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The next Ferrari war that could decide its future F1 line-up

Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc's fight for supremacy has dominated Formula 1 headlines in 2019, but Ferrari's next driver struggle could take place next year in Formula 2

The Ferrari Formula 1 team fought wars on multiple fronts this year - between its two drivers Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel, with other teams over the legality of its engine, and with itself on reliability issues and poor strategy calls.

There's no doubt it will need better tactics when it comes to all three fronts next year if it is to take the fight to Mercedes and Red Bull.

But while Ferrari will undoubtedly hope it can win those wars before or during next season, the organisation has potentially started a new civil war for next year, albeit on a slightly different level.

In recent F1 history, Ferrari has poached the best drivers from other teams to lead its grand prix racing assault - think Michael Schumacher, Fernando Alonso, or Vettel. But its next champion is likely to be the 'homegrown' Leclerc, who came through the Ferrari Driver Academy (FDA) from a young age. Only time will tell if he heralds a new era at Ferrari, where produces its future champions at base in Maranello.

It's in the FDA that the new battle will take place, as Ferrari's crop of top juniors have all netted plum seats in the Formula 2 championship for next year. Only one them - Mick Schumacher - returns to the same team, but many of the top seats on the grid have been taken by Ferrari's future hopefuls.

The 2020 FDA F2 hopefuls


Age Team 2019 result
Giuliano Alesi 20 HWA 15th in F2
Marcus Armstrong 19 ART Grand Prix 2nd in FIA F3
Callum Ilott 21 Virtuosi Racing 11th in F2
Mick Schumacher 20 Prema Racing 12th in F2
Robert Shwartzman 20 Prema Racing FIA F3 champion

The FDA juniors in F2 this year - Callum Ilott, Schumacher and Giuliano Alesi - didn't exactly light up the championship, with Ilott completing the season as the top Ferrari hopeful.

But, with an F2 pole and two podiums to his name, the 2019 Sauber Junior Team driver seems a good place to start.

He went from karting straight into Formula 3, so it feels like he's been around forever. But he's finally scored a top seat in the second tier, and crucially, he's ready.

Ilott was the driver hurt most by the FDA's bizarre driver placement announcement last week.

The F2 FDA drivers were not revealed by their teams, but by the FDA itself, all centrally at the same time - which should have been at 1330 in Abu Dhabi on Thursday (moved from the previous Tuesday and Friday) but their teams were told a 'technical issue' intervened and many ended up announcing their new deals before Ferrari.

Announcing all the drivers together should lead any sensible media outlet to have Schumacher in its headline, given he's the son of seven-time Formula 1 champion Michael.

That said, space in online and print headlines is limited - and Schumacher doesn't really need the coverage.

While he has to race with the extra pressure of his surname, he's also had a comfortable rise through single-seaters, where he's always been with a top team, managed by a group of motorsport experts and guarded by media professionals.

The joint announcement meant Schumacher received the majority of the recognition, while drivers like Ilott had to fight for a mention, even though he was the top FDA F2 driver in 2019 and someone whose career needs the attention.

It's not just Ferrari. Other F1 teams have announced juniors in a similar way and all it does is create a reverse Robin Hood effect, taking from the poor (with less publicity) and giving to the rich (who don't realistically need more of it).

Norfolk-based Virtuosi has given Ilott the second big chance of his young career - to race in a top team. The first came in GP3 with ART Grand Prix last year, but a slightly too conservative season following crashes and criticism of his racecraft in previous years meant he was edged to third in the championship.

Asked if Plan A was F1, what would be Plan B, Schumacher playfully responds, "I'll make Plan A work."

Jumping from the Charouz-run SJT, a midfielder outfit, into a crack squad such as Virtuosi - which has gone through many guises, including when, as SuperNova, it dominated Formula 3000 against Juan Pablo Montoya in 1997 - gives Ilott a boost, as the outfit took second in the teams' championship this season.

"Being the top FDA driver in this year's Formula 2 standings is definitely a good foundation for me to build on next year," Ilott tells Autosport.

"I've always been quick, and had some consistently good results in previous years, but I haven't had the 'breakthrough' year as yet.

"I've just turned 21, and I'm still relatively young, but it's now important to focus on 2020 and show that I can do what George [Russell], Alex [Albon] and Lando [Norris] managed to do last year [and reach F1].

"Virtuosi is one of the best all-round teams in terms of experience, pace and results, so I am looking forward to becoming part of that.

"I've only been in F2 one year, but the learning curve is very steep and front-loaded, so what you learn in years one and two is much more than what you learn by years three or four in this category. I'm pretty confident we have a good starting point for 2020."

Virtuosi has always excelled at developing drivers and providing a car that manages tyres well, and that's the area Ilott and SJT lacked in last year. But that will be further complicated next season as - although the Ferrari juniors theoretically have the best seats - a key change to the tyres could shake up the order.

The switch to 18-inch tyres will make the 2020 Pirellis more difficult to get into the correct window. The update pack for the F2 car, which is expected to include new suspension parts, also has the potential to mix-up the order, although when this happens the top teams usually adapt quickest. It's why they are on top in the first place.

"For me, the new tyre is a good thing, everything is new for everyone," says new F3 champion Shwartzman.

"It's going to show who is the best at winter preparation for the season, and I have good faith in my team because they are strong in that. So hopefully when the season is going to come we're going to be straight away on the top. That's a positive sign for us."

Shwartzman won F3 not through sheer speed in 2019, but through brutal consistency. He did not finish any of the series' eight first-race events - that have a grid decided by qualifying and not a reverse order - outside of the top five, but he also took the joint-most wins, as he struck when the opportunity was there.

He was quick from the word go in F3 after the championship introduced a new car and the SMP Racing-backed Russian got his first taste of the tricky Pirelli tyres, and that rapid adaptation should carry over into F2, providing he doesn't have to change his driving style too much.

But no one has yet driven on the 2020 Pirelli tyres, and very few have driven both of the FIA F3 car and the current F2 car to provide a comparison.

Schumacher will be focused less on adapting. The most-hyped current junior single-seater driver says he is back in F2 as a move to F1 wasn't an option - despite having a superlicense.

One driver who definitely shouldn't struggle to win races next year is Armstrong, who takes the most intriguing deal of this already interesting Ferrari driver market merry-go-round

He showed rapid flashes during the season - his reversed grid win in Hungary and a drive from 18th to fourth at the Red Bull Ring proved it - but he went missing too easily for someone who won the European Formula 3 championship.

He was also driving a car that finished fourth in the championship the year before with Nyck de Vries. For reference, that year de Vries was only beaten by a trio of drivers that went on to graduate to F1 in 2019 - Russell, Norris and Albon.

Schumacher stopped short at saying he would target the title in 2020. But surely that - or at least a top five finish - is what any F1 team will be expecting if he's to be a realistic future option.

"I don't want to say fight for the championship," he says, "It is obviously a mindset. My mindset for next year is to fight for the top position and go all out."

But if Plan A is an F1 move, what's Plan B? Schumacher playfully responds: "I'll make Plan A work."

There's little doubt in most people's mind that Schumacher will make it to F1 - that he is destined to race there. But he will have to perform better, consistently, and fight for a top position in the championship in 2020.

Behind Schumacher in the 2019 standings came Alesi, son of ex-F1 driver Jean. He's failed to light up his junior single-seater career, although he probably stepped up to GP3 far too quickly. Reversed-grid wins became Alesi's bread-and butter in that category, but in his third season he was outclassed by David Beckmann, who joined the Trident team mid-season. While Beckmann won races and fought for the top spot regularly, Alesi could only do so infrequently.

Alesi remained with Trident for his first season in F2, where the Italian squad was regularly towards the back of the grid this year. Although this was a logical to step up from GP3, it was a torturous year. Even when given the chance to win with reversed-grid pole in Abu Dhabi, the best he could muster was fifth as his tyres fell away.

In moving to HWA, he joins a race-winning team - the late Anthoine Hubert took two wins for the Arden squad that had HWA engineers for the 2019 campaign, and now that the team has switched hands most staff have stayed. Alesi will be joined by Artem Markelov, who has seven seasons of F2 experience to offer as assistance. Alesi will have no excuse for not moving up the grid in 2020, although it shouldn't be hard.

One driver that definitely shouldn't struggle to win races next year is Armstrong, who takes the most intriguing deal of this already interesting Ferrari driver market merry-go-round, as he is joining ART.

The team has been dominant for the last two years - since the F2 2018 car was introduced - taking consecutive drivers' title with Russell and de Vries. Its woeful record in the teams' championship is proof it tends to put its eggs in one basket, but Armstrong should get the nod in terms of support over Christian Lundgaard - the driver Autosport expects to join Armstrong at ART.

Armstrong is, without doubt, one of the fastest drivers over one lap in any single-seater category. A year behind the majority of the drivers in the FDA in terms of experience, he lost out in 2019 with some "silly mistakes" compared to his F3 team-mate Shwartzman. He leaves the Prema Racing fold after three seasons of fighting for the title in whatever series he entered.

Armstrong must now blend that prodigious pure pace with consistency. He needs to learn from his own mistakes, but the eloquence with which he breaks down his season to Autosport is mind-boggling. He's not just aware of his mistakes, he's also willing to admit them.

"My expectations are as high as ever," Armstrong says of 2020. "I feel very happy to be in ART because they have huge experience with strong drivers. I haven't been here for very long but I have the impression they really know how to teach the drivers the right thing.

"It's more important to have the right people around me, which I think I do at ART. They are very professional.

"It's going to be very important to not make the same mistakes I did this year. In terms of raw speed we were there and, if I'm really honest, I don't believe anyone is faster than me in a one-lap situation. It's all about executing the race weekend - and a championship well - without making those silly mistakes."

So while he is one of the most inexperienced of the group and the 'greenest', his pace and ART's F2 record could become an unbeatable partnership - if they can solve the inconsistency issue. Or it may end in tears.

Either way, it's a gamble for both sides and the result will probably define whether Armstrong makes it to F1 or does not. He has to be the favourite for next season with Ilott a close second - incidentally, the pair live together in the same flat in Maranello.

The friendship of the five - who either frequent Maranello regularly or live there - will be tested as they go up against each other for the same title.

All five have not competed in the same championship at the same time before, although factions have often raced against each other. But, as part of the FDA group, they often play basketball or tennis and hang out in Italy between races.

In 2020, all five are facing crucial years as they look to impress Ferrari, which can't be too far away from parting ways with Vettel as he's reaching the twilight of his career. It's at that crossroads where we will see if Ferrari is ready to double down on its youth policy and pair Leclerc with another young charger.

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