A Season in Waiting

It was inevitable that the passing of the Michael Schumacher era would bring about a sea change shake-up in the hierarchy at the head of Formula One. After five years of Schumacher and Ferrari domination, the 2005 season marked the breakout - with the reigning champion not only failing to defend his crown, but not even figuring prominently in the championship chase.

With Ferrari hegemony giving way to a keen struggle between closely matched rivals McLaren and Renault, the 2006 season should have been one of consolidating the rivalry. Fans could have expected to witness the intensifying of the next classic driver duel between the leading teams' two franchise stars, Fernando Alonso for Renault and Kimi Raikkonen for McLaren. The icing on the cake would have been a rejuvenated Schumacher in a more competitive 2006 Ferrari, turning the championship into a titanic three-way clash.

Instead, each of the three protagonists faces possibly their last season with their current employer. It has long been known that Schumacher's contract with Ferrari expires at the end of 2006, and that the seven-time World Champion may opt to retire rather than renew.

Likewise, it has been rumoured for several months that Kimi Raikkonen, frustrated by McLaren's unreliability, was considering a Ferrari drive for 2007. The bombshell was dropped in mid-December, when McLaren trumped any rumours of Raikkonen's departure by announcing that they had signed Alonso for 2007.

That, in turn, provides the bizarre prospect of a 'season in waiting', in which the three main players are all focused more on 2007 than 2006. Of course, all three are consummate professionals who will give one hundred percent effort and commitment all year. Still, there is the factor of driver-team relationships, and the uncertainty of the intra-team dynamics when it is known that a driver is leaving. It shouldn't affect an ultra-professional outfit, but it can.

Ferrari will support Schumacher completely, as they always do. In Renault's and McLaren's case, it's not that clear-cut. Yet neither team have much choice. Alonso and Raikkonen have the benefit that their respective teammates, Giancarlo Fisichella and Juan Pablo Montoya, aren't seen as long-term winners by their employers. McLaren have bet on Alonso for their future, and Renault seem to be favouring rising GP2 star Heiki Kovalainen.

So the teams' best bet is to back their departing stars to the hilt. And they will need all the help they can get if they wish to keep winning. Now that their goal of winning both championships has been realised, Renault may not be so keen to continue splashing out the budget required to keep a team at the head of the field.

McLaren, too, have their problems. Several seasons ago, team chief Ron Dennis had to intervene swiftly to head off technical director Adrian Newey's planned switch to Jaguar. In late 2005, not even Dennis could dissuade Newey from joining Red Bull Racing.

No sooner had McLaren announced Newey's replacement in aerodynamicist Nicholas Tombazis than the rumour mill began speculating that Tombazis, too, could be leaving Woking. Assuming this is true, recovering from the dual loss of Newey and Tombazis would stretch even a monolith like the McLaren-Mercedes outfit.

McLaren, however, insist that the former Ferrari aerodynamicist will stay on with the team. In most silly seasons, that would be enough to quell the rumours. But this has not been a typical silly season.

The drivers' musical chairs has not been the only transient aspect of the new season. For yet another off-season, the looming prospect of the manufacturers' breakaway series remains unresolved. Although, hopefully, this will be the final year (perhaps even the final month) before definitive answers are reached, one way or the other.

The Grand Prix Manufacturers' Association (GPMA) continues to push for a greater share of revenue, more transparent governance and a more equitable deal for all. FIA President Max Mosley has, for his part, offered the revenue sharing flipside of cutting the costs of participating in F1. The current expectation is that the rebels will be brought back into the FIA/FOM fold, rather than following through on their threat to launch a rival series from 2008.

On the technical and regulatory side, Michelin's withdrawal from F1 at the end of the 2006 season marks another transitory season, a 'contractual obligation' year in which the French manufacturer will continue to provide its customer teams, in the full knowledge that the company has no short-term future in the sport.

It's an ideal situation for the FIA, which favours a single tyre supplier - an odd stance given that F1 is supposed to be the pinnacle of competition between rival manufacturers. However, while a Bridgestone-shod field might satisfy Max Mosley's requirements, that will only become a reality in 2007. It remains to be seen whether Michelin will have the resolve to keep developing for the whole year, and it could be another excuse for team owners to shrug off poor results with "we're just marking time until 2007..."

Qualifying format is another perennial conundrum for F1, and 2006 sees yet another effort to implement a system that is equally acceptable to fans, teams and television broadcasters. The original 12-lap format was disastrous for television, and the single-lap variants introduced to fill the television hour have not been totally satisfactory for either the drivers or the fans.

The 2006 season will see the most complicated qualifying format yet, with the hour split into three mini-sessions. The first two sessions will operate on a 'devil take the hindmost' basis, with the slowest five cars dropping out, leaving the fastest cars to contest the final twenty-minute session for pole. It won't be quite as confusing as Max Mosley suggests, but it's neither the most elegant nor intuitive solution to the qualifying problem. Look for further changes in 2007.

The one technical change that will hopefully not prove transitory is the switch from three litre V10 engines to 2.4 litre V8s. Torro Rosso (formerly Minardi) may have opted to stick with restricted V10s for 2006, but the sharp end of the grid will all be sporting the new V8 designs. It is this aspect, more than any other, that is likely to define the coming season. And, as with most changes to the technical regulations, it's been controversial.

On the one hand, it's a nod to modern F1's V8 roots, which were built on the venerable Cosworth DFV engine, winner of 154 Grands Prix. On the other hand, lopping a chunk of horsepower off the fastest racing machines is seen as a retrogressive move.

Even the drivers have mixed feelings. McLaren test driver Pedro de la Rosa concluded that cutting power while maintaining downforce has made the 2006 cars too easy to drive. Honda's Jenson Button and BMW's Jacques Villeneuve both reckon that the V8s will punish mistakes while rewarding smooth and error-free driving. Villeneuve adds that the switch to lower power V8s might also promote more overtaking.

Michael Schumacher's reaction was that the V8s are 'still enjoyable'. The 'still' is key in that comment, as Schumacher is one of only a handful of drivers in the field (Rubens Barrichello, Giancarlo Fisichella and Jarno Trulli are the others) to have raced F1 V8s in anger. David Coulthard and Jacques Villeneuve also raced during the V8 era, although both enjoyed Renault V10 power in their respective Williams cars.

It was Schumacher's exploitation of the Ford ZeTec V8's broad power band in his 1994 Benetton that led to his legendary second place finish in the Spanish Grand Prix that year - while stuck in fifth gear. But F1 technology has changed so much since then that Schumacher's V8 experience will not give him an advantage. Nevertheless, it illustrates the gulf in experience between the German and his closest rivals. Barrichello, Fisichella and Trulli were raw F1 learners in V8-powered cars; Schumacher won a World Drivers' Championship title in one.

The uncertainty and unpredictability surrounding the new engines (and the chassis built for them), Michelin's commitment, and the major driver team-hopping - all means that 2006 starts out as one of the most open championships in memory, and certainly the most open this millennium.

While Alonso and Raikkonen may be looking towards McLaren and Ferrari respectively to establish their longer-term careers, the fact remains that the 2006 championship counts just as much as any other.

Neither the Spaniard nor the Finn can afford to miss a championship opportunity, and both drivers would love to take the number one to their new employer as well. Couple that with Michael Schumacher's (possible) last hurrah, and it's set to be a classic season.