What recent F1 history reveals about the chances of Red Bull being caught in 2023

The inconvenient truth is that usually one team steals an early march at the dawn of a new technical era for Formula 1. Rather than the regulatory reset creating a more tightly fought grid as the rule makers originally intended, wiping the slate clean too often paves the way for dominance.

Red Bull in 2022 was a case in point. Last year brought arguably the greatest shakeup in topflight history. In came ground-effects in a bid to inspire closer racing. But once the Ferrari challenge spectacularly collapsed, the evolved and lighter RB18 with its supreme Honda powertrain-derived top speed virtually had it all its own way. Collecting both drivers’ and teams’ championship crowns courtesy of 17 grand prix victories was proof enough.

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Likewise, when the 1.6-litre turbo hybrid formulae debuted in 2014, Mercedes ran away with the spoils. Even for the radical switch to ‘wide cars’ three years later, when series bosses wanted to create the fastest breed of machinery in F1 history, the Three-Pointed Star wasn’t unseated – bar one controversial day in Abu Dhabi in 2021 when Max Verstappen ended the unbroken run of drivers’ and constructors’ trophies.

Wind the clock back further. For the fabled ‘Return to Power’ in 1966 when engine capacity doubled to 3000cc, in a car bearing his own name, Jack Brabham was soon the clear driver and team founder to beat.

But what about the following seasons? What’s the precedent for the dominant force in year one then being made to sweat at the second time of asking?

After the utter command that Verstappen held over the field in 2022, most want to see a closer contest. A total slash of 25% for Red Bull’s windtunnel runs and computational fluid dynamics hours – courtesy of winning the constructors’ championship and being found to have exceeded the 2021 cost cap – should markedly help Ferrari (205) and Mercedes (244) in their bid to close the chasm that formed in the standings last term.

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But the recently introduced Aerodynamic Testing Restrictions aside, does modern F1 history give cause for optimism that a multi-marque fight is imminent?

1995: Pitwall perfection proves the deciding factor

Benetton beat Williams to the constructors crown in 1995 with regular strategy masterclasses

Photo by: Motorsport Images

For those of us banking on Mercedes and Ferrari rectifying their respective porpoising and unreliability shortcomings of 2022 in order to take the fight to Red Bull, the lesson from 1995 is that it won’t be up to the Brackley and Maranello designers to make the difference.

The dark art of electronic driver aids such as traction control, active suspension and anti-lock braking were outlawed at the start of a turbulent 1994 season. Although Michael Schumacher ran out as the drivers’ champion, the Williams FW16 in ‘B’ spec (following the death of Ayrton Senna at Imola, front and rear wings were raised) allowed the Grove squad to snare the constructors’ crown by a narrow 15 points.

Benetton fought back the following term to bag its sole teams’ title by 25 points. Partly that was down to the Ford-Cosworth V8 of the B194 being replaced by a Renault V10 in the B195 evolution thanks to a works engine deal. But after the return of mid-race refuelling and then the introduction of a pitlane speed limit in 1994, it was Benetton learning to nail its strategy that created a change at the top in the second year following a major rules change.

It was supreme defending champion Schumacher and the slick Benetton pitwall that proved the true class leaders to ensure a different victor in the second year

The Adrian Newey-penned Williams FW17 was the superior car as the outfit fought back from its poor adaption to the ban of the gizmos that it had pioneered. David Coulthard rates that machine, rather than any of his race-winning McLarens, as the best drive of his career. The supertimes metric, which takes the fastest lap set by each team during a race weekend, gives it the edge also. As does the Scot and team-mate Damon Hill combining to snare 12 of the 17 pole positions.

However, as Hill committed one too many blunders, it was supreme defending champion Schumacher and the slick Benetton pitwall that proved the true class leaders to ensure a different victor in the second year. The skittish behaviour of the unbalanced B195 was offset by a strategic masterclass in Spain, a critical one-stop in Monaco, outfoxing Williams in France, Hill spinning out of the lead in Germany and so on. For 2023, Ferrari should take note...

2010: The indie one-hit wonder sells out

After selling up to Mercedes, the former Brawn team was leapfrogged in 2010 and trailed to fourth in the constructors' standings

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Famously, it was Brawn GP that excelled at the advent of the new rules cycle in 2009, when grooved tyres and fiddly appendages were ditched in favour of slicks, cleaner aero but those awkward-looking narrow cars. An element of what has made this underdog upset such a part of F1 folklore is that Brawn was cash-strapped as the season wore on.

The team lost out massively in the development race and was hanging on to the bitter end to bag the crown. That lack of funds not only led to the sale of the team to Mercedes but also meant that the following car was half-baked as Brawn didn’t commit resources to its line of succession.

In that sense, 2010 is arguably anomalous as what became Merc slumped to a distant fourth in the standings, some 284 points behind champion outfit Red Bull. However, that the start of the new decade was marked by an utterly compelling campaign does provide comfort. While the Milton Keynes outfit was quickest at the end of 2009 and then sustained that momentum over the winter to land its first drivers’ and teams’ titles the year after, Sebastian Vettel wasn’t assured of the championship spoils until the death in Abu Dhabi.

That was down to the pressure exerted by Ferrari and McLaren. Those two heritage squads missed the double diffuser trick in 2009 and were nowhere. Of their four drivers, only Kimi Raikkonen fortuitously bagged a KERS-dependent victory at Spa. But they came back fighting in 2010, having switched early to developing their new machines - much like Mercedes has done for the W14.

All told, McLaren ranked second in the standings and just 44 points down on Red Bull with Ferrari 102 off the top. While that’s the metric that matters, it should be noted that both fell back to Red Bull according to the ‘supertimes’. They regressed from 0.398 (Ferrari) and 0.422 (McLaren) behind Red Bull to 0.432 and 0.513 respectively.

2015: The Prancing Horse gallops back into the battle

Vettel got Ferrari back to winning ways in 2015, but it wasn't nearly enough to threaten the Mercedes dominance

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

As the ear-piercing 2.4-litre V8s made way for the 1600cc turbocharged hybrid V6s in 2014, F1 returned to primarily being an engine formula. And since Ferrari produced the worst powertrain of the lot, it endured an irredeemably torrid campaign. No wins for the first time since 1993, zero poles and just two podiums (both for Fernando Alonso) rendered the F14 T as an abject failure - even if its aerodynamic credentials were relatively sound. Ferrari losing its star driver and getting through three team principals come the end of the year meant matters off-track weren’t much rosier.

However, for the birth of the SF15-T for 2015, new technical director James Allison had finally had an influence on car design. And compared to brusque and political Alonso, new driver Vettel was a galvanising force for the team. But it was the strides forward taken by the engine department that allowed Ferrari to remerge as a force at the front of the pack.

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A heavily reworked Energy Recovery System, a more robust internal combustion engine and trick fuel from Shell resulted in far super straight-line speed. Niki Lauda even reckoned that Ferrari’s motor was a match for Merc’s come the end of term.

Ferrari’s revival in time for 2015 was marked and impressive. It climbed from being only the fourth-fastest manufacturer up to second, duly taking a third out of its supertimes deficit to Mercedes. But it wasn’t sufficient to tee up a title fight for the ages

However, while there was a return to winning ways, a hat-trick of wins all scored by Vettel paled in comparison to the 16 shared by eventual champion Lewis Hamilton and stablemate Nico Rosberg. Of those three, the successes in Hungary and Singapore were arguably more down to the Silver Arrows’ shortfalls rather than Ferrari truly earning them on merit.

Given how abysmally 2014 played out for Ferrari, its revival in time for 2015 was marked and impressive. It climbed from being only the fourth-fastest manufacturer up to second, duly taking a third out of its supertimes deficit to Mercedes. But it wasn’t sufficient to tee up a title fight for the ages, as the Three-Pointed Star still ran comfortably to the spoils. Red Bull, meanwhile, never bothered the top step of the podium. By this measure, then, it would be more up to the ATR to produce a thrilling 2023 season rather than hoping history repeats itself.

2018: A Maranello design undermined by user error

Vettel's Hockenheim crash was crucial in allowing Hamilton to defend his title in the second year of F1's wide-body rules

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

While Mercedes extended its run of hybrid-era form upon the return of chunky tyres and bigger wings in 2017, it was given an easier run to that year’s titles courtesy of Ferrari’s unreliable SF70H. Sebastian Vettel led the standings with just eight races to go before the infamous startline collision with team-mate Raikkonen and Verstappen in Singapore. Then came a grid penalty for an engine swap in Malaysia, retirement in Japan induced by a faulty spark plug before the pressure proved too much and the four-time champion cracked.

Nevertheless, the Scuderia stamped out another potential world beater to contest the 2018 season. Until the summer break, the SF71H was the fastest machine in six out of the 12 race weekends (Red Bull and Mercedes split the rest), according to the supertime figures. But it was Vettel that predominantly allowed this championship challenge to fall apart. He notoriously crashed out of the slippery German GP before colliding with Hamilton and spinning at Monza, as the bad form also dogged outings at Suzuka and Austin, Texas.

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While the statistics therefore suggest Mercedes had a relatively relaxed run to another title double, the reality is that the number one Ferrari driver was too often at fault. But for the purposes of determining whether there’s previous for the dominant force to be caught during the second year of a rules cycle as their nearest rivals refine their concepts, at least the previous major shakeup suggests Red Bull might indeed need to look over its shoulder.

Will Mercedes or Ferrari be able to usurp Red Bull and Verstappen this year?

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images