Why Monaco is a big tyre gamble

"Well, Pirelli tell us the softs are going to be able to do 28 laps this weekend and 23 for the super softs," said Lewis Hamilton at Monaco on Thursday, in such a way that invited a further question. Did he believe that? "No," he laughed. "Not for one moment. Why would you believe engineers!"

After all, an engineer might suggest that a Red Bull is not beatable - and that's not information Lewis is up for hearing. And nor is Fernando Alonso. These two indefatigable competitors very much sense that the unusual demands of Monte Carlo just might be able to level the playing field for them - and the early indications from practice suggest they could be right. The pointers also suggest that the Pirelli engineers might be right about the durability of their tyres - and if that is the case, might we be in for a relatively conventional Monaco Grand Prix, far removed from the crazy, tyre-wear dominated races of late?

Sebastian Vettel managed 17 laps on super softs in practice © LAT

Sebastian Vettel completed a 17-lap run on the super soft and was still able to lap in the high 1m18s at the end of it - a similar pace to that of his early laps. That's way more than many were expecting and the prospect of a crazily mixed-up race from tyres good only for a handful of laps seems to have receded.

It's true that Vettel did have to back off several times during that run in order to cool the tyres, to keep them alive, and that's not something he will have the luxury of during the race, but nonetheless it's a tyre that does look capable of giving sensible stint lengths. Vettel's best time over a short run on the super soft was half-a-second shy of Alonso - who headed the FP2 times with a visibly on-the-limit effort that drew gasps of admiration from even the most hardened observers. The Ferrari is traditionally very good under braking and traction and this in combination with the softest rubber should make it a very usable tool around here.

Similarly, Hamilton was super-early on the throttle through the slow turns, looking to maximise the McLaren's blown diffuser performance and his best lap was just 0.1s shy of Alonso's. Might the Ferrari and McLaren really be able to take the qualifying battle to the Red Bulls for once?

We should always be particularly wary of reading Red Bull's first day practice pace; they almost certainly run in more conservative trim than Ferrari and McLaren, whether through engine mapping for the hot-blown diffuser or fuel load. It was also apparent watching Vettel that he was not visibly close to his and the car's limit in the way of his two key rivals. There wasn't much supporting evidence from Mark Webber's form, his running restricted in FP1 with a gearbox problem and struggling with both set up and KERS into the afternoon. But it just might be that the RB7 is set for its toughest qualifying challenge yet.

Which is potentially very significant. Vettel beat Hamilton last week only because he always had track position over him. Had Hamilton found a way by, he had the pace to have beaten the Red Bull. The MP4-26 has several times looked at least a match for the RB7 on race day - but it's tough to prove that when you start behind. Jenson Button generally backed up Hamilton's pace on both long and short runs and he too is feeling very confident. Yesterday he spoke of how he is gelling with this car: "It is much better for me than last year's. That always had a balance that I didn't like when you pushed to the limit on low fuel. This car hasn't got that; it always feels like a big kart, is pretty easy to balance. I lost out to Lewis by three thousandths of a second in qualifying last time." Asked whether he thought a repeat of his mighty pole performance of 2009 was within reach, he replied: "Yes, I do."

Alonso concentrated on softs for his long runs © LAT

Alonso concentrated largely on the soft (rather than the super soft) for his long runs, making a late stop for a switch to super softs. Felipe Massa adopted the opposite strategy. Alonso's peak pace on the harder tyre was actually comparable with Massa's on the super soft. Some of that was probably Alonso performing to a higher standard - but judging from patterns seen elsewhere it does look as if the gap between the two tyres is not great; maybe 0.6s over a qualifying lap and very little difference over a stint. The strategy game therefore will probably be more straightforward than was expected coming into the weekend.

Nico Rosberg is invariably mighty through these streets and his best FP2 lap was within 0.2s of Alonso's and 0.4s better than Vettel. Such form did not seem to translate in the long runs though, where he was consistently 0.7-0.8s adrift of the Ferrari pace.

We have seen several times - notably last week at Barcelona - that tyre wear is actually higher in the race than it had appeared in practice, the opposite of how it always worked in both the Bridgestone control era and the Michelin/Bridgestone tyre war era. But as things stand we seem to be looking at a mix of two and three-stop strategies according to circumstances. Might a Sauber even try a one? The question is how much of the Red Bull Friday deficit is the normal, and how much is real? We might not necessarily see the usual Red Bull qualifying dominance, and if that's the case then it's very much game on for Sunday.