Will the Russian Grand Prix happen?

It started with the second grand prix to be contracted by Formula One Management, namely Bahrain's 2004 race, and has continued ever since: fixtures staring cancellation in the face; in some instances, such as New Jersey's stillborn round, being canned even before the inaugural event.

Others, like Korea and India, joined Bahrain in staring cancellation in the face until the very last minute due to construction/organisational hiccups, with both (plus Valencia's torpid street grind and Turkey) now off the schedule indeterminately.

Even Malaysia stood in dire danger until weeks before its first race in October 1999, but that was overlooked at the time due to the impact on the championship of Michael Schumacher's Silverstone crash and the elevation of Ferrari team-mate Eddie Irvine to title challenger.

History records that Schumacher led handsomely before handing the race to Irvine, who was subsequently disqualified over irregular bargeboards.

To Ecclestone's delight, the Scuderia was able to persuade the governing body that a tolerance applicable to long, flexible horizontal surfaces should apply to short and robust vertical components, and so the title race went to the wire in Japan a week later.

In the ensuing pandemonium the threats to Sepang International Circuit's inaugural race went unreported.

The record equally shows that Bahrain's 2011 race was canned due to political strife and, given the political issues that have since afflicted Turkey and Spain (plus wannabe hosts such as Argentina, Mexico and Greece), folk in Azerbaijan have reason to worry about their country's future stability.

As an aside, one wonders whether any deal has actually been signed between Ecclestone and the Baku promoters as last week alleged by Azad Rahimov, Azerbaijan's Minister of Youth and Sports, for immediately after Ecclestone was charged with bribery, CVC Capital Partners - holder of the sport's 100-year rights via a convoluted deal - announced that the 83-year old had been stripped of executive authority.

So, if signed with Ecclestone, the deal is obviously not "significant", or CVC has undergone an unannounced change of heart despite Munich court proceedings being in full swing.

Sergey Sirotkin and Sauber carried out a demo run at Sochi

Back to the issue in hand: this writer analysed the mortality rate of emerging grands prix over the past 10 years, with the bottom line being that half have fallen prey to red ink at some stage (see table below).

In fact, if Russian sources are correct, Sochi's event scheduled for October could soon join the list of aborted rounds, for increasing pressure is being brought to bear upon the sport to abandon Russia's first grand prix due to sanctions being imposed on the country (and its heavy hitters) over the Crimean/Ukraine crisis.

Indeed, rumours first surfaced immediately after Sochi's Winter Olympics - held at an estimated cost of £34bn in the midst of the Ukrainian crisis - that President Putin, faced with horrific costs for security detail, had a rethink about the grand prix, which would demand similar levels of security, albeit for a shorter period, but with reduced payoff for the country.

Said our source: "Our president is questioning whether it will be worth it for a race, and when he questions something it seldom happens..."

In addition, poor overall spectator attendance at the Olympics is said to have played a role, for if Russians, well known for their love of winter sports, could not be bothered to visit a warm region in the middle of winter to see the star ice athletes competing, what chance does grand prix racing - of which the average Russian understands zero, save that Vitaly Petrov lost his drive and Daniil Kvyat is attempting to establish himself - stand?

Then, the logistics are frightening for the average Russian: there are just six direct Aeroflot flights per day from Moscow, plus a handful of low-cost airlines flying the route, providing a total of just 2000 seats daily.

Car journeys take almost 24 hours, while trains clatter along for a mindboggling 36 hours to attend a sport Russians generally have no feeling for. Surface travel from St Petersburg adds 12 hours to each mode.

If Turkey, at the opposite end of the Black Sea, failed to pull 20,000 punters despite its enormous local population (Istanbul, 14m), enthusiastic Balkan catchment area and superb circuit, what chance a small seaside resort (pop. 350,000) sandwiched between the Crimean peninsula and Georgia (which is also having issues with Russia)?

Factor in that there will apparently be but one grandstand in Sochi - opposite the pits - with the cars disappearing through a maze of Olympic buildings for the rest of each lap, and attraction is hard to find. Already Russian sponsors are questioning the visibility factor, while the promoters seem to have forgotten that the initial $60m hosting fee was paid up front.

Given the political pressure currently being brought to bear on Russia, it was no surprise when a Moscow-based source last week advised this writer that internal pressure had been brought to bear on the US GP organisers and Automobile Competition Committee for the United States, the FIA franchise holder in the Land of the Free, with ACCUS president Nick Craw in his second term as president of the FIA's Senate.

Vettel visited Sochi last year

Allegedly, high-level calls have been made for the Russian race to be boycotted, particularly as the current schedule has cars and kit travelling directly from Moscow to New York and onto Austin. The FIA has not commented on the matter, but folk in the corridors of power in 8, Place de la Concorde are believed to be monitoring the situation carefully.

The FIA is in an invidious position: it exists to further and protect the interests of motorists - be they travel, touring or sporting - across the globe, and by its mandate cannot side politically unless the safety and security of participants and officials are at stake. Sanctions are hardly life-threatening, and no country has as yet issued travel advisories against Russia.

Thus the only real chance of the event being voluntarily cancelled is via FOM, but the chances of CVC voluntarily pulling its most valuable race - estimates place the total value of the contract at £200m over five years, 50 per cent of which was paid upfront - are only marginally better than Antarctica hosting a grand prix. Thus the FIA waits for CVC, and CVC waits for political pressure.

There exists, though, a powerful precedent to cancel the event: in 1985, when South Africa preceded Australia, Adelaide airport handlers refused to offload 'apartheid-tainted' freight until assured that Kyalami's race would be scrapped; it was, until well after Nelson Mandela's release. Imagine if the US GP (and back-to-back Brazilian Grand Prix) were cancelled due to the cars not reaching the US (or not being off-loaded).

Pressure is also being brought to bear upon the sport from within Europe, with Monday's The Times reporting that "Sir Richard Ottaway, chairman of the House of Commons foreign affairs select committee, described the grand prix as 'wildly unrealistic' against a background of mounting tension between the West and Russia, and warned that further sanctions could put paid to the event".

Ottaway is quoted as saying: "If a new round of tougher sanctions is introduced, Formula 1 may find it impossible to put on a race because of restrictions on the flow of cash."

Mercedes could face pressure in Germany, as could Renault Sport in France, but for Pirelli the situation is reversed: Russian conglomerate Rosneft - the world's largest listed oil company - controls 13 per cent of the rubber company's stock, although Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin reportedly appears on the EU sanction list together with his Gazprom equivalent.

All this spells a massive blow for Sauber, which last year cut deals with various Russian entities for commercial and technical support, and initially planned to race with Russian branding this year. Also affected by Russia's situation is Marussia ('Mother Russia'), whose majority owners recently closed their fledgling car company and will surely have been hit by the plummeting rouble.

Marussia has also been affected by Russia's situation © XPB

The race may still be staged against all odds, but, barring political pressure, that decision could fall as late as Suzuka Sunday in October, much as the final decision as to whether to stage Bahrain's 2012 round was taken immediately after the race in China, from where the cars were scheduled to fly to the desert island. At the point the option was Bahrain or Europe, and so it could be in Japan: Russia or straight to the US.

In the final analysis it is somewhat ironic that the political aspirations of one world champion, namely boxing's Vitali Klitschko - whose political movement, the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, played a major role in democratic unrest in the country - could scupper the hopes and future of a totally unconnected world championship sport in a neighbouring country.

That is, though, as much a function of prevailing times as it is a reflection of the countries Formula 1's current controllers choose to associate with in their quest for fast bucks.

New GPs in the last decade:
Bahrain 2004*
China 2004
Turkey 2005**
Valencia 2008**
Singapore 2008
Abu Dhabi 2009
South Korea 2010**
India 2011**
USA (Austin) 2012
USA (New Jersey) 2013***
Austria 2014
Russia 2014 ?

Key:
? Doubtful
* One round cancelled
** Cancelled
*** Stillborn