What Wolff is thinking in Mercedes' driver quandary

Who will drive for the Mercedes Formula 1 team alongside Lewis Hamilton next year? It's a question to which Toto Wolff doesn't yet know the answer, if what he told us over the Hungarian weekend is to believed.

Wolff said the decision-making process would formally kick off this week, and that the outcome should emerge before the end of the summer break. When it does, the remaining pieces of the 2020 driver-market puzzle should start to fall into place.

What we do know is that when the proverbial white smoke emerges from Brackley, the winner will either be incumbent Valtteri Bottas or reserve driver Esteban Ocon - a man most agree is one of the big stars of the new generation.

The key is that Wolff wants the best possible 2020 line-up, but with a Plan B, and long-term options in place too.

Mercedes was caught out badly at the end of 2016 when then-world champion Nico Rosberg abruptly announced his retirement. It was only Wolff's own long-term relationship with Bottas, and with Mercedes engine customer Williams, which allowed a solution to be found.

But it was an expensive one, and had it not worked out Mercedes would have been left with Pascal Wehrlein - a decent driver but someone the team no longer really had faith in as a future superstar, and who would have had a hard time racing in the shadow of Hamilton.

Wolff doesn't want to be put in that situation again. He knows that sooner or later, Hamilton will make the same call Rosberg did, and announce that he's stopping. Mercedes needs an heir and a spare.

So aside from Ocon and Bottas, were there any other serious candidates for the 2020 seat? There's no doubt Wolff was looking wistfully at Max Verstappen in recent months, having lost out to Red Bull in the chase for his signature back in 2014.

The opportunity to create a Senna/Prost-style superteam, while at the same time weakening the opposition, is a tempting one.

Hamilton versus Verstappen in the same team would have been sensational box office, and if and when Lewis retired a year or three down the line, Mercedes would still have one of the superstars of the era.

We'll never know how serious any conversations were - Wolff admitted to having had a friendly drink with Jos Verstappen in Hungary - but it became academic when Max finished second and guaranteed that he was in the top three in the world championship heading into the summer break. That meant he couldn't trigger the performance clause that might have allowed him an early exit from his Red Bull contract.

Wolff has rightly recognised that it's way too early to throw Russell in alongside Hamilton, who is absolutely at the top of the game

Given Honda's improving form, and Max's clear number-one status, one has to question whether Max would have been prepared to jump anyway. After the wins in Austria and Germany he knows that anything is possible.

"He's at Red Bull, he has a contract," Wolff noted in Hungary. "He's committed to Red Bull, and I like to see how he says that, because I wouldn't want to have any driver in my team looking over the fence at what opportunity is out there.

"You've got to be committed to where you are. And he's committed to Red Bull, and this is where he's racing this year, this is where he's going to race the year after. And everything else is very much out in the open."

There was more than a hint in those words that Verstappen will remain on the radar of Mercedes, and is in the long-term mix. He has to be, in the same way that every team once kept an eye on Ayrton Senna.

What, then, of George Russell? One well-connected source told Autosport that Wolff's thinking is less about Ocon v Bottas, and more along the lines of whether Ocon or Russell is his potential future superstar. And of course, when Hamilton retires, Mercedes may well have a home for both.

However, for the moment Russell is parked at Williams, quietly learning his trade in a situation where he has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Wolff has rightly recognised that it's way too early to throw Russell in alongside Hamilton, who is absolutely at the top of the game.

Charles Leclerc has done an awesome job after jumping to Ferrari in only his second year of F1, but there have been a lot of mistakes. Another season at Alfa Romeo - with a car that's often at the sharp end of the midfield battle - could have enabled him to join Ferrari in 2020 in even better shape to deal with the pressures inherent in driving for the Maranello team. Mercedes prefers to take a more cautious route with Russell.

"I think you've got to consider that these guys come into F1 at a very young age," said Wolff. "And there are exceptions to the norm, such as Max Verstappen, who was given the environment at Toro Rosso to learn, and to make mistakes, and even at Red Bull was given the room to make mistakes.

"It's impressive to see his progression in all kinds of aspects, as a personality - there's not one bad word about Honda, only good words about his team, the commitment to the team. And that is absolutely the right behaviour of a driver, I wouldn't expect anything else.

"But he was also given the possibility, even though he's extremely talented and well developed by his environment, to learn."

Wolff admitted that at Mercedes there's no room for such a honeymoon period - there's just too much at stake.

"I don't think you're given the possibility to learn in a Mercedes. Because you're being put in a car that is able to win races and championships, in a high pressure environment, and I think it can go terribly wrong for a young driver that has the talent to be become a world champion if he's thrown into that environment next to the best driver of his generation, who has been with us for seven years.

"And I wouldn't want to burn George. I think it would come too early, and on top of that I try to be respectful to all contracts we sign - and we signed a contract, we knew what we were doing with Williams. And this is where he's going to learn."

Crucially Russell is very much available to Mercedes in 2021 or '22 if needed, and that option is part of the wider debate that's going on.

Mercedes may simply decide that it cannot afford to have Ocon out of reach for that long, and that Bottas has to pay the price

But the focus for now is on 2020.

"It's a question between Esteban and Valtteri," Wolff confirmed. "We've been discussing it for a long time within the team, and I've been wrestling with myself on what is the right thing for the team, and what is the right thing for the drivers.

"And if we were to have only one of them, it would be a no-brainer to have them in the car. And in a way, both deserve the seat. Esteban, because he has been through tough situations, and he certainly has the motivation and the energy and the talent to be in a Mercedes. On the other side Valtteri has the experience and has proven again how fast he can go.

"He's tremendously supportive in developing the team together with Lewis. So there's lots of pros, some cons, and at the end what we decided is to really not thinking about it more than we did already, wait for the Budapest weekend to pass, stick our heads together over the summer, and then come to a decision that is best for the team, and best for both, because we care for both."

One thing is clear - Ocon has to race for somebody next season, because another year on the sidelines with just sim driving and the odd test to keep him busy will be far from optimum.

The problem for Wolff is that he has no obvious opportunity to use his leverage with the two Mercedes customer teams to find Ocon a 2020 seat.

Racing Point will keep Lance Stroll and Sergio Perez, while Nicholas Latifi is a favourite to join Russell at Williams if Robert Kubica is not retained. Mercedes is also not keen to pitch Russell and Ocon against each other in the same team, since one could potentially be damaged.

The obvious problem is that teams which don't have Mercedes connections are understandably reluctant to take a driver who retains contractual ties with a rival.

In essence they are potentially willing to accept an arrangement where Ocon still has a management contract with Mercedes, but they will not agree a two or three-year deal with a clause that states Mercedes can call him back at any point within that period.

The added complication for Wolff is that no rival team is likely to commit to just a one-year deal that would leave Mercedes free to take Ocon if it has a seat to fill in 2021. Why put resources into a driver's career if he's gone after one season?

In other words if Ocon does race elsewhere in 2020, he will be gone for two or three years, with no chance for Mercedes to bring him back before his contract runs its natural course. And that lack of access to him will play a big part in the decision - Mercedes may simply decide that it cannot afford to have him out of reach for that long, and that Bottas has to pay the price.

If he doesn't get the Mercedes seat, where can Ocon go? He has been mentioned in connection with Renault as a possible replacement for Nico Hulkenberg, having been close to joining the team last year before Cyril Abiteboul changed his mind and a deal was done with Daniel Ricciardo. He also has potential options with Haas if Romain Grosjean departs, and with Alfa Romeo if Antonio Giovinazzi is not retained.

"If you can't provide an opportunity for a young driver then you've got to make compromises," said Wolff. "Certainly I wouldn't sabotage Esteban's career by blocking him and not releasing him to drive in F1.

"And he is a great personality, because he said he would understand if we were to do this, and if needed he would stay in the Mercedes family and do something else with us. But I think he must be given the opportunity in F1, either with us or another team, and who knows what happens in two, three, four years down the line.

"These guys are all so young, they're between 22 and 24 years old. This is when Lewis joined F1. So the future is bright for all of these young guys."

Asked if teams were interested in Ocon only if he was free from a Mercedes commitment, Wolff said: "It's not about being free from Mercedes, because when you're with another team you're not racing for us anyway. Yeah, there's interest in the paddock to have him."

"We have responsibility for our juniors and for the ones who are in the car with us right now. And we're not going to do anything that's going to make it harder for them" Toto Wolff

Inevitably the focus is on what Wolff does with Ocon. But what of Bottas? There is clearly no way that Mercedes will take the youngster and hang Bottas out to dry with his future not secure.

He's at a very different stage in his career to Ocon, so it's a very different set of parameters. Any team taking Bottas would potentially have him for as long as they want - he wouldn't be in a holding pattern waiting to go back to Mercedes.

In addition, he's a known quantity. He's proved that he can win races and outqualify the greatest driver of the era, and that he's a good team player who doesn't make waves. Of course, on balance he's been outperformed by Hamilton. But who wouldn't be?

Throw in his knowledge of what makes the Mercedes quick and he's a strong candidate for Haas or Renault. Or if Latifi doesn't get the Williams seat Bottas could return there and be a sympathetic foil for the still-developing Russell.

You could even argue that he would be an interesting solution for Red Bull, should the team decide for once to look beyond its established stable. If RBR and Honda want a reliable points-gathering machine who would help support a serious tilt at the 2020 constructors' title - while pushing Verstappen hard but not causing upset - Bottas would be a pretty good choice. And don't forget all that handy Mercedes knowledge.

Egos and politics mean it won't happen, of course, unless Helmut Marko and Christian Horner are willing to think outside the box.

After the Hungarian race, Wolff was asked if finding a soft landing for Bottas was a priority in the internal debate, and he admitted that it was.

"It absolutely plays a role because we have responsibility for our drivers," he said. "We have responsibility for our juniors and for the ones who are in the car with us right now. And we're not going to do anything that's going to make it harder for them.

"So yes, whatever we decide we consider the option for the driver to go elsewhere, and if it's for Esteban [to] progress, to make it back one day in a Mercedes, or if it's for Valtteri, have a soft landing like you call it. Because he deserves it."

Bottas has recently had the look of a man who knows that he might ultimately lose out, and he admitted after the Hungarian race that he's prepared for every eventuality.

"Of course when you're in that kind of situation, and when you still want to race in F1, you need to have Plan B, possibly Plan C," he said. "So for sure I've been thinking about stuff and talking about stuff. It's good to have different plans, so now we wait."

Wolff and his colleagues now face that difficult choice. The engineering department will provide detailed views about performance, but what Wolff won't have is the counsel of Niki Lauda, a man who would have cut through any sentiment about disappointing one or the other drivers and said, "This is what we need to do right now and here's how it will play out in 2021, 2022 and beyond."

Even without Lauda's hard-nosed approach, Mercedes has to make a dispassionate, fact-based choice. The decision will also have to be run past new Daimler chairman and Mercedes CEO Ola Kallenius - a man who has a much deeper understanding of motorsport than his predecessor, and who previously had a hands-on involvement in F1.

"We will not let one race result influence our decision," Wolff insisted on Sunday night in Hungary. "It's more about compounding all data and looking at it, and making a decision.

"It's stability and a great personality and a great driver versus giving youth a chance in the car, with all the rewards and risks it can bring. We will start the process tomorrow, and it's not going to be an easy one."