A Spin in Time

A betting man would have received very favourable odds on neither Michael Schumacher nor Fernando Alonso winning either the Hungarian or Sunday's Turkish Grand Prix. Predicting Honda's Jenson Button for victory in Hungary would have seen those odds lengthen considerably.

Felipe Massa's maiden victory in Turkey was more in line with the form book. Nevertheless, especially in the context of a tense and tightening championship battle, few would have foreseen a Ferrari victory for anybody other than Michael Schumacher at this stage of the season.

Massa can thank Toro Rosso's Tonio Liuzzi for the victory. Prior to Liuzzi's spin - caused by mechanical malfunction rather than driver error - at Turn 1 on lap 12, Ferrari were well set for another orchestrated 1-2 finish, as at Indianapolis. Once again, Massa's lead and pace in the early laps would be nullified by the inevitable order to drop behind Michael Schumacher and serve as a buffer between his team leader and championship rival Fernando Alonso in third place.

The safety car period following Liuzzi's spin changed the race fundamentally. For Fernando Alonso, it will seem like long overdue justice. Twice in recent races (Canada and Hungary) he'd seen commanding leads wiped out by safety car periods. At last, the safety car breaks worked in his favour, allowing him to leapfrog Schumacher in the ensuing pitstops. It also scotched Ferrari's plans of demoting Massa to second place in order to favour Schumacher's championship prospects.

For both Alonso and Massa, Liuzzi's spin came at exactly the right place and time. The precious position that Alonso gained amounted to a six-point swing in the championship, although Massa benefited perhaps even more from the incident.

Of all Michael Schumacher's Ferrari teammates, Massa was subject to the most cynicism upon signing. Both Eddie Irvine and Rubens Barrichello had joined Schumacher at Ferrari with decent credentials as solid second-tier drivers. Massa, even with a year of Ferrari testing behind him, had shown little more than a wildly erratic driving style and a propensity for spins and collisions during his early years at Sauber.

Well beaten by Sauber teammate Giancarlo Fisichella in 2004, Massa did manage to rebound and pip new teammate Jacques Villeneuve in 2005. However, Villeneuve was already considered a spent force by that stage, lending weight to the assumption that Massa was signed by Ferrari purely to back up Schumacher without unduly bothering the seven-time champion.

Both McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen and biking star Valentino Rossi were touted to join Ferrari from 2007, making Massa's tenure as a single year stop-gap driver seem even more assured. Rossi's eventual decision not to join F1 allowed Massa to dodge one bullet. However, he still faces another, as the very junior member of a potential Schumacher/Raikkonen/Massa combination for the Scuderia.

With drivers of the calibre of Jacques Villeneuve and Juan Pablo Montoya unable to secure reasonable F1 drives for 2007, Massa's maiden win couldn't have come at a better time. The most basic line dividing the talent pool is between those drivers who have won a GP and those who haven't. Massa has crossed the divide, and credibly so.

Felipe Massa, Ferrari 248 F1 © LAT

Massa knew up front that he had just one year in which to impress team owners and try to secure a future in F1. After a shaky start in the marginally competitive 2006 Ferrari, he has come good over the second half of the season. He has outscored Fernando Alonso and kept pace with Schumacher since Ferrari/Bridgestone became the dominant package at Indianapolis.

From his initially erratic style in which even going down a straight required constant corrections on the wheel, he has developed a much smoother style, closer to the 'single movement of the wheel' form of vastly more experienced drivers like Schumacher and Jenson Button. He also won on a very challenging and unconventional Istanbul circuit in searing hot conditions. If Ferrari go on to clinch at least the constructors' championship, Massa's form (relative to his old teammate Fisichella, now at Renault) will play a major part in that success.

Michael Schumacher seemed genuinely pleased at Massa's maiden win, with good reason. Massa has been an outstanding support driver for Schumacher. However, just as in late 2003, his teammate's form must now be a source of concern for the Ferrari team leader.

Schumacher has never been at his best when championships are very close. For much of the latter half of 2003, when Schumacher was under pressure from both McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen and Williams' Juan Pablo Montoya, Rubens Barrichello looked the more composed and consistent Ferrari driver. The Turkish GP provided a sense of deja vu - Massa running a flawless GP weekend, while Schumacher's mistakes at turn 1 (qualifying) and turn 8 (during the race) ruined his chances.

Schumacher's reputation was also built on his ability to greatly outperform his teammate, to be the lone challenger to a technically superior team. In 1997, it was Schumacher against two superior Williams cars. A year later, it was Schumacher against two McLarens. Since Indianapolis, it's been Alonso against two technically superior Ferraris.

Based on their free practice and qualifying pace, Alonso shouldn't have had a prayer against the Ferraris. It will be cold comfort that Schumacher had the beating of Alonso during those crucial final 15 laps, at every point on the circuit but the two places that really mattered - the infamous turn 8 and the long run to the heavy braking zone for turn 12.

It will be equally vexing for the maestro that, for the second time in as many seasons (Imola 2005 being the first), he's put Alonso under fierce and sustained pressure without being able to force a mistake from his young rival. On a circuit like Imola where overtaking is nigh impossible, Schumacher could shrug and dismiss it as a characteristic of the current formula.

Massa and Schumacher on the podium in Turkey © LAT

However, Turkey does allow overtaking, and spectators at turn 12 were treated to a feast of wheel to wheel racing and passing all afternoon. Alonso's ability to simultaneously check his mirrors and defend his lines, while continually tweaking the engine and other settings all the way around the lap to keep his nose ahead of the Ferrari, was a masterpiece of defensive driving.

As much as Schumacher needs Massa to keep performing well and taking points away from Alonso, a continuation of Massa's impressive form will cement the impression that Schumacher is challenging because the Ferrari is the better car, Alonso is challenging because he's a star driver.

It's not a fair assessment, because the situation was reversed when the Renault was dominant earlier in the season. However, in a sport where drivers are only as good as their last race, it will be the impression that lasts. It's not the way he would have wanted to end his career. If Schumacher does take the title in Brazil, he will want Fisichella, not Massa, alongside himself and Alonso on the podium.