Why F1's 2019 tech changes can't succeed

Remember when you partied and it was 1999? As the clocks ticked inexorably towards midnight, so too imminent doom approached in the form of the so-called Millennium Bug. Who knew what catastrophes would ensue as the new century began and computers all over the world went into meltdown, unable to cope with a quadruple-digit date change?

In the event, no nuclear reactors went critical, planes remained in the sky, supermarket doors opened on time, and humanity rubbed its collective head and got on with the traditional January 1 business of clearing out the empties, setting resolutions, and praying for a decent James Bond film in the afternoon. In the public consciousness, the abortive apocalypse was filed away as a pointless (if highly lucrative) beano for the IT industry. Nothing more to see here.

But absence of evidence doesn't equate to evidence of absence. The threat was real, and it took months (and in some cases years) of detailed toil and planning as well as huge investment to achieve the net result - so far as the general public was concerned - of no noticeable change.

Something very similar may be about to happen in Formula 1.

The mild but extensive - and expensive - tweaks to the aerodynamic regulations this season are supposed to be the first steps towards a completely new set of technical rules in 2021, the full shape of which is yet to be defined. Reducing the outwash effect of the front wings could facilitate more overtaking opportunities, by allowing cars to run closer to one another in the corners, but equally they may not.

Even before a single new car turned a wheel in racing anger, the naysayers have been laying the groundwork to say I-told-you-so come the first race. And you can understand why they might feel this way.

While the post-2020 ruleset will be the most rigorously researched and scientifically evaluated formula ever - as opposed to the days when changes were dictated because the likes of Bernie Ecclestone or Max Mosley disembarked from the wrong side of bed - the '19 amendments have been pushed through with almost unseemly haste. It seems that the current FIA president was left nonplussed by the lack of overtaking during last year's Australian Grand Prix, and in a bid to avoid nodding off he began to place phone calls demanding that something be done to solve the problem.

Knee-jerk reactions? Perhaps he should join Twitter - oh, he already has...

Formula 1 itself is undertaking a huge research effort to ensure the 2021 rules balance manufacturer-friendly, road-relevant tech with fan-pleasing spectacle. The programme involves time-served technical staff drawn from within the sport, consultations with teams and advanced computer simulations, all with a remit to avoid the kind of unintended consequences that have dogged previous rule changes.

The commercial rights holder was not, we understand, best pleased when it learned that the FIA wanted to fast-track at least part of the process (especially since Albert Park, the scene of the race that drew the president's ire, is an unrepresentative track on which it's always been hard to overtake). Nobody loves a back-seat driver.

In the more cooperative spirit of the post-Bernie age, though, F1 played nicely and kept its counsel. Most of the teams not only signed up to the idea, they answered the call to lend design resource to the project, and since last summer have been obligingly positive.

The only dissenting voices among the other stakeholders have come from the usual suspects, such as Red Bull team principal Christian Horner. He said as early as last May that the 2019 concept was based on "immature research" and that its claimed overtaking benefits were unproved.

Another Red Bull figure who seldom shies away from an opportunity to bark opinions into a microphone is its 'driver advisor' Helmut Marko. He claimed recently that the team has spent €15million complying with the new regulations - and that the new car was already up to mid-2018 performance levels by then. The past fortnight's testing times quickly showed that the 2019 machines would indeed outpace last season's.

So, while the new rules have had plenty of brainpower and creativity directed at them, led by ex-Ferrari designer Nikolas Tombazis, the benefits are still theoretical. Chiefly that's because while several teams did respond to the FIA's invitation to consult on the changes, facilitating overtaking barely figures on their list of priorities.

Every team, from high-rolling Mercedes through to the more moderately funded tail-enders, faces strict limits on the resources they can direct to aerodynamic research. Not one of them will have wasted a second of that precious time and energy on means of improving overtaking. They will have been utterly focused on making their cars go faster, especially since the new rules have torn up the established means of optimising airflow from the front wing over and around the rest of the car.

While rule changes often provide an opening for innovation and the possibility of shaking up the order, in all likelihood the established frontrunners will remain as they are. But even if the net result is little or no tangible change, perhaps that's not such a bad thing - aside from the expense involved.

"If we hadn't done anything, the 2019 cars would have been even harder to follow than the '18 cars were," says F1's chief technical officer Pat Symonds, who is heading up the conceptual research for '21.

"So what we've done is pegged it back a bit. Don't expect a transformational change, but believe me it would have got worse - what we've done is at least maintained the status quo and, I suspect, even improved things a little bit."

What indications we have so far, drawn from anecdotal evidence in testing, are inconclusive. Racing Point's Sergio Perez said that he tucked in behind the Mercedes of Valtteri Bottas at one point, and "certainly you feel that you lose less downforce".

Perez also pointed out that the larger rear wings have made the DRS effect more powerful: "I think the delta to overtake a car should be reduced by quite a bit given you can follow more, and the advantage from the DRS. So, I hope the racing can be a lot more fun for the fans and for the drivers."

Others have been less enthusiastic. During the first test, Renault's Daniel Ricciardo was positive about the effect of the new rules. But testing isn't racing; there's no guarantee the cars you encounter are running like-for-like programmes. Different fuel loads, tyre compounds and run lengths can all skew the picture.

"It got close actually one time, but I think his tyres were dead," Ricciardo said after a stint in which he encountered Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari. "I've been able to follow some cars but I also feel like we've been faster, whether we've been lower fuel or they've been doing a race sim.

"So I've caught them quicker and it is not always that representative. I think it [following and overtaking] will be a little bit better, but I'm not going to say it's going to be a massive difference. A track like this is always going to be hard to overtake on.

"The front wings are for sure more basic but everyone is smart to figure out ways to disturb everyone else, so I don't want to be naive and think that it's going to change everything. I don't want you guys to think that either."

Have all those millions really been wasted if you can't actually see a result? Some might say they have; after all, the belief that the Millennium Bug was not only a myth, but perhaps also an elaborate con trick, remains deeply entrenched within the public consciousness. Note how often it's cited by those seeking to play down the possible consequences of a no-deal Brexit, for instance.

That F1's teams have spent the past few months scrambling to nullify the effects of a rule change they publicly subscribed to should come as no surprise. But we should at least wait, for the sake of rigour, to pass judgement until after F1 reaches an overtaking-friendly circuit.

Charming though Melbourne is, Albert Park has never been endowed with areas that make for great overtaking opportunities, regardless of how closely cars can follow one another. Chances are this year's Australian Grand Prix will unfold much as any other, with the utterly predictable consequence of the armchair experts gleefully proclaiming the new rules a failure.

Perhaps, at that moment, we should pause to consider where knee-jerk reactions lead us...