Will F1 have a three-way fight to the end of 2019?

You can count the races left on this year's Formula 1 calendar on one hand. Now that the 2019 Russian Grand Prix is, team orders controversy and all, consigned to the history books, there's just five races left. While the drivers' championship appears to be all but a foregone conclusion, with Lewis Hamilton edging closer to his sixth title, there's still a lot to play for.

Those five final rounds will take place over two months in three different continents, rendering Phileas Fogg's efforts to traverse the world in 80 days look leisurely in comparison.

First, the field will head to Suzuka, before a double-header in North America takes F1 to Mexico City before a border-hop (or jump, depending on the height of the wall) to Austin. A brief sojourn in South America and Sao Paulo follows, before the season reaches its conclusion in Abu Dhabi. That's a run of five very different battlegrounds.

Most crucially, with eyes towards 2020, this year's development race is slowing down. The previous two rounds at Singapore and Sochi have provided a clear indication of where each of the big three teams stands and, barring any surprises, we can estimate how things might play out at the final quintet of circuits. The caveat of that, of course, is that we could be off the mark.

Suzuka: A technical triumph

Formula 1's only figure-of-eight circuit, Suzuka breaks down nicely into three distinct sectors. Given the run of form at the start of the year, Suzuka would likely have been another Mercedes whitewash, owing to its aero balance and prowess during the medium speed sections.

Now, it has the potential to be an evenly fought race between Mercedes and Ferrari, following the latter's Singapore upgrade.

Overall, Mercedes still excels in the lower-speed sections. At Sochi, both Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas frequently had the edge in sector three - and while Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel would often light up the opening pair of sectors in a garish shade of purple, the Mercedes duo would push the third sector out of Ferrari's reach.

The SF90, while stonkingly quick in a straight line, does still seem to be a little uneasy on the corner exit. Leclerc seems to have that corner exit snap under control, although has endured moments on his previous pair of pole laps - and thought he'd be "in the wall at least twice, or three times" in Singapore.

While Ferrari's new aero package has drastically improved the front end, there's still a relative degree of inconsistency at the rear, and Vettel has borne the brunt of that in qualifying trim.

Ferrari's car should be less egregious in the first sector, and the SF90 now looks at ease with riding bumps and dealing with quick changes of direction.

Red Bull should perform here too, but the ultimate drive out of the corners and into the Degners depends on how strong the 'Spec 4' Honda power unit is.

Mercedes will also be fine, but it'll be the second sector in which it most likely prevails. The W10 should be more balanced in the Degners, and even more so in the hairpin. One expects the Spoon curve to be much more to the Mercedes's taste too, and the decreasing speeds and increasing steering lock mean that braking is often difficult. Out of the two cars, it's realistic to imagine the Ferrari stepping out of line at Spoon more than the Mercedes.

The final sector puts the ball firmly in Ferrari's court, and it should be able to rocket down the hill towards the final chicane with consummate ease. But like Sochi, Mercedes has won here for the past five years, while Ferrari hasn't won at Suzuka since 2004. Expect a compelling battle between the two for victory, with Mercedes just edging it.

Mexico: Into thin air

Max Verstappen has won the past two races in Mexico, and the smart money here is on him to do again. The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is unique, operating between the seemingly impossible duality that the highest-downforce specification of car is used while simultaneously yielding the highest top speeds of the calendar.

Mexico City is 2250m above sea level, the highest altitude on the F1 calendar for a circuit. In standard conditions, the density of air is 1.225 kg/m3 at sea level. At 2000m, the density drops to 1.007kg/m3, and that has an effect on both powertrain and aerodynamics.

With a reduced air density, drag automatically drops by about 18%, although downforce will do in kind, as density is a component of both force outputs.

Red Bull, which has traditionally run a high-downforce car at the expense of high drag, will be less exposed with its aerodynamic philosophy here and should be in a position to shine.

Red Bull's previous victories were with Renault, however, and this year's new partnership with Honda has the potential to change the shape of the weekend if the Japanese manufacturer's turbo is effective enough. The lower air density means that there's a reduced concentration of oxygen needed for combustion in the mass flow rate of air passing through the engine intake system.

That's why the turbochargers get such a workout at Mexico, as they're called upon to plug the shortfall even further, and the compressor has to work harder to force the same density of air into the internal combustion engine. Otherwise, the engine will be wheezing along the straights short of power.

Ferrari, however, should provide a very stern challenge in Mexico too, and will surely set the first sector times alight. This could shake out in a similar vein to the Austrian Grand Prix, where Verstappen and Leclerc took centre stage, while Mercedes struggled with engine cooling and had to turn the dial down. In Mexico, cooling apertures will have to be crowbarred open to the maximum, so it's a very real prospect.

Austin: Ferrari from the madding crowd

Ferrari should, on the face of it, batter the rest of the field in Austin. Firstly, there's two long straights. Secondly, the SF90 should be able to climb the kerbs in the first sector nicely. And thirdly, if we want to be a bit mean-spirited, even Kimi Raikkonen won last year.

The long straight, a full kilometre in length (or 0.62 miles, for you imperialists) will have people waxing lyrical about Ferrari's chances, but the final sector will once again be one of those which Mercedes excels in.

Based on both Hockenheim's stadium section and Istanbul's famous Turn 8, the W10 should be sufficiently glued to the ground in those corners. That all being said, Ferrari's new floor upgrade has been a huge boost to its formerly one-dimensional chariot, and proved its worth in Singapore with its wealth of 90-plus degree corners.

But discount Red Bull at your peril. Verstappen started 18th last season, and hauled his way up to second to finish just 1.5s down on Raikkonen.

While the RB15 shouldn't be expected to play a part in qualifying, there will be a very real chance that its race pace, especially in the first and last sectors, will count for a realistic shot at victory.

Interlagos: Wet race could make a splash

As brilliant as the Interlagos circuit can be, it's a very tight and undulating stretch of road. It's rare that passing extends to anywhere but the first corner in the dry, and so the emphasis will be on maximising the result in qualifying and then benefitting from the narrow track to hold station.

While the middle sector would usually be a Mercedes benefit concert, Leclerc proved to be hugely impressive last season - and would have outqualified ex-team-mate Marcus Ericsson had he been able to stitch his sectors all together.

This year, Leclerc's been exceptional at piecing together the whole lap, and the Ferrari's improved turn-in thanks to the new nostril nose and associated components will give him the confidence he needs to turn in a pole lap.

Then, it'll be down to strategy. Mercedes, you gather, is less likely to make questionable strategic decisions compared to Ferrari and with safety cars a very realistic proposition given the compact nature of the circuit, another Sochi situation is possible. But a straightforward, incident-free dry race will be won from pole - as the formbook goes, that's Leclerc's wheelhouse.

Red Bull, of course, can be a huge factor. Verstappen should have won last year, save for Esteban Ocon's burst of buffoonery contriving to gift Hamilton victory, and if the Dutchman is able to turn in a lap like his efforts in Hungary, then he'll be a very real threat.

Red Bull has been steadily developing its aerodynamic package over the season, and in recent rounds a new bargeboard package has been in the offing to improve the interaction with the front end.

The RB15 will have the downforce to compete, and on the chance that the skies decide to bequeath Sao Paulo with a heavy downpour, it's the car that's most equipped to deal with the wet weather.

Having spent some of his time designing sailboats for the America's Cup, Adrian Newey has clearly transferred some of that knowledge to the realm of Formula 1...

Abu Dhabi: The twilight zone

As Abu Dhabi's day-into-night race offers a literal interpretation of the sun setting on another year's racing, there's a chance that we could get a very real showdown to close 2019. Given the title will most likely be sewn up by then, unless Hamilton walks under a series of ladders between now and Suzuka, it won't evoke the same nailbiting tension of 2010 and '16's races at Yas Marina.

But it promises to be a race of two halves. Sector two comprises two whopping straights punctuated by tight corners, offering a readymade overtaking zone. Ferrari should chew up the miles here; in qualifying at Sochi, Toto Wolff estimated that Mercedes was losing 0.8s per lap to the Ferraris in the straights, and Abu Dhabi's flat-out sections present a similar prospect.

Ferrari should also benefit from the harsher ride that the W10 will face when it comes to the chicanes after each straight. The level of compliance that the Ferrari has, particularly in the front end, means that the car offers quite a neutral level of steering that isn't too affected by the size of the bumps. Long-term, it might dial in a little more tyre wear, and it might be part of the season Ferrari often begins to flag towards the end of a race, but it means that the all-or-nothing qualifying laps are in its favour.

A new heave spring element in the W10's front suspension set-up means the team can enjoy a little more adjustability with the torsion bar spring rates, so it shouldn't be too compromised in the chicanes, but it'll take a big turnaround to steal the second sector from Ferrari.

Mercedes will make up time in sector three, but the point-and-squirt nature of those corners offers very little in the way of overtaking possibilities. The expectation is that, extrapolating from the race at Sochi, Ferrari will be able to get out in front and dictate the pace, sitting back in the final sector to make it difficult for Mercedes to launch an attack.

On the back of Singapore and Sochi, Ferrari seems to have the momentum. Having struggled to perform on anything other than the high-speed circuits early on, the Scuderia's 2019 car has developed into a bit of an all-rounder.

But as Mercedes fixates on a return to form and Red Bull visits circuits it has traditionally been good at, the end of the season has the potential to yield a three-way fight for the end-of-season bragging rights.