Why it's payback time for F1 2018's big injustice

Valtteri Bottas has something to prove. He is the only driver among Formula 1's trio of grandee teams not to have won a race in 2018, and it's almost a year since he stood on the top of the podium.

After failing to convert pole position to victory at Interlagos last year, and with the chance to clinch the constructors' championship for Mercedes, this is a race he must surely be determined to win.

That Bottas hasn't won even once is the great injustice of this season. He could have won the Bahrain Grand Prix had Mercedes realised Ferrari was striking out for a one-stop strategy with Sebastian Vettel more quickly.

He should have won in China after executing the perfect undercut on Vettel only for the safety car to allow Daniel Ricciardo to charge through to win on fresh boots. He definitely would have won in Russia, but for having to play the team game and help out Lewis Hamilton.

This is why it should be payback time for Bottas. But he isn't going to stand around demanding a handout from the till and he won't want Hamilton to chuck a cast-off victory in his direction.

What is clear to Bottas is that the way is clear for him to win if he delivers, with no risk of having to play the drivers' championship game. The timesheets in Friday practice set things up nicely, although a time advantage of 0.003 seconds over Hamilton is, in itself, meaningless. What it does prove is Bottas is not lagging behind Hamilton.

The differences were tiny, with Bottas 0.067s faster in the twisty middle sector and Hamilton pulling back most, but not all, of that in the first and last sector, but at least he's in the ballpark.

"I don't think he needs me to give him a win anyway, he can do it himself" Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton was asked heading into the weekend if Mercedes was going to give a victory to Bottas. He was adamant the team wouldn't do so. The bottom line is that whatever happens, Bottas's best chance of a win is to earn it, and that's clearly what Hamilton would rather happen.

An undeserved Bottas victory would be every bit as uncomfortable as what happened out of necessity in the Russian GP. "The team are not going to make that call," said Hamilton. "If I'm in the position...it's not something I've asked Valtteri, if he'd want that, but I don't think he's going to want that. He's going to want to win in his own way.

"I don't know if I'd be doing him many favours in the sense of giving him a win, I don't think he needs that anyway, he can do it himself. So, all I can do is try to make sure I'm supportive throughout the process, throughout the weekend. I'm always really open with my set-up, so I'll continue to do so."

Hamilton has never won a race in the remains of the season after clinching the world championship early, a statistic that is admittedly based on a relatively small sample set of five races across 2015 and '17.

There is no obstacle preventing Bottas triumphing on merit, and knowing there's no chance of having to play the team game means he can be certain the chance is there, which brings its own kind of pressure.

"Coming here knowing there is a possibility to win a race is obviously a good feeling," said Bottas. "So you all know my goal will be for this weekend but that will be up to me, and I need to perform to be able to fight for the win."

But while Mercedes was fastest during Friday practice, Ferrari is clearly a serious threat. Vettel was just 0.073s slower, hardly enough of a gap for Mercedes to be comfortable. So, too, could Kimi Raikkonen. And Red Bull can't be discounted, even if the benefits of racing at altitude at Mexico City are cut by two thirds at Interlagos - just 800 metres above sea level.

Single-lap pace

1 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m08.846s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m08.919s
3 Red Bull (Ricciardo), 1m09.164s
4 Haas (Grosjean), 1m09.796s
5 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m09.943s
6 Force India (Ocon), 1m10.159s
7 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m10.330s
8 McLaren (Alonso), 1m10.332s
9 Renault (Sainz), 1m10.458s
10 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m10.569s

On long run pace, things look very tight with Ferrari and Red Bull actually topping the charts based on supersoft speed. With degradation and wear not posing a major problem - bar a little blistering on high fuel loads - on Friday, the below is over a variety of run lengths ranging from seven to 17 laps, but represents a reasonable picture of the relative pace.

The Mercedes lack of pace relative to the top two is perhaps a concern, while Hamilton was also slower than Vettel on their comparable soft-shod runs. As usual, there is the question here of how heavy a heavy fuel load, but what this hints at is that even if Mercedes does have the single-lap pace to get on the front row, things could be hard work in the race.

Long-run pace

1 Ferrari (Raikkonen), 1m12.985s
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m12.987s
3 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m13.373s
4 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m13.745s
5 Force India (Ocon), 1m13.948s
6 McLaren (Alonso), 1m14.034s
7 Haas (Magnussen), 1m14.188s
8 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m14.595s
9 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m14.708s

It's also important to bear in mind Mercedes is still working on understanding the tyre troubles that made life difficult in Mexico, which was a different problem to the rear blistering it encountered in America a week earlier.

This could mean that pace was of secondary importance to understanding the demands of the tyres over a race stint. Friday is, after all, a test day. But Bottas was relatively content with how the session went, particularly after struggles during the morning session.

"The morning was quite difficult, it was easy to make mistakes, so many lock ups and aborted laps," said Bottas. "But second practice we really improved the car, found the rhythm and the pace seemed to be good.

"Today there was not that much tyre drop off but we were expecting warmer temperatures. We will see if that's going to bring some issues with blistering. But it's going to be the same temperature for everyone on Saturday and Sunday.

"It is [very close]. We can't be feeling satisfied going to the hotel tonight because everyone is going to be working."

Bottas has definitely learned from what happened last year when Vettel jumped him

With Vettel saying "the car doesn't feel good" and Raikkonen saying he was "not happy" with a "quite tricky" car, it's clear Ferrari has more progress to make. Verstappen, meanwhile, was pleasantly surprised by the pace of his Red Bull but ruled out having a shot at the front row.

Interlagos is a short, sharp circuit where tiny differences and minute errors can make all the difference. Speaking on Thursday, Alonso boiled the track down to just six corners where you can make time - Turns 1, 4, 6, 8, 9 and 14.

The latter is the Juncao left-hander that leads onto the long drag back to the first corner, where Nico Hulkenberg crashed in second practice. This means qualifying is very likely to be decided by hundredths rather than tenths of a second, with Mercedes quicker over a single lap but looking under genuine threat from Ferrari.

As for race pace, Friday is never anything more than an indicator of where cars stand on pace based on a snapshot of where the teams are while preparing for the business end of the weekend.

So if Bottas can beat Hamilton, the Ferraris and the Red Bulls to pole position, the key moment of the race will be the start. And he's definitely learned from what happened last year when Vettel jumped him into Turn 1.

"Last year, Seb did have a better start, but the way to go is to close the inside as quickly as you can," Bottas said. "But we still have work to do before the qualifying. Then nothing is really decided in qualifying, and the weather here can be quite mixed so that can make things pretty interesting."

Objective one for Bottas is to get himself into a position to right that wrong. But despite being fastest on Friday, he and the Mercedes team still have a long way to go - with the threat or rain or higher temperatures to change things on Saturday and Sunday. What Bottas needs to do is to be at his absolute best.

He has the motive and opportunity to correct that - and today suggested with some solid overnight work the Mercedes could give him the means even if things do look tight.

If Bottas does win, he's going to want to ensure it's down to what he does on track, but not any possible charity from his team-mate. And he's perfectly capable of doing just that.