Why Mercedes' Spanish GP gains aren't as grand as they seemed

Toto Wolff reckoned Mercedes had “halved the disadvantage to the frontrunners” in the Spanish Grand Prix. On initial inspection, it seems an entirely fair assessment. Both drivers came away from their first running aboard the revised W13 - which ran an updated front wing endplate, floor edge, body and rear corner - in Friday practice the happiest they’ve been this season. The porpoising that has shaken their confidence was limited to just a couple of corners. And George Russell would soon complete the Barcelona podium while Lewis Hamilton ended his mighty recovery effort in fifth.

But the validity of Wolff’s claim relies on at what point in 2022 you take the measurement. Yes, Mercedes is far closer to Ferrari and Red Bull than it had been at Imola, arguably its worst weekend of the 2022 campaign. But the pace on offer last weekend is still behind where the Silver Arrows began in Bahrain, the start of its leanest season in modern F1.

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‘Supertimes’ offer a broad outline as to where a team ranks during a grand prix event on raw pace. The fastest lap set during a weekend earns a perfect score of 0.000 and the remaining nine teams earn a percentage over that benchmark. After Mercedes majorly played down its expectations heading into the Bahrain opener, it ran a distant third with a 0.541 deficit to pacesetter Ferrari. It was an underwhelming performance even though the retirements for both Red Bulls saved some face as Russell led Hamilton for a 3-4 finish.

However, its gap to the frontrunners grew significantly from there. In Saudi Arabia, Mercedes was only fourth fastest with a 1.025 supertime. After Australia, the early nadir arrived at Imola, when an improved Alpine and McLaren front left the Silver Arrows as only the fifth-fastest concern with a 1.289 supertime. The tide started to turn in Miami when Russell topped FP2 as Mercedes appeared to get to grips with porpoising only to take backwards step with car set-up as qualifying and the race rolled around. Come the end of play in Spain, Mercedes was back as the third-quickest team and had narrowed its supertime deficit to 0.817.

That marked a significant gain over Imola but is still well adrift of how Mercedes bolted out of the gate at Sakhir. Back to Wolff’s claim then. He is right to declare that the gap to the front is closing. But talk of it ‘halving’ only stands up to scrutiny if compared to Italy and not Bahrain.

This is backed up by the numbers at the chequered flag. Russell crossed the line in Spain nigh on 33s adrift of race winner Max Verstappen. That is better only than the 42.506s chasm that opened up to the defending champion at Imola. Although, the smaller margins in Miami and Bahrain are skewed by the late safety cars that bunched up the field. Prior to the races being neutralised, Russell was fifth and 44s behind in America and Hamilton had been 38s in arrears of victor Charles Leclerc in the Middle East when he snared a podium.

Mercedes' "disadvantage to the front runners"

Let’s now focus on events in Spain specifically to assess whether the Mercedes optimism was wholly justified. Russell reckoned the team had “turned a page”. He continued: “I feel like this is probably the start of our season now… We're six races behind but there's no reason why we can't claw this back.”

George Russell, Mercedes-AMG, , 3rd position, on the Podium, sprays champagme

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Russell finishing over half a minute behind Verstappen doesn’t paint a whole picture, given the Red Bull driver had half-spun at Turn 4 on lap nine of 66 and careered across the gravel to shed a load of time. More than that, Leclerc was 13.5s ahead of Russell - then running second - when his Ferrari engine cut, and he retired. Add the two together and Russell might have been more like 46.5s slower than the winner across the full race distance.

Again, for the sake of simplicity, divide both losing margins by the number of laps at Barcelona to get a rough gauge of race pace. The highest-placed Mercedes, Russell, was on average between 0.5s (Verstappen) and 0.7s (Leclerc) slower per lap than what would have been required to win last Sunday. Given that Russell didn’t make a major mistake to skew the result and significantly contribute to his deficit at the flag, it is unsurprising that the race history chart - which shows every driver’s gap to the leader and lap time - almost perfectly mirrors that 0.5-0.7s window every lap Russell and Verstappen were running the same tyre.

What about Hamilton? The seven-time champion sustained a front-left puncture owing to his first-lap brush with Kevin Magnussen. Hamilton, the only driver to start on mediums, recovered to the pits and resumed on used softs in 19th place and was 54s behind Leclerc and Verstappen. He would cross the finish line with the exact same gap to Verstappen, suggesting he could match the winner’s pace. But the margin to Leclerc had peaked at 1m16s, when the Ferrari driver was in the zone on his newer soft C3 tyres.

It was when Russell hit the front that Hamilton, shod with nine-lap newer mediums, began to close. But his gains were not just on account of exceeding his team-mate’s pace as Hamilton also had the measure of later leader Sergio Perez’s race pace. That earned him the fastest lap for some time before Perez’s late dash on softs. It enabled Hamilton to pass Sainz for fourth and bring the gap to first place below 40s.

However, those advances were undone by the water leak (which Russell also faced) that caused engine temperatures to soar. Hamilton was instructed to lift and coast, making him a sitting duck when a DRS-assisted Sainz sailed back past on the main straight.

The team was right to be jubilant after two incredible displays from two racers who were far happier as the engineers kept porpoising largely under control. Nevertheless, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the gap to the front wasn't slashed in half last weekend

Unreliability aside, Hamilton’s pace was much more on the money than Russell's. But that comes with the caveats that firstly, he was often pounding round in clean air and not featuring at the front or in traffic to boost the health of his lap times. Second, Hamilton has proved over and over that he a master of tyre management. That in a race where the mid-30-degree Celsius heat chewed the rubber rapidly almost certainly helped his cause, so might not be a true read of whether Mercedes has indeed taken several strides forward.

The case against the Silver Arrows having “halved the disadvantage” continues. Put the numbers to one side and what we simply observed on track worked to flatter how Mercedes fared last weekend. Leclerc retiring was one place gained for both drivers, Verstappen’s excursion through the gravel stopped the Dutch racer streaking even further clear. Sainz’s stuttering launch and tail wind-induced spin at Turn 4 handed Russell another position. And for the defence that the Mercedes newcomer delivered so valiantly to keep Verstappen at bay in their protracted battle, it must be considered that his chasing rival was persevering through an intermittent DRS failure. On another day, the RB18 sweeps by much sooner.

George Russell, Mercedes W13, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images

All of this arrived at Barcelona, a track the teams know inside-out thanks to the wealth of data they accrue in testing. In other words, if the W13 was going to be unlocked anywhere, there was a good chance it would be in Spain. At 2.9 miles, it’s also a very short circuit. Russell was already a sizeable 0.643s away from pole in Q3. Around a longer lap, that qualifying deficit would in all probability increase accordingly.

None of this is supposed to count against the drives turned in by Russell and Hamilton in the 2022 Spanish Grand Prix. The team was right to be jubilant after two incredible displays from two racers who were far happier as the engineers kept porpoising largely under control. Nevertheless, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the gap to the front wasn't slashed in half last weekend. At least for the immediate future then, it might be wise to keep tempering those Mercedes expectations.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18 and George Russell, Mercedes W13

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images