Why Hamilton is on the back foot in Germany

"I have a good feeling, a very good feeling," said Nico Rosberg on Thursday.

To watch him on track today, that might also be characterised as a before-the-fact description of how he felt behind the wheel during free practice, which given Lewis Hamilton seems to be firmly on the back foot with problems of his own could have big implications for the championship.

Of course, it's only Friday practice and there have been plenty of occasions when one or the other Mercedes driver looked to be behind and took a leap. Certainly, Hamilton is more than capable of turning things around and there's every possibility of things changing tomorrow.

But what really made Rosberg's form imposing, and makes him a convincing pre-race favourite in the eyes of many, is just how good he looked on track during the session.

Combined with the the laptimes - four-tenths faster than Hamilton on single-lap pace during Friday afternoon practice on the super-softs and then around three tenths per lap faster on a comparable longer run, and, judging by the pace on the long run on soft tyres, a clear advantage there as well - it's clear Rosberg has the means, motive and the opportunity to strike back after watching his points lead get whittled away to less than nothing in recent times.

When Rosberg is happy, you can usually see it in the 'body language' of the car. From the first quick lap in the morning, he was at one with it. There were none of the provocations, the overworking of the wheel that Rosberg sometimes resorts to when trying to force the issue.

Hamilton, by contrast, was a little more ragged - not massively, not driving badly, just not quite at his best. And that, if anything, is the best news for Rosberg, because there's a feeling that, if both are at their absolute best, Hamilton's is just that tiny bit better.

"Nico has been driving just as well as he has all year," said Hamilton when asked about the swing in form in his favour, winning five of the last six races.

"It's just I haven't had any problems with the car in the last six races - apart from one - but otherwise I'm driving exactly the same as I had in the previous part of the year. It's just I've not had a gearbox failure or engine failures."

It's clear Hamilton agrees that, when he's driving well and external problems don't intervene, he has the measure of Rosberg. The past two-and-a-half years support that.

But on home soil (Rosberg refers to this as a second home grand prix in a non-holiday home sense), it seems Hamilton isn't quite there and Rosberg is on it.

Hamilton talked on Thursday about this race hopefully completing a positive wave that has propelled him into the lead of the championship. But it's very clear that he and his side of the garage have some work to do despite what he described as a "chilled day" if they are to avoid going into the August break behind on points.

With engine penalties surely to come in the races after the break, that all adds up to a pretty high-pressure, high-stakes weekend for both.

Certainly there's no reason to suspect the non-Mercedes part of the field will be a serious threat in the race, if all pans out as planned, either on single-lap pace or long-run pace.

The start could change that, although overtaking on the run to the Turn 6 hairpin even without DRS assistance is pretty straightforward, so the opening seconds of the race will be as critical as ever.

Should the two Silver Arrows get away up front together, assuming they lock out the front row, then it is most likely to be a private battle. Should they be split, whoever leads could have it made.

"I have had one really good start," said Hamilton when it was suggested he was on top of starts at last. "We've improved, we're working on it but nothing has really changed and we're working as hard as we can. There are going to be races where it's like before and some like the last race. I hope more like the last race."

With every race driver setting their best lap of Friday practice using super-soft rubber in the afternoon session, it's clear Mercedes has a decisive advantage, given this is a track where the laptime gaps aren't usually that big in time terms, given the sub-80 second pace.

SINGLE-LAP PACE BY TEAM
1. Mercedes (Rosberg), 1m15.614s
2. Ferrari (Vettel), +0.394s
3. Red Bull (Verstappen), +0.842s
4. Force India (Hulkenberg), +1.167s
5. McLaren (Button), +1.473s
6. Toro Rosso (Sainz), +1.728s
7. Williams (Bottas), +1.811s
8. Haas (Grosjean), +1.988s
9. Renault (Magnussen), +2.442s
10. Sauber (Ericsson), +2.516s
11. Manor (Wehrlein), +2.579s

The closeness of the spread of the field in terms of laptime does have clear implications for qualifying. When Sebastian Vettel did a long run on softs (and it's not unusual for Ferrari to split its long run strategies) some suggested it meant he could attempt to get through Q2 with a time set on softs and start on the slower tyre.

Unfortunately, that is very unlikely to work given the average difference in laptime. According to Pirelli, between the soft and the super-softs on Friday was a massive 1.6 seconds. That means, the frontrunners will surely all be starting on the super-softs they need to escape Q2.

And based on the longer runs we saw, starting on super-softs means Mercedes retains its clear advantage.

The laptimes below are drawn from those on super-softs completed after a lighter qualifying simulation lap, using six laps as a sample with erroneous slow laps eliminated.

LONG-RUN AVERAGE LAPTIME
1. Mercedes (Rosberg), 1m20.108s
2. Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m20.511s
3. Williams (Bottas), 1m21.006s
4. Force India (Perez), 1m21.297s
5. Ferrari (Raikkonen), 1m21.402s
6. McLaren (Button), 1m21.518s
7. Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m21.578s
8. Renault (Magnussen), 1m22.148s
9. Haas (Gutierrez), 1m22.386s
10. Manor (Haryanto), 1m22.667s
11. Sauber (Ericsson), 1m23.482s

With the caveat that Vettel might well have completed a quicker long run on super-softs than Raikkonen did, that looks to be a very congested midfield.

Vettel's long-run pace on the softs was decent enough, but relative to Mercedes it was unremarkable even though the range was positive. So there's more reason to expect Ferrari to be looking over its shoulder at the giant midfield pack than bothering the Mercedes drivers.

Williams, notably, looks far stronger on race pace. That backs up Valtteri Bottas's confidence that things are looking much better for the team here than they were at the Hungaroring last weekend.

There's also every possibility of the midfield group spending much of its time tripping over itself - to the point where there could be some very close battles raging.

Strategically, Pirelli suggests a choice between a two-stopper (super-soft/super-soft/soft) or an aggressive three-stopper involving spending as much time as possible on the super-softs.

As for the medium, of which only Force India has brought more than one set for each of its drivers (both Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez have three) and many binned off during practice one, it seems to have little purpose.

Pirelli opted, for the first time this season, to add a harder compound option rather than the ultra-soft. In the absence of decisive data, it suggests the gap from soft to medium is also 1.6s on pace, so effectively this is going to be a straightforward two-compound race with anyone trying to cut out a stop using the medium potentially taking a very big risk.

So with a Mercedes two-horse race most likely, and Rosberg holding all of the aces after Friday, there's every chance Hamilton will go into the August break just behind in the championship.

He'll get a fresh hand on Saturday and might well end up with a better one to reverse that, but on current form it seems he hasn't got the cards needed to beat Rosberg.

Not that it will worry Hamilton too much. Going into the August break just one point behind Rosberg would have been a great outcome from where he was after the early races of the season.

"I don't think it's really that important," said Hamilton of the significance of holding the lead into the break.

"Entering the summer break not 43 points behind is important, but it doesn't really make [much difference].

"I want to win this weekend just as much as I wanted to win last weekend - if anything I want to win even more this weekend than last weekend, because last weekend was a pretty bad one in general performance and I want to improve on it.

"I'm still chasing, I've got less engines so I still see Nico as ahead of me, so I'm still behind...but very close."

And that is what Rosberg needs to be careful of. Hamilton isn't too far behind in Germany to turn it around, but even if he plays his hand to perfection and does carry his Friday promise into a Sunday victory, in the overall war the pendulum will still have swung towards Hamilton heading into the break.