Why wide-open German GP is all about the drivers

Heading into any grand prix weekend, there's no shortage of conventional wisdom chucked around on the subject of which car the track in question might favour.

Sometimes that expectation is accurate, although surprises such as Ferrari prevailing at Silverstone in the British Grand Prix two weeks ago still spring up.

But some tracks defy categorisation and don't neatly fall into the obvious realm of any car; German Grand Prix venue Hockenheim is just such a circuit.

The expectation was it would be nip and tuck between Ferrari and Mercedes, which Friday practice suggested might be the case - with the added bonus of Max Verstappen's interloping Red Bull setting the pace.

"It will be very close with them and Mercedes," said Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo on Thursday. "I think they will be within a tenth, whichever driver does the better job will probably get the pole."

Other than not including his own team in that equation, perhaps not a surprise given he will start at the back thanks to engine penalties and the knowledge that Ferrari and Mercedes always have more to offer with qualifying engine modes, Friday practice backed up Ricciardo.

During Friday's second free practice session, the ultrasoft Pirellis were the tyre of choice. Verstappen's was the fastest lap set by an F1 car on the truncated Hockenheim, despite having to squeeze past the cruising Hamilton through the Sachskurve right hander.

When things get this close - if they stay this close - then Ricciardo is right that it really can come down to drivers. Great as even the best are, infallibility is impossible and while we routinely refer to a tenth of a second as a significant unit of time it can be gained or lost faster than the blink of an eye.

The gap covering the top three teams was 0.225s, which covered Verstappen, both Mercedes drivers and Sebatian Vettel. Usually, Ferrari makes good gains from Friday to Saturday so you can expect Vettel to get in among the top two, or just beyond, come tomorrow.

"I think we're still missing a little bit for one-lap performance," said Vettel, as he usually does on Fridays. "I wasn't entirely happy with the only shot I had on the ultrasoft. But the car is fine and I think we can still gain a bit."

Single-lap pace

1 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m13.085s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m13.111s
3 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m13.310s
4 Haas (Grosjean), 1m13.973s
5 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m14.374s
6 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m14.496s
7 Force India (Ocon), 1m14.508s
8 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m14.793s
9 McLaren (Alonso), 1m14.836s
10 Williams (Stroll), 1m15.269s

What's more, Ferrari's long-run pace on the ultrasoft tyres was encouraging. Based on seven counting laps, with anomalous slow ones disregarded, Vettel had an edge of just over a tenth from Hamilton's Mercedes.

Hamilton suspects that more reflects the competitive order than single-lap pace, especially given Ferrari's engine strength.

"Every Friday they sandbag, so it doesn't mean much," said Hamilton. "They were quick today and I think tomorrow will be very much similar, unless all of a sudden they pull out even more time.

"But today they were very very quick on the straights, which I find really interesting because they've not had a new engine but all of a sudden they've got a lot more power. It will be interesting to see if they still have that tomorrow." 


As for Red Bull, there's no data as neither driver did enough on the ultrasofts on a long-run programme. That said, Verstappen's few laps before he stopped with an oil leak suggested Red Bull would be in the game, albeit closer to the Mercedes pace than Ferrari.

But given the high temperatures on Friday, the ultrasoft is likely to be a tyre most teams try to avoid if they can. The exception might well be Ferrari, which generally gets the ultrasofts working well and can manage the blistering others suffer - something that also explains Vettel's pace.

The Ferrari appeared able to run long on ultrasofts reasonably effectively. Red Bull, at times, has had similar success but also went out of its way to avoid the ultrasofts at the French and Austrian Grands Prix, as did Mercedes.

Long-run pace (ultrasofts - 7 laps)

1 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m18.198s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton ), 1m18.311s
3 Force India (Perez), 1m19.092s
4 Toro Rosso (Hartley), 1m19.329s
5 Renault (Sainz), 1m19.496s*
6 McLaren (Alonso), 1m19.572s
7 Haas (Magnussen), 1m19.625s
8 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m19.843s*
9 Williams (Stroll), 1m20.117s
*6-lap run

There's also a question about what strategies will be possible in the race. Hamilton suggested it might end up being a two-stopper, but with good management Pirelli reckons a one-stopper is possible, using the mediums for a marathon stint. But starting on the softs would certainly help that.

The key questions from today are whether Red Bull can stay competitive on single lap pace when the engines are turned up. The answer to that is most likely not. 


Even so, Hamilton is not writing Red Bull off, agreeing that he's going to need a Silverstone special style lap to take pole.

"I think so, being that both Red Bulls are really quick," said Hamilton when asked if he needed a repeat of his Silverstone pace. "Seb's been real quick today so I think it's going to be a serious challenge."

But despite all of that, it's still likely to be close. And that's where the drivers come in. Hamilton supported Ricciardo's suggestion that pole position will be down to whoever does the best job in the cockpit.

"It's not an easy lap to get right," said Hamilton. "My lap out there was down already two tenths in the first sector. Turn 1 is kind of a guessing game, it's so fast you have a small lift and it's back to full throttle. It's insane, some of these corners here." 


Then there's the added chaos of traffic in the final sector. There were moments on Friday when the stadium section was hugely congested with drivers backing up to ensure their tyres were at the optimium temperature to start a push lap, so expect more of the same in qualifying.

There's one other crucial factor that could make this weekend more about the drivers than usual - rain. Current forecasts suggests the water will hit Hockenheim in the early hours and then, with growing enthusiasm, remain for the whole day.

A wet qualifying session would render most of what was learned on Friday moot, and mean it will be down to the drivers to make the best of it after a sighter during FP3.

Last time that happened for the German Grand Prix at qualifying was in 2012, when Fernando Alonso claimed what currently stands as his last pole position, ahead of Sebastian Vettel.

It would be stretching a point to suggest there could be a repeat of Alonso's pole position if it does rain, but it would certainly shake things up. And given how close things were in the dry, even if the weather changes it should be a closely-fought battle.

It seems Hockenheim isn't going to favour anyone, unless Ferrari can repeat its surprise of Silverstone, so it could all boil down to a driver seizing favourite status with their performance during qualifying. 


A quick lock up here, a slightly wide moment there, a misjudgement of how much speed you can carry into a corner could make all the difference. 
Just as it should be.