Daylight

When Sunday dawned bright and sunny at Suzuka for the 2006 Japanese Grand Prix, it seemed that Renault had lost their only trump card in the increasingly desperate challenge to stop Ferrari's Michael Schumacher snatching away a title that had, for most of the season, seemed like Fernando Alonso's. With the barometer rising, Michelin's wet weather advantage nullified and Alonso stranded behind the Toyota pairing on the grid, it mattered little that Alonso and Schumacher were level on points.

Nor did it matter that Schumacher had qualified behind teammate Felipe Massa on the grid. The Ferraris had been so dominant in qualifying that, especially with the Toyota buffer between them and rivals Renault, they'd be able to control the race effortlessly at their own pace.

Massa would pull over and let his team leader past, Alonso would struggle along into third place, and Schumacher would head to Brazil needing to finish fourth or lower in order to lose the championship - even if Alonso won at Interlagos.

At least, that's how the conventional thinking went. And, on many an occasion, that's exactly how it would have worked out. But nobody, and probably least of all Michael Schumacher, reckoned on an engine failure.

Schumacher has won five WDC titles since a Ferrari engine last expired on him during a race, 112 Grands Prix ago in France 2000. Where the breaking daylight and bright skies on Sunday morning had bolstered Schumacher's hopes of an eighth title, the lap 36 engine failure resulted in daylight of a different kind - ten precious WDC points opening up between Alonso and the Ferrari ace.

One hundred and twelve races is an impressive engine reliability record by any yardstick. Yet Schumacher's retirement was oddly in keeping with the historical trend. On many occasions, drivers have leaped out to a seemingly unassailable early lead in the championship, only to be hauled in by the opposition later in the season. Very, very seldom does the early leader end up losing the fight.

In 1991, Ayrton Senna saw a 34-point lead over Nigel Mansell halved by the rapidly improving Williams. With four races still to run, it was game on - until a botched pitstop effectively ended the Englishman's charge at Estoril.

Three years later, Michael Schumacher's disqualification at Spa-Francorchamps and subsequent two-race ban allowed Williams' Damon Hill to shut down what had (at one stage) been a 37-point lead for Schumacher. The pair eventually headed to the season finale in Australia separated by just one point.

In 2000, the situation was eerily similar to the current scenario. McLaren's Mika Hakkinen had eroded a 24-point Schumacher lead, and the two protagonists headed to Indianapolis with Hakkinen now two points ahead - but with Schumacher having won more races. Hakkinen's engine blew on lap 25 and, just as in 1991 and 1994, the runaway early championship leader survived a major scare to clinch the title.

As he sat waiting for the starting lights to go out on Sunday, the only thing Schumacher didn't have on his side was history.

Ironically, the Ferrari engine failure did a huge disservice to Fernando Alonso as well. Once again, the reigning champion had come across as a spoilt whiner during interviews leading up to Suzuka. Yet, once again, it made no difference to his performance in the car.

He not only dispatched the Toyotas and Massa in front of him, all equipped with ostensibly superior Bridgestone tyres, he was also matching Schumacher sector for sector right up until the blow-up.

Alonso's immediate and instinctive reaction at seeing the stricken Ferrari would have been exhilaration at inheriting an all-but-unassailable championship lead. Over time, and particularly if he also manages to beat Schumacher in Brazil, Alonso may come to regret the Suzuka failure almost as much as Schumacher does.

The two have had just one season together in comparably competitive machinery. During this brief time, they have enjoyed a ding-dong rivalry that has swung one way and then the other. Schumacher sneaked cheeky but tactically brilliant wins at Imola and Shanghai, Alonso repaid the favour by pipping the German narrowly in Bahrain and Turkey.

Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher © LAT

Alonso has, on balance, given as good as he's received - no mean feat considering that he's up against a legend at the top of his form. Yet, a future generation will likely remember Suzuka as a lucky win that effectively handed him an equally lucky championship title. It's an unfair reflection on what has been a brilliant season for Alonso.

Just as Senna regretted Prost's retirement, and just as Schumacher regretted not being able to race for longer against Senna, Alonso will undoubtedly miss Schumacher. The sight of Schumacher walking back to the pits, waving to the massed ranks of Japanese spectators, struck home the realisation that there is only one more race weekend before Schumacher passes into the history books.

For Fernando Alonso, there is also only one more chance to pit himself against the benchmark of consistency and excellence. Kimi Raikkonen will surely give Alonso as much as he can handle in 2007. But it won't be the same. Just as, for Schumacher, beating Hill was not the same as racing against Senna. Raikkonen may well turn out to be Alonso's equal, or better. But he's not Schumacher yet.

For Schumacher himself, the blown engine didn't just swing the championship balance dramatically against him. It also put him in the unusual position of being powerless over his own destiny. It doesn't matter how Schumacher drives in Brazil, what heroics he manages to pull off, only one person can decide the championship now. And, critically, that person isn't Michael Schumacher.

It's an anticlimactic way to end the most successful F1 career ever - even if Alonso drops out at Interlagos and Schumacher wins both the race and the title. However, it's far more likely that Renault will place extraordinary emphasis on reliability and Alonso will do what he does so superbly, avoid trouble and bring the car home in the points. At least, that's the conventional thinking.

However, this is F1. Particularly this season, we've learnt to expect the unexpected. The conventional thinking does not necessarily apply. There is still a constructors' championship to be decided, and Schumacher will launch himself into a supreme effort to win it for Ferrari. If Alonso is willing to take the fight to the seven-time champion one last time, the season's fireworks may not be over yet.