What Vettel must do to rediscover his former greatness

When Sebastian Vettel takes on Lewis Hamilton, he loses. Always. Or rather, that's what it feels like given the events of the past couple of years.

The verdict, Vettel is the lesser driver, a busted flush who should make the rumours of his retirement that he recently denounced into a reality.

But as always, things are a little more complicated than that.

Hamilton does seem to have a hex on Vettel. When they crossed swords in Canada earlier this month, it was Vettel who cracked and ran off the road. In Bahrain in April, it was Vettel who spun while trying to hang onto Hamilton after being passed. In Russia last year, it was Vettel who gained track position then soon lost it to a charging Hamilton at a circuit where overtaking is difficult. And it was Vettel who spun while side by side with Hamilton at the second chicane on the first lap of the 2018 Italian Grand Prix.

'Quick driver, can't race', goes the usual criticism.

But right now, he remains Ferrari's best hope. For while Charles Leclerc has proved he can cut it at the front in Formula 1 and should have won the Bahrain GP, he remains a work in progress. In particular, qualifying is still a question mark, with too many errors, some small, some big, coming on Saturday afternoons. But qualifying remains a strength for Vettel, and that's a double-edged sword that often leaves him exposed in the race in situations where the Ferrari doesn't have the same pace on Sundays as it does with the aid of its extreme engine mode in qualifying.

Remember, Vettel has prevailed in wheel-to-wheel battles with Hamilton in the past year. In the Austrian GP last July, he passed the Mercedes driver, and on the first lap in Belgium he made a vital pass that ultimately earned him his most recent F1 victory. So, he can do it. What's different is that in those situations he was behind but, at that phase of the race, in a car that had a slight advantage.

When at his best, Vettel is outstanding. During the exhaust-blown era he manipulated Red Bull machinery, often counterintuitively, to astonishing heights by using the throttle to give the car more downforce than it otherwise would have.

When the car does what he wants and allows him to attack the corner on the brakes on turn-in, in the knowledge that the rear will stay planted, he is as quick as, maybe quicker than, anyone. And he is at his best while bossing a race from the front, when he can at times be unstoppable. Contrary to popular opinion, he has also turned in key passes in races on occasion - even if with far less frequency than Hamilton.

That commanding version of Vettel seems to have gone missing. But you don't have the success he has had without having the ability to dominate, and presumably it must be possible for him to unlock that level of performance and robustness again. The performance profile of the Ferrari at times has inevitably meant he's often under pressure in race situations when at the front, and he's not dealt with that well of late.

It will be down to Vettel himself, on track, to find a way to change things

It's easy to argue that Hamilton would have won more races than Vettel in a Ferrari over the past two and a half years, and very possibly have taken a title.

But there remains the question of whether Ferrari has created the right environment around Vettel. At Red Bull, his relationship with race engineer Guillaume Rocquelin was particularly important and seemed to keep the more emotional side of Vettel, which can sometimes manifest itself counterproductively, in check.

At Ferrari, the pressure is uniquely intense and maybe this is one of the reasons why Vettel hasn't managed to stabilise his performances. The fact he's lost out to Hamilton so many times in battle relatively recently is perhaps making it more difficult for him to focus on the process of driving his own race while under pressure from his great rival.

None of this is to exonerate Vettel from responsibility.

He has made too many mistakes over the past year and needs to minimise them if he is ever to claim that increasingly elusive fifth title. But the idea he's some kind of accident-prone incompetent who lucked into four world championship - as propagated by some of his more enthusiastic critics on social media - is a ridiculous one.

That Vettel warrants criticism in some areas should not wipe out the fact he is a seriously good racing driver, even if the past few years have proved he is not quite Hamilton's equal. But it's down to him to find a way to get back to his best and give himself a chance.

So what will it take to turn the corner? A more competitive Ferrari - or should that be a more consistently competitive Ferrari - would be a help.

Chances are, Montreal was not a turning point but merely a circuit that swung the balance in Ferrari's favour thanks to the large amount of time spent on straights and it will be back to business as usual at Paul Ricard this weekend.

It could be that Vettel just needs 'a win' - both literally and, in terms of prevailing in a fight with Hamilton, figuratively. It's desperately unlikely that Ferrari's request to review the Canadian GP penalty will lead to a reversal of that result given the history of such attempts, and even if it was successful it's doubtful that this would wipe out the psychological effect of the error Vettel made to put himself in that situation.

It will be down to Vettel himself, on track, to find a way to change things.

The question is whether he has the determination, the desire and the capacity to do so. Whatever happens, he shouldn't be underestimated. Champions have a habit of picking themselves up when they appear to have been floored. It's just a matter of whether Vettel still has that in him because, if he does, the ability is still there to be far better than he has been.

Perhaps the big question, and this is where we drift into speculation because you can never really be sure what is going on in someone else's mind, is if he really does have that determination.

Vettel wouldn't be the first to have lost that edge, that sharpness, that fixation on excelling, after significant success. It's something that many great drivers have lost long before they got to four world championships.

What is often forgotten is just how tough it is to excel in elite sport. Yes, it's not a matter of life or death, and the best are paid wild sums of money to do something most can only dream of, while the lifestyle afforded is in many ways so much easier than many endure. But it brings with it different pressures, varying demands that most people do not have to face and that is what takes its toll.

In Vettel's case, all he can do is repeat a championship. Yes, it would be different in that it would be a Ferrari title - and you do wonder if he'd consider it job done in F1 were he to secure that - but he would still be climbing that same mountain. And depending on your psychology there are some who lose that last 1% that drives them to excellence once they've achieved to a certain level.

Vettel is only 31 so could easily have another decade at the top level should the bit between his ears really want him to. He is still capable of exceptional performances and the driver that did so well in the Red Bull years is still there. Yet what is inescapable is that, since Red Bull slipped back in 2014, he has been streaky.

The recent rumours that Vettel is contemplating retirement have been denounced by the man himself and personally I've heard nothing on the matter that adds credence to them, but it's something that can't be ruled out. When you can no longer dig deep enough, you have to walk away. Nico Rosberg, after all, was the same age as Vettel is now when he quit F1 so it's not unprecedented even in recent times.

We should not write Vettel off - unless, that is, somewhere deep in is psyche he has already done that himself

Most likely, Vettel wants to get it back but doesn't know how.

In the Red Bull years, he got into a virtuous circle of performance. Success breeds success, and failure breeds failure. Just imagine how Vettel felt in Canada - being chased by Hamilton, with all the doubts implanted by recent failures in battle with him gnawing away, compared to the man chasing him being buoyed with the confidence of battles won.

Vettel still has it in him to get back on track and be the Ferrari world champion he once seemed destined to become.

Right now, he is not the biggest weakness in that package given the performance of the car, but he must get himself back on track now so that if and when Ferrari is ready, perhaps in 2020, he will be too. This brings us back to that need for a 'win' - ideally a wheel-to-wheel triumph over Hamilton - to erase the baggage of recent happenings and unlock the more formidable Vettel.

If not, then Leclerc, with a season's experience, will surely be there to usurp him, and Vettel could, at the end of his current deal in 18 months, find himself asking some very tough questions about whether he can find it in himself to roll back the years. With Max Verstappen performing exceptionally well over the past 12 months and Leclerc on the rise, Vettel's position as one of grand prix racing's most pre-eminent drivers is looking shaky.

For the sake of Ferrari and F1, let's hope he does find a way. Vettel at his peak was and still is, albeit with less frequency, an incredible driver - even if he's not quite the same all-round package as Hamilton. And given how good Hamilton is, that still makes Vettel potentially an outstanding performer and ideally he'll be up there with Hamilton, Leclerc, Verstappen and the rest for years to come.

We should not write Vettel off - unless, that is, somewhere deep in is psyche he has already done that himself.