Why the Ferrari dream is as good as over for Vettel

What began at Monza 11 years ago may just have ended there last Sunday. Charles Leclerc cut a similarly euphoric figure to the other 21-year-old who strode across the bridge to Formula 1's most iconic podium back in 2008, but the contrast after the latest running of the Italian Grand Prix could not have been starker. What would Sebastian Vettel have given to have emulated his younger self and won again?

It feels like the decisive generational shift, one that's been coming all season. Vettel will have headed to Monza believing all he needed was a clean run and a Tifosi-pleasing victory to end his year-long drought.

Instead, he finished an anonymous 13th after an unforced error on the sixth lap, which was compounded by a dangerous recovery that was symptomatic of his desperation. Leclerc is now the man at Ferrari, both inside the team and for the adoring fans.

To write off Vettel's time at Ferrari when he still has a season and a half left on his contract may seem rash, and history could yet prove it to be so. In fact, it would be wonderful for this column to be proven wrong.

Those who believe Vettel somehow lucked into his four world championship titles didn't see him at his virtuoso best in the Red Bulls of 2010-13, so this is more complicated than a driver who has been exposed for what he really is at Ferrari.

But what happened at Monza was not a one-off. Much as Vettel will seek to rationalise the weekend's events, pointing to the error as a run-of-the-mill one that can happen to any driver, as he usually does, he will know in his heart of hearts that it's part of a bigger picture. It was Vettel's eighth major error in 25 races, a big enough sample size to be called a pattern rather than a spike of misfortune.

Vettel went to Ferrari as the new saviour after the failure of the Fernando Alonso era. He has fallen far short of the level expected of him, and the level he expects from himself, over the past year.

Whether he realises it or not, Vettel seems broken. The Vettel/Ferrari axis seems doomed to failure

We can only guess at what's going on in Vettel's mind - and there could be personal factors we know nothing about contributing to his difficulties - but in the quiet moments when it's just him and his thoughts he will know this can't be rationalised.

Just as we can, he can look to the moments where the magic is evident, the pace that shows itself in fits and starts, and say that he's still got it. But the results, over a long period of time, simply are not there.

Presumably, he is either in outright denial of the facts or exasperated by his own failure to pull out of the career nosedive - probably the latter.

Drivers thrive on confidence and we can only imagine what a Monza win might have done for Vettel. It was closer than it seemed, too, because Leclerc's opening Q3 run was beatable. Vettel had no chance on the first runs because he was at the front of the queue with no tow, but for the second he was due to run behind Leclerc.

The farcical scenes at the end of the session denied him his shot at pole. No wonder he was so unhappy with Leclerc's hesitancy to go back past him during the outlap.

To make matters worse, he can look across the garage and see exactly what every ageing athlete fears - themselves, only a decade younger and better.

Leclerc is the disruptive force, a driver who has done something Vettel never managed by delivering for the home fans at Monza. Vettel was once the thrusting young superstar.

Deep down, does he believe he is capable of rising to the challenge of the spearheads of the next generation - Leclerc and Max Verstappen? And would he, therefore, be better off walking away and remembering himself, as we should, at his brilliant best doing impossible things with exhaust-blown Red Bulls that he could manipulate with the artistry of an all-time great?

We can only judge by what we observe and can learn from outside Vettel's head. But whether he realises it or not, he seems broken. The Vettel/Ferrari axis seems doomed to failure.

So what now? There are several possibilities. First, he might yet turn it around, as the one weapon he still has in his arsenal is time. There's another 12 months on his contract and Ferrari doesn't need to oust him, as it did Kimi Raikkonen at the end of 2009, to accommodate a big-name signing from outside. It has Leclerc. Twenty-nine races is a long time and he might yet recover.

After all, it's always darkest before the dawn. Maybe a car suited to his style, with a strong front end and a rear he can control the rotation of, will allow him to get back to his best. Certainly, he will be far more confident with a higher level of downforce than Ferrari currently offers - Leclerc has been happier with the car's feel throughout the season, after all.

He's probably telling himself that next year will be better with a championship-challenging car that's well-suited to him. But that doesn't eliminate the problem of the mistakes and, fundamentally, he is still quick despite the fact that he hasn't beaten Leclerc in qualifying since Canada in June.

History says he's a four-time world champion and those successes can never be taken away from him, but he is not performing like one. And hasn't done for the past year

But while we can't rule that out - and it would be a boost for F1 if he can bounce back - other paths now seem more likely. Some have suggested it's time to retire, something Vettel has consistently shrugged off. At 32, he has plenty more laps in him, provided he really does have the desire to dig deep and push himself to the edge of performance.

If he feels he no longer wants it enough, or can no longer access the level he once operated at, he will either have to walk away or recalibrate his focus to simply carrying on at a decent level a la Raikkonen. But Vettel started young; perhaps he was always destined to finish young.

He can also rebuild himself elsewhere. This would be a far more satisfying path both for those of us who were transfixed by his excellence in the Red Bull days and, at times, at Ferrari, and for the man himself.

Vettel took himself out of Red Bull when he was struggling in 2014, with the need for a new challenge part of the motivation on top of his unhappiness at the form of upstart Daniel Ricciardo, so could he do so again?

The mutterings of a return to Red Bull won't go away, and it's plausible he might return to the team where he enjoyed his greatest moments in a bid to recapture past glories. The team hasn't changed that much in the five years he has been away and he maintains good relations with many there. It could offer him what there has always been a feeling Ferrari cannot - the calming environment needed to keep his fiery, emotional side in check.

The fact that it's blunders that have defined the past two seasons, stretching all the way back to the start shunt in the 2017 Singapore Grand Prix, is telling. The red mist must be playing a part in at least some of these errors and Ferrari isn't necessarily the most calming of environments.

At Red Bull, the steady voice of race engineer Guillaume 'Rocky' Rocquelin was always there to guide him. Perhaps a different team culture would help him back to his best. But sometimes getting the band back together is just a doomed attempt to recapture past glories.

So maybe a move to pastures entirely new is needed. It's hard to see him slotting in at a top team other than Red Bull, though, so that would leave him a choice either of a year off in the hope of finding his way back into a good car at a time when his stock is low, or moving to a lesser squad.

What Vettel decides to do will be telling. History says he's a four-time world champion and those successes can never be taken away from him, but he is not performing like one. And hasn't done for the past year.

The most difficult thing for elite athletes to do is come to terms with the fact that their time might be coming to an end. Every empire crumbles and Vettel's might be doing so earlier than he hoped, something made all the more frustrating to him by the fact that Lewis Hamilton is still going strong at 34.

It's sad to watch for those who enjoy seeing great practitioners of their art, but it must be agony for Vettel to experience. Those who have unfairly dismissed the affable, very private Vettel should pause before revelling in his struggles.

He may be living the dream, and have earned millions living a life most can only dream of, but the bad times will hurt him like they will anyone else. He will be as baffled as anyone by the run of errors, and who knows if the old confidence can be recovered.

What is clear is that this cannot go on. Vettel will cling on to the hope that he can still turn things around, and maybe he can. But the Ferrari dream seems to be over, even if it could be another 18 months before Vettel wakes up and realises it.