Why Bottas was always doomed to lose to Hamilton

After qualifying second for the British Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton revealed that he chases an imaginary rival while leading a race to maintain his focus. The next day, a very real rival appeared to have been rendered a non-entity by the unfortunate timing of the safety car to ease his path to a record sixth Silverstone victory. But there was more to Hamilton's success than happenstance, and Mercedes team-mate Valtteri Bottas was always on a collision course with defeat.

Not that it seemed that way at first. Bottas looked more comfortable throughout the weekend and didn't even need a perfect lap to pip Hamilton to pole position. And when he moved to the right to cover Hamilton off the line, Bottas achieved what he failed to do in both China and Spain by converting pole position into the lead. But any hope he had for an easy time was dispelled by being unable to shake off Hamilton during a scintillating opening four laps.

Bottas was forced to defend when he should have been trying to get out of DRS range, with the battle coming to a head on lap four of 52. Into The Loop, the tight left-hander that precedes the kink at the start of the Wellington Straight, Bottas had to cover the inside line and compromised his exit. Hamilton's resulting run, augmented by the deployment of the DRS that gave him a straightline advantage of up to 15km/h (9mph), meant Bottas had no choice but to defend into Brooklands.

Hamilton drew alongside and took a wide entry, cutting back to the inside and carrying enough speed to slip across the front of Bottas, whose exit was compromised, just before they turned into the long Luffield right-hander. It seemed to be a decisive move for the lead, but Bottas came back at Hamilton on the run to Copse down the old start/finish straight. Hamilton jinked to the right, but too late to cover his team-mate who had the inside line for the fast right-hander. Hamilton had to let him go and the order was restored. It was a stunning battle that had the crowd on its feet, even though the duo were polite with each other to avoid breaking the golden rule of team-mates not to make contact.

This was at close as it got in the first stint. But Hamilton, who briefly dropped out of DRS range and was then able to close back up to search for another chink in Bottas's armour, clearly had a pace advantage. The Finn, however, remained rock solid up front and absorbed the pressure like a sponge.

With the twin Ferrari versus Red Bull battles behind raging - the first with Charles Leclerc leading Max Verstappen and the second with Sebastian Vettel under pressure from Pierre Gasly - the Mercedes drivers had pulled a gap of almost eight seconds by the time the pitstop sequence began. This was triggered by Gasly diving into the pits to change from medium tyres to hards on lap 12, having just passed Vettel for fifth place up the inside of the Village right-hander.

Whether Bottas could have pulled off a one-stop was a moot point. Not only was Hamilton's pace formidable, but so was his tyre management

Leclerc and Verstappen interrupted their battle to stop a lap later, both taking mediums. While Leclerc had started on softs and had to work increasingly hard to keep Verstappen at bay during the stint, Verstappen used mediums so was locked in to a two-stopper by this. This meant only Vettel, having a lacklustre weekend and struggling to extract pace from the understeery Ferrari with its shortage of front-end downforce, remained in the pitstop window of the Mercedes drivers. So Bottas, whose front-left was in an advance stage of wear, pitted at the end of lap 16. He emerged third, 4.4s behind Vettel and 18.3s down on Hamilton after his out-lap. Crucially, Bottas took mediums and committed to a two-stopper.

Bottas set about closing on Hamilton on his new mediums, chipping an average of four tenths of a second on each of the next two laps. At that stage, the challenge he faced was to make up what ground he could while Hamilton continued to extend his stint in chasing a one-stopper. This meant Bottas was destined to be chasing Hamilton in the closing stages with a tyre offset of perhaps eight to 10 laps in a bid to make up for the pitstop time loss and take the lead from his team-mate.

It was a big ask, but Alfa Romeo driver Antonio Giovinazzi prevented this race from playing out. He locked the rears at the entry of Club while running 10th before his stop and spun, burying himself in the gravel trap. The team blamed a "mechanical issue", while the cause was later diagnosed as a rim problem, but the effect was a well-timed safety car for Hamilton. He pitted, bolted on fresh hards and had every chance of being able to make it to the finish without stopping again.

Bottas stayed out rather than making his second stop to put him on an even footing with Hamilton. It was the logical move as not only would he have lost track position to Vettel, who was still on his starting set of softs so capitalised on a cheap pitstop, but he was only four laps into his stint on mediums. He was also unsure of the durability of the hards, with neither Mercedes driver having tried them during practice. But the safety car had cost him.

"After my first stop I felt like it was under control," said Bottas. "I was following the pitstop gap I had to Lewis and I was just waiting for him to stop and obviously the safety car got him ahead of me at that point. I was stuck into a two-stop at that stage so I had to stop in the end, which was a mistake from our side. Two-stop we thought would be by far the fastest, but actually one-stop was possible as well."

That was certainly the case for Hamilton, but whether Bottas could have pulled it off was a moot point. Not only was Hamilton's pace formidable, but so was his tyre management. Given that Bottas's first set of mediums were on the limit when they were removed after 16 laps, it's legitimate to ask whether he could have kept the front-left wear under control long enough to pull it off even if he were attempting to manage it from the start. And even if Bottas had extended the first stint, and could have made the hards last as well as his team-mate, Hamilton's pace advantage would have ensured he was under attack at regular intervals. It would have been a big ask.

With Hamilton seemingly home free, Bottas's new challenge was to build up enough of a gap over the squabbling Ferrari and Red Bull drivers to retain second. Vettel led that group thanks to the timing of the safety car, with Gasly and Verstappen separating him from the unfortunate Leclerc, who also lost out due to the safety car. Almost a second ahead at the restart, Bottas pulled six tenths per lap from Vettel and had built a 10-second advantage while keeping Hamilton in check when Vettel came under attack from Verstappen in a scrap that was to change the race again.

Verstappen had already prevailed in a dramatic fight with Leclerc during the second stint. They emerged from their pitstops side by side, with Verstappen just ahead before Leclerc squeezed past the Red Bull as it ran wide out of The Loop after defending on entry. There was subsequently an alarming moment on the Hangar Straight when Leclerc jinked right as Verstappen pulled alongside him in a bid to get the inside line into the corner, with the pair narrowly avoiding contact.

During the safety car period, they swapped positions thanks to Verstappen being called sharply on lap 20 and Leclerc a lap later, putting them fifth and sixth and both on hard tyres. Leclerc almost got fifth place back by forcing Verstappen to defend at the slow left-handed entry to Club then squeezing up the inside into the right-hander. He then showed he'd digested the implications of the controversial stewards' decision that allowed Verstappen to keep Austrian GP victory, forcing Verstappen wide onto the runoff via light contact, but Verstappen came back at him out of the corner to retake the place. That dramatic fight won, Verstappen set about Vettel.

This battle did Bottas a big favour. Verstappen looked to have it won decisively when he passed Vettel around the outside into the fast Stowe right-hander on lap 37. But he ran a little wide at the exit and gave Vettel the chance to come back at him on the run to Club. Verstappen stayed left, while Vettel searched forlornly for an opening to dive up the inside that the Red Bull was parked in. He realised the gap was non-existent too late and started to jink right but, shorn of downforce running so close, Vettel locked up and drop-kicked the Red Bull into a spin.

Vettel also spun, recovering to the pits a lap later while Verstappen rejoined having dropped to fifth behind Leclerc, whose rightful third place was restored having been stolen by the safety car, and the resurgent Gasly. Despite damage to the rear of the car, his lap times were respectable to the finish and he held fifth place without any real difficulty. Without the clash, he would likely have jumped Bottas when the Mercedes made its second stop, potentially setting up a battle for second in the closing stages.

With that, the race was seemingly set. But there was a sting in the tail. With Vettel out of the way - and also having to serve a 10-second penalty for causing a collision in such a cack-handed way - and Verstappen delayed, Mercedes now had plenty of space behind to make pitstops without losing its one-two. Bottas was always going to have to pit, but Hamilton was called in first for what would have been a precautionary pitstop, one that would also have given him a shot at fastest lap. Hamilton overruled and stayed out.

Meanwhile, Bottas made his stop and rejoined second. At that point, Hamilton radioed in a concern with a blister on his front left Pirelli that led Mercedes to call him in, before aborting amid fears that the gap to Bottas wasn't big enough to avoid losing the lead were a small mistake to cost a few seconds in the stop.

"The safety car wouldn't have made a difference. My plan was to offset as much as I could, so I went four laps [longer] and probably could have done another lap or two. He wasn't catching me and he should have been" Lewis Hamilton

It was a last-minute drama that ultimately made no difference to the result, and Hamilton was expected to cruise to the finish while Bottas had a clear run at fastest lap. The Finn duly knocked in a 1m27.406s on his used softs on lap 47 that everyone, including the Mercedes, thought had secured the bonus point.

Only Hamilton didn't agree and, blister or no blister (actually, there was no blister but there was some minor damage to the tyre Hamilton had clocked), he made an audacious attempt to steal fastest lap. He took the chequered flag to win, in the process setting a time 0.037s quicker than Bottas, using hards on their 32nd time around Silverstone. Even though Bottas's lap was compromised a little by not having the maximum electrical energy to utilise, and a small fuel-load disadvantage, this was a shock and underlined just how quick Hamilton was on race day.

It was an outstanding performance, with the foundations laid by the first stint. The safety car made it seem more fortunate than it was as it denied Bottas the lead in the middle stages of the race, but he would have had to stop again. There was nothing to suggest that he would have had enough of an advantage to close the gap to Hamilton after that second stop had the race stayed green, even though Bottas suggested he would have been able to after the race.

"The safety car wouldn't have made a difference," said Hamilton. "When he pitted on lap 16 my plan was to offset as much as I could, so I went four laps [longer] and probably could have done another lap or two. At the time, he was not catching me and he should have been.

"He came out of the pits seven-tenths inside my window, then it came to one, then 1.5s, but it stayed at 1.5-2s. If I'd done another lap, it would have got to 2.5s maybe then I would have come out on fresh hards and could have just sat behind him if I wanted to as he would have had to pit, so I'd have still had that 21s gap. Even though I was behind him I would have tried to overtake him, but in hindsight I didn't need to."

He's right that without the safety car he would likely have won, but the only real question is if Bottas could have extended his first stint. The wear of his front left in that stint suggests not, although he made the mediums in his second stint last well and was only just starting to leak time to Hamilton when he made his final stop.

Whatever might have happened, it was clear Hamilton was the fastest in race conditions and would likely have found a way to win whatever happened. That's not because Bottas was poor, because he drove very well, it's just that Hamilton, on form, on home soil, was close to unbeatable.

Any suggestion of an unfair split of strategy, an unusual move from Mercedes that ran counter to its usual policy, was balanced up by the fact that Bottas and Hamilton both had access to exactly the same data and strategic plans. Bottas, perhaps mindful of his historic tyre-management deficit, did not believe a one-stopper would work and avoided the hards, whereas Hamilton went for it from the start. And while Mercedes boss Toto Wolff suggested the second-place car was always likely to try the one-stopper, it seems unlikely Bottas would have dared attempt that had he slipped to second in the first stint.

Bottas said he was "double unlucky" in reference to the performance of the hard making the one-stopper not just possible but, for Hamilton, relatively straightforward and the timing of the safety car. It was a shame the race didn't play out as it should have done to remove all doubt and give Bottas his chance, but Hamilton's strategic execution and pace advantage had nothing to do with luck. Again, this was a day on which Bottas performed extremely well but came up second best to an all-time great in a race that will live long in the memory.