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Feature

Will Hamilton's F1 record ever be broken?

OPINION: Lewis Hamilton has joined Michael Schumacher on a piece of Formula 1 history that some thought would never be reached again. Here's the case for and against the all-time win record being extended further in future years

Formula 1 statistics rather mirror the endeavour itself - the emotion of sporting success and human achievement matched with cold, hard facts.

It's the former that makes motorsport so interesting, but the latter that sums up success. It often does this distortedly - given opposition level, strike rate and car quality must be added for consideration of 'greatness'.

Nevertheless, Lewis Hamilton's triumph in the Eifel Grand Prix put him level with Michael Schumacher at the top of F1's all-time win list, with 91 apiece. It's the achievement we will consider - and whether it will ever be scored again.

As things stand, Hamilton does not hold the record outright. But, although it would be wrong to assume anything given the state of the world these days, he will surely go on to take it for himself in the remaining six races of 2020.

It is entirely likely that he will extend the outright record considerably, too. After all, with no other top F1 seats available and Hamilton knowing exactly how good he has it with a team that recognises his exceptional abilities, there is little chance he will not be racing for Mercedes into 2021 and a fresh contract is surely heading his way in the coming weeks.

Next year, thanks to the coronavirus cost-saving measures, the current machines will be essentially carried over - other than tweaks to cut downforce levels by 10%. Given the W11 is the class of the field, there is no logical reason to assume it will not be again next year, with the downforce-slashing regulation overhaul of course postponed to 2022.

PLUS: How F1's win record has been pushed up and up

"Ultimately I think you just have to be grateful for all that you have to this point," Hamilton said after winning at the Nurburgring. "Of course, I can set goals and I'll continue to charge on and try to see what is possible. I think I've got the best team behind me, who continuously inspire me.

"I do feel, whilst I'm older than these guys [he's racing against], I feel as young as them - at least, in spirit. I'm still very much a kid when I'm off the camera. That will probably change when I start seeing grey hairs and stuff but I'm good for now!" Lewis Hamilton

"I love the challenge. It is so hard and I think I would be willing to say there's potentially not enough respect that is probably given to all these drivers, who dedicate their lives in terms of preparation, the amount of work that goes on in the background. To be able to do what all of us do in this sport, past and present, is really remarkable and I love being a part of that.

"The sport, the smell of it, the whole aura and atmosphere it creates is going to be difficult to let go. But I do feel, whilst I'm older than these guys [he's racing against], I feel as young as them - at least, in spirit. I'm still very much a kid when I'm off the camera. That will probably change when I start seeing grey hairs and stuff but I'm good for now!"

So, will the all-time win record ever be held by another F1 driver? Obviously, the cliched "never say never" must apply.

Of Hamilton's current rivals, including the returning Fernando Alonso, eight have won F1 races. Sebastian Vettel is third on the all-time win list with 53, but right now seems unlikely to add to his tally, let alone in huge numbers - given his age and the quality of his current car. The same goes for Alonso (32) and Kimi Raikkonen (21).

Valtteri Bottas will surely add to his nine wins, but his presence at Mercedes is continually under threat. Daniel Ricciardo will not be moving into a frontrunning car with McLaren in 2021 (although, as with all the non-Mercedes teams, it remains possible a 2022 competitiveness revolution will take place) and Pierre Gasly is not guaranteed he will ever get back to 'Class A', even with his brilliant Monza win and generally great 2020 drives.

There are really only two drivers that we might consider having the combination of age and car quality on their side (and one of them doesn't even have that in 2020): Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, with nine and two wins respectively. Verstappen reached that tally in 107 F1 races, Leclerc in 35, while Hamilton took 34 and six races to reach those scores.

PLUS: Why time is running out on Red Bull's "big goal" for Verstappen

It's important to remember 2022 when considering the all-time win record.

If F1 gets its way and the new cars produce close racing with multiple victors, that will dilute the concentration of winners and mean it will likely take longer for anyone to reach the ultimate total, which will probably still be being extended at this future point in Hamilton's career. It's the same reason why Niki Lauda retired for the first time in 1979 with 'just' 17 wins - F1 then was more competitive.

Yet at the same time, in a totally level playing field right now in car-design terms, with reliability and in-race randomness clinically removed, the wins would surely be split by 2020's two standout drivers: Hamilton and Verstappen...

Returning to the possibility of the record not being matched again, Mercedes proved in 2017 that it can win through regulation changes. This is what stopped the dominant eras that came before - Ferrari in the early 2000s, Red Bull the early 2010s.

But, of course, it remains possible another driver will claim the record, and time is a major factor here.

For a start, Hamilton will stop eventually - and from the outside it's hard to see him racing on for the sake of it a la Raikkonen. He has plenty of other interests going on, which now extend to Extreme E team ownership and his laudable campaigning for racial equality.

The rivals we've highlighted are much younger (Verstappen 23 and Leclerc 22) and it seems ever more likely, when normal times return, that F1's calendar will be expanded again towards 25 races per year.

F1 has always had periods of domination - from Alfa Romeo and the initial win record holders Giuseppe Farina and Juan Manuel Fangio, through Lotus and Jim Clark, McLaren and Williams, Ferrari with Schumacher and Vettel's Red Bull

The (unscheduled) Nurburgring and Imola two-day weekends will go some way to showing if this is logistically possible - even if last weekend rather proved it won't shake up the competitive order in isolation...

And then there's F1's nature. It has always had periods of domination - from Alfa Romeo and the initial world championship win record holders Giuseppe Farina and Juan Manuel Fangio, through Lotus and Jim Clark, McLaren and Williams, Ferrari with Schumacher and Vettel's Red Bull.

The intention behind F1's delayed rules revision is to reset the competitive order.

But, given the teams are ultimately out to achieve perfection at every event, it would be unwise to assume that even if this aim is successful that another squad, armed with an exceptional driving talent, won't come along and eventually encroach on the patch of history Hamilton is establishing with Mercedes.

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