Why F1's 2027 'silly season' has been so static

In this year’s July edition of Autosport magazine, there was a column that spoke of a potentially seismic silly season in the land of F1. “There are surely some surprises to be had” was one choice quote, in an incredibly hubristic lack of foresight. “Santa Claus might bring a genuine, bona fide silly season this year” read another. Who wrote this piece of utterly mawkish tripe?

Oh, right, that was me. Apologies. Not my finest hour. (‘When have you ever had a finest hour?’, many of you might suggest. That would also be fair.) 

Here’s how it’s gone down. Max Verstappen’s apparent dissatisfaction with his lot in 2026 was billed as the cornerstone of the market, the Dutchman depicted as a wantaway star flirting with either a potentially gigantic switch to McLaren, or with a pair of fluffy slippers-slash-further experimentation in GT and endurance racing.  

Instead, he’s come away with an even longer-term deal with Red Bull, albeit one that’s probably far more lucrative than his current contract. Crucially for Verstappen’s motivation, the new deal features more opportunities to chart motorsport’s waters beyond F1. Those keen on seeing him emerge at the Nurburgring 24 Hours once again, or potentially in other big-ticket enduros, may well get their wish. 

Elsewhere, Williams has announced a state of ‘no change’ as Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz will stay at the team for 2027 and presumably beyond, Franco Colapinto has earned an extension of his Alpine deal, and Lando Norris has followed Verstappen in tying himself up to his current employer until at least the end of 2030.  

So, what’s left? Red Bull has its remaining drivers to sort out, although all three of its current incumbents across the Red Bull and Racing Bulls squads have been impressive this year. It will be difficult for to find a space for F2 championship leader Nikola Tsolov, and Bulgaria’s hope of having a first F1 driver might have to play a reserve role and wait until 2028. Isack Hadjar will probably be kept on at Red Bull, and both Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad have earned their keep for another year at Racing Bulls. 

Audi will probably retain Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto, Cadillac’s duo of Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas appear to have deals that run into next year, so this realistically leaves Aston Martin and Haas as remaining uncertainties in the ‘27 driver market. 

Verstappen had the potential to shake up the market - but he's since extended his Red Bull contract

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

But here’s the thing: you could also make a case for those line-ups staying the same. At Aston Martin, Fernando Alonso stated in July that the direction of the 2027 regulation changes would be a key factor in his decision, while Lance Stroll’s presence at the team is likely eternal. At Haas, Ollie Bearman is a shoo-in for a ‘27 drive as he awaits a seat to open at Ferrari, and Esteban Ocon’s form has picked up of late, albeit unhelpfully while the VF-26 has fallen off a development cliff.  

Ocon’s seat does seem to be the most at risk and Haas is assessing other prospects in TPC outings, namely Leonardo Fornaroli, Rafael Camara, and current reserve Ryo Hirakawa. Team principal Ayao Komatsu has said there’s “no rush” on a decision, demonstrating that the team is very much sequestered from the rest of the driver market...or at least, what little remains of it.  

Granted, none of this is particularly new, but why is this year’s market so static? 

There’s a few reasons, and it’s worth looking at the last time this happened between 2023 and 2024. In that scenario, there were no changes between the end of the 2023 season and the start of the next one, although Daniel Ricciardo had ended up returning to the grid mid-2023 in lieu of Nyck de Vries. 

Even though free testing no longer exists, making it very difficult for younger drivers to get track time in current machinery, they’ve arguably never been more prepared

The public perception (well, one driven by certain sections of the media) was this: that teams were a little bit wary of running with less experienced drivers in the ground-effect cars. Ollie Bearman’s star turn as a late substitute for Carlos Sainz for Ferrari in 2024’s Saudi Arabian Grand Prix appeared to change some minds, as he got up to speed incredibly quickly and ended up finishing seventh at a very fiddly circuit.  

But I don’t think that’s the whole truth. Even though free testing no longer exists, making it very difficult for younger drivers to get track time in current machinery, they’ve arguably never been more prepared. Junior programmes educate drivers from a very young age to the point where they step into F1 fully ingratiated in the ways of working with engineers. Simulator running and testing of previous cars also offers opportunity, and the mandatory FP1 openings for rookie drivers can offer a platform for someone to stake their claim as a future F1 driver. 

Those purported fears of young drivers then were apocryphal at best, and don’t necessarily stack when Oscar Piastri had been new to the party in 2023 at Ricciardo's expense. One of the arguments at the time was perhaps seen at Haas, when Mick Schumacher was replaced by Nico Hulkenberg. I recall this getting a lot of push-back, but let’s call it for what it was: a straight upgrade on a driver who had been significantly outperformed by Kevin Magnussen over 2022. It wasn’t a lack of faith in young drivers as a monolith, but just that particular one. 

Bortoleto and Antonelli were among those forming large rookie contingent last year

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Let’s also not forget that the 2025 driver market featured a big handful of incoming racers, as Bortoleto, Hadjar, and Kimi Antonelli were among those blooded for the first time, so this “fear” of new drivers isn’t the case this time around either.  

The root causes to static driver markets are varied. One is driver longevity; for a long time, 40-years-old was seen as the absolute use-by date for a driver, and anyone approaching their mid-thirties might as well have invested in a Stannah stairlift and a night-light for the toilet. Today, we’ve got drivers at 45, 41, and 39, still motivated and still doing the business on-track. 

Advances in sports science and fitness have allowed the biggest stars to continue to shine despite approaching what many would consider to be the twilight of their careers - although Alonso has some way to go to match Kazuyoshi Miura, the world’s oldest professional footballer (who is still plying his trade at 59 years of age in Japan’s third division). Footballing royalty Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi played in this year’s World Cup at 41 and 39 respectively, although Ronaldo is a much less mobile force these days... 

The other reason lies in a similar vein, in that rookie drivers are (generally) given much more time by their teams. Former Toro Rosso/AlphaTauri boss Franz Tost once stated, perhaps contrary to Red Bull’s approach to young drivers, that a new driver needs at least three years to demonstrate their true qualities in F1. Drivers are less likely to be seen as plug-and-play components today, and teams like to retain some degree of stability to ensure they can bring the best out of a driver over the course of their nascent years in the championship. 

Now, Jack Doohan might disagree with all of that, after being turfed out of Alpine after just seven races. But it was abundantly clear that Flavio Briatore wanted Colapinto in the car, and his faith in the Argentine does feel like it’s starting to reach a pay-off. 

But this is a result of teams being more selective with their driver choices. Young driver programmes are now the generally accepted pathways into F1, and the hopefuls that embark upon them are regularly assessed within to understand their profile. Teams have years’ worth of data on their younger prospects, and thus already have some idea of how they would be expected to perform on reaching F1.  

Colapinto has been given time by Alpine to keep improving - his predecessor Doohan was not

Photo by: Alpine

Success in the junior categories is almost secondary to this; if a driver doesn’t get on with the Formula 2 car for whatever reason, or if they’ve been signed by a team that generally doesn’t have much success in the category, that’s fine. Neither Antonelli nor Bearman had a particularly strong F2 campaign in 2024, but this was not to the detriment of either driver. It’s probably irritating for those who do win the championship and don’t make the step up (Messrs Pourchaire and Drugovich may concur here), but the system isn’t always fair. 

Although Camara and Tsolov have been linked with seats for 2027, it’s also fair to say that sometimes, the junior categories might simply have a few seasons where there’s not a lot of genuine next-level stars breaking through. Look at the 2024 season, for instance; Bortoleto won in a field containing Hadjar, Antonelli, Bearman, Colapinto, Alpine reserve Paul Aron, and IndyCar’s Dennis Hauger. This year’s field doesn’t quite have the same strength in depth. You can only beat the field that’s in front of you, granted, but there’s a bit of a gulf between the top three (including Gabriele Mini) and the remainder of the field...and even then, they’re occasionally being beaten by some of the F2 lifers. 

The financial stability of F1 teams today has admittedly cost some of the fun of the rotate-a-driver seats we used to get in the lesser funded outfits, unashamedly chasing those with the fattest wallets to keep the lights on in the factory. It ensures the field is a lot more professional, granted, but one does miss the prospect of a Jean-Denis Deletraz or Giovanni Lavaggi rocking up with a big cheque and vibes alone... 

There will come a time where the older drivers (and those who haven’t shown a great deal so far) will vacate their seats and allow space for the next generation

And, as mentioned, let’s not forget that we’d had a bit of a freshen-up on the F1 grid at the start of 2025. It would be nice if there were more opportunities for incoming talents but, at the end of the day, if a driver’s good enough for F1 then they’ll probably get there. It’s all about what the teams need; most fans were probably underwhelmed by Cadillac’s decision to go for two vastly experienced drivers over, say, Colton Herta - but a new team doesn’t need the added complexity of getting a rookie up to speed while it tries to bed itself into F1.

But the bottom line is this: everyone is generally performing well, so why change? None of the drivers in 2026 have had particularly poor seasons from a performance point of view, and even those who have experienced out-of-form moments have been able to find a way out of the hole.

These reasons might make for drab and predictable driver market phases, but there will come a time where the older drivers (and those who haven’t shown a great deal so far) will vacate their seats and allow space for the next generation. But as it stands, it won’t be for 2027.

The F1 driver market remains static for 2027

Photo by: Eric Le Galliot