic crash at Homestead, Allmendinger failed to qualify a Dodge Charger for Team Red Bull at Texas and so far his pre-season performances in the Toyota have been quiet.

Expectations are high for Montoya. In his Champ Car years, the Colombian mastered almost every type of oval, his record showing more wins on ovals than on the street or road-courses. He only had one self-inflicted crash on an oval in two years.

He has a more experienced team behind him than Allmendinger, and taking several steps back in terms of car performance has clearly been the most difficult part of his new job so far.

Most of the field expects Montoya to set the pace at the two road-course events of the year and superspeedways like Daytona or Talladega should give him a decent chance of a good result. But the 1.5-mile tracks, with their very high average speeds and tight turns, are proving difficult for him.

Chip Ganassi Racing, with Felix Sabates, looks at Montoya as the man who will lead them into success after the team has struggled to win a race for the last four years. By signing the highly rated Formula One star they hope to attract some key people to their staff, but that process will not come to fruition overnight.

So, can Montoya win races for Ganassi in their first season? He probably can, but one thing the former Williams and McLaren racer will need to work on is his season-long consistency, something he was much criticised for lacking in his Formula One years.

In NASCAR, even with the new points system, one thing you definitely need to fight for the Nextel Cup is consistency.

Winner Takes All

Last year Kasey Kahne led the series in number of wins going into 'the Chase' - the last 10 races of the year which decide the Nextel Cup champion. He had five victories but some bad races led him to be last of the ten drivers who made the cut. It seemed odd that his tally of wins earned such little reward.

With this and several previous examples in mind, NASCAR has introduced a new points system for the title-deciding Chase and has also increased the points gap from a winner to a second-place finisher by five points. These moves hope to balance wins and consistency over the season, also encouraging drivers to go more for victories rather than settle for second.

However, recalculating the 2006 Nextel Cup results under the new points scheme, which also allows the top twelve drivers in the standings after round 26 into the Chase, there seems to be little impact on the final overall standing.

Jimmie Johnson would have still taken his first Cup title, although Tony Stewart, who failed to make the Chase, would have finished second instead of Matt Kenseth.

Kahne, who won a total of six races last season, would not have been a serious contender for the title, despite starting the Chase as the points leader thanks to the number of victories determining the initial order.

In hindsight, then, probably the most significant change in the rules looks to be the fact that more drivers will be able to fight for the Nextel Cup this year.

Another rule change for this season has been the modification of the 'past champions' rule. That used to allow a former champion to take the last position in a starting field based on his status as the most recent past champion who did not qualify for a race based on his speed or owner points. Previously, the use of this rule was not limited, but from this year, a former champion will only be able to use it six times.

It may end up being the 'Dale Jarret rule' as he seems to be the driver most likely to be affected by the change. He enters his 20th Cup season with Michael Waltrip Racing, one of the new Toyota teams.

Rising Sun

The arrival of a foreign manufacturer into the American series has been met with a mixed reaction. Some teams are afraid of the spending power that Toyota has, while others believe that it takes a lot more than cash to be successful.

But while money doesn't always guarantee results, the Japanese manufacturer never makes half-hearted attempts at motorsport and their NASCAR effort will be no different.

The manufacturer is being accused of luring key staff and drivers from other teams with its financial strength, but Team Red Bull manager Marty Gaunt has described some of the figures going around as "absurd".

As for the drivers, the experienced heads of Dale Jarrett, Michael Waltrip and Jeremy Mayfield have been impressed with what they have seen from Toyota so far but, despite the hype, they are trying to keep their ambitions in check for now.

Toyota are well aware that success in NASCAR's top tier will not come easily and, with only one of their cars currently guaranteed a place on the starting grid based on owner points, the team will need to start the season strongly to make any sort of impact in 2007.

But while Jack Roush has declared war on the Japanese manufacturer, Rick Hendrick has stated that his championship-winning outfit is going to be worrying about the usual suspects, rather than the new arrivals.

"I'm not worried about Toyota," he says. "I'm worried about Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne. I'll worry about Toyota when the time comes."

The Car of Tomorrow

With the aims of improving safety, enhancing performance, creating better racing and reducing costs for the teams in the long term, NASCAR will introduce the Car of Tomorrow this season. It will be raced in sixteen events this year, twenty-six in 2008, and for the whole season in 2009.

The most interesting technical feature of the car is its new aerodynamic configuration - the adjustable rear wing and adjustable front splitter being a novelty among stock car crew chiefs.

These aerodynamic devices will not only allow the teams to play with the aero-balance a lot more but will also reduce the need to build as many cars over a season because teams currently tend to develop cars for specific track configurations.

Nearly half of the events this year will be raced with this car, which still has some detractors between teams and drivers. Ford and Toyota will carry on with the Fusion and Camry models when they use the Car of Tomorrow for the first time, while Dodge will introduce the Avenger and Chevrolet bring in the Impala SS.

On March 25, at the half-mile Bristol Motor Speedway, the new spec machine will make its debut. It will also feature in another 12 oval events, all less than 1.5 miles, plus the two road-courses and Talladega Superspeedway. The car will not appear on the 1.5-mile ovals until 2009.

More significantly, in five out the last ten races that make up 'the Chase', the Car of Tomorrow will play its part in deciding the new Nextel Cup champion. By then, it is expected that a balance will have been reached between the teams, as it is still uncertain whether there will be a level-playing field by the time they race it at Bristol.

Cup teams are facing a tough task this year as they put in a great deal of effort to develop the new spec while continuing to run with the current spec at 20 races during the season. This has inevitably led to complaints of a cost increase, which NASCAR claims may not be the case because teams should stop building cars of the current spec.

There is every chance that the Car of Tomorrow will have a big impact on how the championship unfolds this year, although it shouldn't make much difference to the names that will be fighting over the title once the Chase begins.

Chasing the Dream

With more than 50 cars likely to be chasing the 43 spots on the grid each week, nothing can be guaranteed in NASCAR - but it is no coincidence that the same names usually appear somewhere near the top of the standings.

Johnson, as mentioned previously, is yet to experience a season outside of the top five in the Nextel Cup standings, while 2005 champion Tony Stewart's form late in 2006 showed that, when it all came together, he could be as fast as anyone. He will be determined to make the Chase for the Cup this year after missing out when he was defending his title.

Matt Kenseth will want to put a frustrating end to 2006 behind him after having to battle ill-handling cars throughout the final 10 races. He desperately tried to hang on to Johnson in the standings but was ultimately unable to give Jack Roush a third title in four years.

Roush Racing are looking to Greg Biffle to step into Mark Martin's shoes as the experienced head in the team this year, and Biffle will want to get himself back in contention for the title after missing out on the Chase last year, along with teammate Carl Edwards.

Jeff Gordon will be hoping that some of Jimmie Johnson's form can rub off on him as he tries to score that elusive fifth title. Gordon has said that he took great satisfaction in seeing the car he owns take the title, but there is no way he is about to sit back and be satisfied with a small slice of Johnson's glory again.

Kasey Kahne is being tipped for great things after a strong 2006 campaign. The Evernham Motorsport driver came of age as he took the most wins last year, and as he continues to mature he should be in a position to combine those victories with more consistency this year.

Denny Hamlin will have to achieve something special to improve on the third place he managed in his rookie season, while other drivers hoping to carry on their momentum from 2006 will be Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kevin Harvick.

All of which means that, with 12 spots available in the chase this year, there is even more chance of a few surprise names challenging for the title in a season which promises to be anything but average.

We want to hear from you!

Let us know what you would like to see from us in the future.

Take our survey

- The Autosport.com Team

Read and post comments