Why Mercedes' Abu Dhabi advantage might be an illusion

Mercedes had a big advantage on the timesheets after the first day of free practice for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but an edge of just under four tenths might prove to be an illusion.

While Valtteri Bottas set the pace, he is using a brand new power unit after suffering a failure at the Brazilian Grand Prix. This means two things: first that the quicker Mercedes driver on Friday will start at the back, whatever happens. But there's a second and more significant factor.

Much of the rest of the field is using tired engine packages, or running conservatively with aged ones they need to get one more race out of, so we perhaps shouldn't get too excited about the performance difference.

Given Bottas's advantage over Hamilton was all built up over the straight-heavy first and second sectors (their best times were separated by just 0.018 seconds in the long and twisty final sector) it's perhaps more logical to use the second-fastest time as the reference.

That still puts Mercedes ahead, but by a reduced margin - with Ferrari's Charles Leclerc just 0.076s slower and Max Verstappen 0.165s down. It's still an advantage for the Silver Arrows, but not quite as emphatic as the timesheets might suggest.

Overall single-lap pace

1 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m36.256s
2 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m36.642s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m36.807s
4 Haas (Grosjean), 1m37.601s
5 Racing Point (Perez), 1m37.637s
6 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m37.651s
7 McLaren (Sainz), 1m37.834s
8 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m38.122s
9 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m38.415s
10 Williams (Russell), 1m39.512s

But it's no surprise this circuit looks strong for Mercedes. The final sector is custom-made for a car that's strong in the slower corners, and during the V6 hybrid turbo era this has always been its territory. The question is whether it's advantage can be as big as the Friday timing screens suggested.

As ever, in the midfield it's ultra-tight, with Romain Grosjean leading the way for Haas - but with Racing Point and Toro Rosso both within half a tenth, and McLaren and Renault a little back from what's expected. The season could end with a typically tight fight in this part of the midfield.

On long-run pace, it's no surprise to see Mercedes still ahead and hints that Red Bull might be its closest challenger. A red flag in FP2, caused by the needless clash between Bottas and Grosjean, interrupted some of the runs and means the long-run data is a little messy, but it points to a relatively tight spread across the leading drivers.

If Hamilton does secure pole, it could be very difficult for the rest. But the man himself wasn't especially comfortable, saying he struggled to find a rhythm, so there's more to come from the car

The top teams focused on soft running, save for Bottas who will start at the back and has no motivation to advance from Q2, and therefore should have free tyre choice. He's unlikely to start on the softs, therefore rendering it pointless to use them.

What Bottas's medium-shod run did do is allow a comparison of pace on starting fuel, lapping a quarter of a second per lap slower than Hamilton's soft run. But what is far more interesting is the comparison of the soft runs - even though they are of varying lengths once you eliminate the anomalous laps and red flag interruption.

Long-run pace

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m43.061s (6 laps)
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m43.156s (4 laps)
3 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m43.280s (8 laps)
4 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m43.761s (5 laps)
5 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m44.095s (9 laps)
6 McLaren (Sainz), 1m44.371s (13 laps)
7 Racing Point (Perez), 1m44.640s (9 laps)
8 Haas (Magnussen), 1m44.815s (9 laps)
9 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m44.948s (5 laps)

Williams did not complete a long run on softs

The midfield picture is extremely murky thanks to the messy runs - and it seems fair to conclude Alfa Romeo is not fastest of that group and Toro Rosso is not slowest. With Haas driver Grosjean suffering damage in his clash with Bottas and his run being ruined, Magnussen's long run is used as this is closer to the spec of Haas that Grosjean will now have to use thanks to the impact to his floor.

If Hamilton is able to secure pole position, this could make it very difficult for the rest on race day. But the man himself wasn't especially comfortable, claiming that he was struggling to get into a rhythm, so there is more to come from the car.

"I'm definitely hoping to unlock something, utilising a couple of different tools I haven't touched during the year because it never really worked before," said Hamilton. "But I'm trying to see if I can get it to work.

"It's a pre-emptive thought process for next year. Even though next year's car is going to be different, there still might be things I might be able to apply. I am having to take everything with a pinch of salt at the moment."

Technical director James Allison described the car as "fast and very effective" on the long runs, so given previous form we can assume that if Hamilton leads he will be extremely difficult to pass.

The car that's most likely to beat him in qualifying trim, and might be closest on race pace, however, are different.

Ferrari showed reasonable pace over a single lap, although both drivers hit the wall at Turn 19 during the course of Friday - perhaps symptomatic of how hard the tyres were working on the Ferrari in the twisty closing stages of the lap.

But, whatever the case, this is not the ideal circuit for Ferrari to stretch its legs despite the straights of the first two sectors.

"We are pretty much fighting the same thing as the last couple of races," said Vettel. "These medium, low-speed type of corners, we are lacking speed compared to the others.

"Sector three is where it really hurts us, we struggle with the tyres getting hot and the car being quite difficult to drive. We are trying our best to have a solid weekend, I think we can improve the set-up."

So the stage appears to be set for Mercedes and Hamilton to sign off their triumphant seasons with a valedictory victory.

But with just one silver machine up front, and four drivers behind waiting to capitalise on any wobble from a driver who wasn't entirely happy with his Friday progress, there's still all to race for in F1 2019 part 21.