Why Mercedes isn't fooled it's ahead of Red Bull despite Austrian GP practice pace

It isn’t that long ago that Lewis Hamilton nearly won the 2021 French Grand Prix.

Although the relentless pace of Formula 1’s latest triple-header means the event at Paul Ricard feels like it was in another lifetime for some, it was only two weeks ago. There, Max Verstappen’s win was a statement victory at what was previously a clear Mercedes stronghold. But the Black Arrows drivers had put him under severe pressure when running the same strategy – and Mercedes might have won had it not been caught out by the undercut power at the first pitstops and then Red Bull seizing the initiative to win on an unexpected two-stopper.

But Verstappen’s victory in last weekend’s Styrian GP was different.

He had won three times in the five races held at the Red Bull Ring before 2021, and Mercedes had had misfortune at its rival’s home track in recent years, but this was “the first race really in eight years where you’re just lacking the pace” – per Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff following Verstappen going 4-3 up versus Hamilton in wins this season.

Verstappen had dominated in qualifying and then crushed his opposition in the race. He followed that up with a pretty serene run to the top spot in opening practice back at the Red Bull Ring on Friday, but Mercedes responded in FP2.

FP2 overall times

Hamilton topped the session on a 1m04.523s, with Valtteri Bottas slotting into second. Verstappen, running nearly in Hamilton’s wake during their matching qualifying simulation efforts in the middle of the day’s second one-hour session, wound up third – 0.217s adrift.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Erik Junius

“From our side we didn’t have a perfect run in FP2,” the championship leader said after FP2. “But, nevertheless, I felt good in the car and there are no real problems. Mercedes looked quite quick on the soft, so we just have to make sure we have a little more pace on that compound.”

Verstappen’s fastest lap featured a heavy kerb-strike between the final corners, where Red Bull has held an edge on Mercedes since last weekend.

Data seen by Autosport suggests that Hamilton and Bottas were both strong in comparison to Verstappen at the opening corner on their respective fastest flying laps, with Hamilton stealing a march on both his rivals at Turns 6 and 7 – and Mercedes putting the difference to Bottas down to Hamilton simply hooking up his lap a little bit better.

But the main difference on overall pace based on what was witnessed on Friday once again apparently centres on Red Bull’s straightline speed.

“The single lap was encouraging in that we were extracting good grip from the tyres, not always something we have managed on the softest Pirelli rubber. But we're under no illusion that Red Bull will have plenty in hand for tomorrow” Andrew Shovlin

Autosport understands that on Verstappen’s fastest lap, he and the Mercedes duo were tracked running in very similar power modes, which is estimated would put the Dutchman 0.2s ahead when both Mercedes and Honda engines are running at their maximum outputs in qualifying.

This estimate roughly equates to the 0.194s advantage Verstappen had at the end of qualifying for the Styrian GP, with Mercedes understood to have not witnessed anything in its data and calculations today that will change the competitive order and the times at the front of the grid massively this time around, despite Pirelli bringing tyre compounds that are a step softer for the repeat event.

In short, it is not getting carried away – as if it ever does – by its headline pace in practice so far at the Austrian GP.

“The single lap was encouraging in that we were extracting good grip from the tyres, not always something we have managed on the softest Pirelli rubber,” said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “But we're under no illusion that Red Bull will have plenty in hand for tomorrow.”

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Instead, Mercedes focused on making improvements to its race pace, after being on average 0.2s slower than Verstappen in the race last weekend. In stint one of that event on the mediums (the hards this time around), he was on 0.174s faster than Hamilton each time by and in stint two on the Styrian hards before Hamilton stopped again he was 0.334s faster.

If it can reduce Red Bull’s advantage to around one tenth a lap in the race, or maybe even forge ahead ever so slightly, Mercedes is confident that it might be able to make a different fist of taking on Red Bull and Verstappen in Sunday’s race.

Regarding its “wacky” set-up from the Styrian GP, per Shovlin, Mercedes worked on Friday to keep those elements that helped over a single lap last weekend, while removing the negative aspects that were not helpful on tyre degradation in the race.

After technical director James Allison’s appearance on the F1 Nation podcast at the start of last week, we now know that set-up approach relates to the roll distribution from the front to the rear of the W12 – and the team is stressing that it wasn’t particularly radical change from what it has previously trialled.

Mercedes also moved to alter Hamilton’s set-up between FP1 and FP2 today, as he evaluated the results of his latest rare in-season simulator session – held back at Brackley on Wednesday. It is understood that while some of the simulator-suggested changes were removed before FP2, some will remain on the world champion’s car heading into the rest of the weekend.

“FP1 was a bit of a struggle, we were trying different set up variations based on our work in the sim this week and the car wasn't happy,” he explained. “In FP2, we reverted to a similar set up as last week, with a few other adjustments, and the car felt much better.

“I probably won't change much now because most often ‘if it ain't broke, don't fix it!’ So just tiny tweaks for me this evening. I still expect Red Bull to be ahead of us, but we'll be trying to make the gap as small as possible tomorrow.”

Medium tyre averages

*N/A Alpine

The long run picture from FP2 points to another closely-fought race, with Mercedes appearing to just have the edge at this stage. The caveat here – and, yes, shockingly, all the usual practice considerations regarding fuel loads and engine modes apply still – is that it did so last weekend too, before getting something of a drubbing in the race.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

But the unusual repeat event format taking place in Austria for a second year in a row – the only such doubling-up scheduled on the 2021 calendar so far – means there is the possibility that things could change based on the work all the teams have done after the first event. Such follow up events also give them a chance to test parts and run programmes they’re otherwise unlikely to have time to do on standard single grand prix Fridays.

Mercedes and Red Bull concentrated on the medium tyres in their long-run data gathering in FP2 (results above) – which were otherwise largely unhindered by the light drizzle that arrived late in the session. Although this did appear to take the best of the track conditions away from Ferrari, when the Scuderia sent its drivers out comparatively late to complete their soft tyre runs. Charles Leclerc said he was struggling for rear grip on the softs in any case but was pleased with his practice race-pace efforts.

The mediums – last weekend’s softs – are set to play a critical role in the Austrian GP weekend. Because it has been suggested that there isn’t a significant delta between the C4 and C5s, it is thought very likely that lots of teams – and not just the typical leading trio of Verstappen, Hamilton and Bottas – will try to get their drivers through to Q3 on the yellow-walled rubber.

If Verstappen and Sergio Perez are running closely on the same medium starting strategy then it makes it harder for Mercedes to go aggressive on pitstop tactics – as was the case in France

If they can, this makes a one-stop race more likely – although the softer compound range for this weekend’s repeat race means the drivers will have to be careful with their rubber to pull it off. If they can’t, or the likely graining problem is much more of an issue than predicted, then a two-stopper will be required.

F1 has recently seen how an aggressive strategy can alter the fortunes at the front of the grid, which is where the pace of all four drivers from the ‘Class A’ squads will be critical.

If Verstappen and Sergio Perez – down in 11th in FP2 and “not feeling fully comfortable with the car on the softer compound” as things “seemed to be quite far away from the balance with the low fuel” – are running closely on the same medium starting strategy, then it makes it harder for Mercedes to go aggressive on pitstop tactics – as was the case in France.

Plus, the Red Bull Ring’s short lap means traffic will always be a problem, and it indeed led to some rather inconsistent long-run times in FP2 (where Perez looked to be particularly impressive, completing what one team insider called an “epic” 24 lap stint on the mediums).

Soft tyre averages

*N/A Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, Alfa Romeo

Behind F1’s leading two teams in the long run averages on Friday came the typically fraught midfield fight.

It’s worth highlighting two particular squads based on today’s running – with the first, Williams, actually in the spotlight because of what it achieved in FP2 and the race last time out.

George Russell, Williams FW43B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

A week ago, George Russell produced a very competitive run on the hards to sit only behind Mercedes and Red Bull in the average order on that compound, and he backed up his practice pace with a solid run in eighth in the race before his engine’s pneumatic pressure dropped, which he explained would have meant “the car would have just switched off” had Williams not attempted to top up the pressure at two pitstops before his retirement.

This time around, in the critical medium averages, Russell again looked very strong in comparison to the midfield to end up ahead of Ferrari and McLaren, plus William’s typical rivals Alfa Romeo and Haas. But he ended the day saying “the pace looked OK, nothing too spectacular”.

Williams is indeed down the order on the soft tyre averages (above) – which bears an interesting link to Russell’s recent Q3 near-misses. He noted that “it is going to be tricky in the race if you are starting on that tyre” as “you might be in a tricky position” on strategy by running the softs in the opening stint.

So, given that prediction and Williams’ place at the foot of the soft tyre averages calculated today, it will be worth checking if the team opts to give it all for a Q3 run with softs in Q2, or mirrors the rest and takes the mediums for the middle part of qualifying. Given the team and Russell are typically not inclined to gamble, even if the best result on the optimal strategy is likely lesser overall (in an incident-free race) than a risk might offer, it would be sensible to suggest that Williams will prioritise the best race strategy on Saturday.

The other team to highlight today is Aston Martin, which recorded a strong run on the softs in the FP2 qualifying simulation efforts to end up behind only Mercedes and Red Bull – which followed Lance Stroll’s pair of spectacular spins in FP1.

The green team also compared very well with AlphaTauri and Ferrari in the long runs in FP2, while McLaren and Alpine are something of unknowns given their practice pace has yo-yoed in recent events, and both had at least one driver record a very strong result last weekend.

“I think we've made progress between FP1 and FP2,” said Aston team boss Otmar Szafnauer. “FP1 was not very smooth, it was a bit erratic. Lance went off twice, Sebastian [Vettel] went off track on his quick run on soft tyres.

“So, we worked on the car balance to get the drivers more comfortable. And then also got the tyres to work and we put some good laps in.”

Making any firm conclusions on the weather for the rest of the weekend seems rather unwise given the constant predictions of rain that never arrived over the Styrian GP weekend.

Lance Stroll, Aston Martin AMR21

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

But it was interesting to hear Verstappen’s engineer Gianpiero Lambiase encouraging him to learn the conditions during the light spots falling late in FP2 – during which Hamilton had a trip through the gravel at the exit of the Turn 4, long, downhill right-hander – as this could happen again on race day. Sunday is also expected to be cooler than on Saturday, as was the case today.

Looking further ahead as a place to finish concerns the prototype mediums the teams sampled on Friday (each driver had to complete 12 timed laps across FP1 and FP2).

The reinforced tyres, with the changes applying on the rears only, are understood to have behaved largely similar to the regular mediums, which will likely herald their introduction on all compounds at the British GP. There, Friday night is going to be all about qualifying for qualifying and the race ahead of the race.

Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri AT02, Roy Nissany, Development Driver, Williams FW43B, and Lance Stroll, Aston Martin AMR21, practice their start procedures at the end of FP1

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images