Where F1 tech gains will be made in 2015

Given that the 2015 regulations are very similar to last year's, it will be a case of evolution rather than revolution in Formula 1.

But that does not mean that there is not potential for teams to make some big strides up the grid - and slide down it if they get things wrong.

The most obvious visual change will be to the noses thanks to regulations designed to make them more aesthetically pleasing. Beyond that, everything will be about refinement of existing concepts.

But the changes to the front of the cars won't transform the looks, even though it should make the cars more geometrically sound.

The new regulations still allow a narrow nose tip, but the introduction of a bigger cross-sectional area just behind that tip means that you will not be able to produce the extreme 'anteater' designs of last year.

I suspect that we won't see dramatic variations in design because the window you are working in is now so small. But you will still see some small variations at the front.
While the noses will be more geometrically sound, that doesn't necessary equate to them suddenly looking beautiful.

What I would like to see to address this, and allow plenty of variation from car to car, is the FIA deciding where the front bulkhead of the chassis is located and is structural shape. Then, a common crash structure can be developed and produced by one company for use by all teams.

This would easily save teams half-a-million pounds, and probably more, and satisfy the safety requirements to the same level for everyone.

Don't expect front wings to be varied through the grid in 2015 © XPB

What you could then do is allow teams to clothe that crash structure with whatever aerodynamic shape they want. It seems an obvious way to go, it will allow teams room to style the car the way they want and ensure that cars are more distinctive and that the aerodynamic concept starts from nose tip to trailing edge of rear wing.

But that's not happening in 2015. Beyond that, the regulations are stable, aside from the increase in minimum weight to 702kg.

This continues the increase in F1 car weight, from 642kg in 2013 to 691kg last year and now 702kg. All but 1kg of that increase is thanks to a 10kg hike to tackle the fact that some taller drivers were having to run dangerously lean because of cars being critical on weight.

Personally I don't think the way this has been done is correct, it should be a 15kg driver weight pocket half way up the seat back. This would also mean that smaller lighter drivers would not get a centre of gravity advantage.

Its interesting at the FIA have now gone his way, as during my time sitting on the technical working group it was the one thing that Max Mosley was totally against. He always said a heavier car means more energy to disparate in an accident - he was and still is correct.

As normal with changes like this it comes a year too late to properly tackle the problem.

Most of the top teams weren't struggling too much last year, perhaps with the exception of Ferrari, which was close to the limit because of its power unit package.

As for the smaller teams they will have made gains. Some, like Force India, were already in good shape on weight in 2014.

While hitting the minimum weight is less of a problem, this does create more scope for how to use ballast. If you can put the extra weight low down in the car, that will lower the centre of gravity and automatically make the car better on tyre use.

So it could help close the grid up a fraction, but only by a tiny amount.

The rest of the 2015 car design will be based on teams recognising the weaknesses they had last year and addressing them.

The single biggest challenge was that last year's cars were generally unstable under braking.

Some teams had weight issues last year, but it won't happen in 2015 © XPB

This is down to a combination of rule changes aimed at reducing rear downforce, and the ERS recharge system and the new rear brake-by-wire technology that created a lack of feel and consistency for some drivers.

The rear beam wing was eliminated, on top of the loss of exhaust blown downforce thanks to the locating of the single exhaust tailpipe behind the rear wheel centreline.

The beam wing, diffuser and exhaust blowing all worked together to create more stable rear downforce, so the changes are why the cars tended to slide more on track then they did previously.

So if you can make aerodynamic gains and improvements to the ERS harvesting and brake-by-wire systems to get that consistency back the driver will be able to show his true potential.

A driver can't get the best out of an inconsistent car - just look at how much Lotus struggled last year - so it's vital to have the car as stable as possible when in a transient state.

Teams will have understood the problem last year but there's a limit to how you can address these issues on an existing design. This year offers a fresh start and freedom to get to the heart of the problem.

The teams that take the biggest step will be the ones that have really understood why things were not working as well as they should be. Recognising the problem is never easy, and finding the cause of it is even tougher. But without doing that, you can't solve it.

With a year's experience with the engine package, the teams will understand the cooling demands more. But I wouldn't expect to see things being any more tightly packaged.

Last year, a lot of teams were very marginal and had to dial back performance to keep things under control in warmer ambient temperatures.

So I don't expect to see dramatic differences, beyond teams trying to improve efficiency with their cooling within similar overall package sizes.

Engine-wise, there is potential for big changes. The homologation rules allow 48 per cent of the power unit design to be changed, although thanks to yet another loophole these can be fed in during the season.

Teams will try to improve engine cooling this year © XPB

So you can expect to see more power and performance, but a lot of that will also come from teams better understanding how to exploit the potential of the engine.

Everyone is talking about Renault and Ferrari trying to catch up, but more important in terms of development will be this understanding.

Mercedes gained so much in 2014 by having the clearest idea of what they wanted to get out of the engine package. I'm sure most teams will have focused on this area in recent months.

If you look at Mercedes last year, it had a car with good straightline speed harnessed to pace in the corners. Straightline speed is down to more power and less drag.

A few years ago, Red Bull had fantastic cornering speed and lap times were superb but its car was relatively slow down the straights.

But Mercedes had it all last year - top speed, grip in the corners and good tyre use. That added up to a huge advantage and reflects how well the engine package and aerodynamic concept fitted each other's requirements.

In terms of overall performance, the cars will be quicker this year than they were in 2014.

While the nose regulations reduces the potential maximum airflow you can get under the car - crucial for downforce generation - teams will have had plenty of time to offset that with development.

So I expect downforce levels to start the season higher than they finished last season.
Add to that the fact that the engines will have more performance and teams should understand how better to exploit that performance, not to mention increasing the rear stability, and it all adds up to a big step forward.

It will be fascinating to see how the lap times at the season-opening Australian GP compare to those last year.

Quicker, certainly, but by how much?