What next for Red Bull after Honda's shock Formula 1 exit?

Honda's latest spell in Formula 1 will come to an end in 2021 after the Japanese manufacturer made a shock announcement that will have wide-reaching ramifications.

Not only does it put F1 back down to three power unit manufacturers, a level it has not been at since the start of the V6 hybrid power unit era in 2014, but it also leaves Red Bull facing big challenges to overcome in the short-term future.

Honda confirmed in Friday's announcement that it "communicated our thoughts to Red Bull Racing" in August that it was considering an F1 exit, before it "determined to conclude participation at the end of September".

It is something that Red Bull has been planning for, but both it and sister team AlphaTauri are now in need of a power unit supplier before the end of next year, and are seriously short on options with just three manufacturers currently committed to F1.

Barring the arrival of a new power unit supplier, Red Bull will lose its current de facto works status that it enjoys with Honda. The partnership has been largely successful since it began in 2018 - initially through Toro Rosso, before Red Bull also took supply the following year - and suited both parties. Red Bull felt it was lacking proper support from former partner Renault, while Honda's marriage with McLaren ended in a bitter divorce after just three years.

The solace they found in each other led to some impressive on-track success. Max Verstappen scored three race wins through 2019 and has been the only driver to get close to the Mercedes pair through 2020, taking a hard-fought win at the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix. With the exception of some occasional frustrated gripes, the performance of the Honda power unit has never been a regular point of contention for Red Bull as it was with Renault.

The absolute support offered to Red Bull by Honda was something it revelled in. More than ever, it looked capable of delivering on the hope of a world championship.

But now Red Bull is back to square one. Honda stressed in its announcement the decision was not made as a result of its F1 performance, but instead due to its shift in company focus towards carbon neutrality. It will still introduce an all-new power unit for the 2021 season, underlining its commitment to Red Bull and AlphaTauri to the very end.

Beyond that date, the picture is unclear for Red Bull. It will no longer be a priority for its engine supplier, something it was keen to benefit from in order to fight the works Mercedes and Ferrari operations for race wins and titles. It will be back to 'partner' status - and we saw with Renault just how difficult that was to make a success.

When Red Bull signed the Concorde Agreement in mid-August, it would surely have been aware of Honda's considerations. Team principal Christian Horner said in the wake of the manufacturer's announcement that Red Bull "remains committed to the sport in the long term and we look forward to embarking on a new era of innovation, development and success".

"If there is a strong partnership opportunity we will do it. I have doubt that it could be with Red Bull" Cyril Abiteboul earlier this year

Horner added: "As a group, we will now take the time afforded to us to further evaluate and find the most competitive power unit solution for 2022 and beyond."

Red Bull has proven it is capable of winning with different manufacturers, though. It is the only team to have taken wins in the last decade with multiple engine partners, and will be preparing for life after Honda with that in mind.

Quite what the solution will be is unclear. Mercedes is already slated to supply three customer teams on top of its works outfit in 2021, while Ferrari has its roots set up with Alfa Romeo and Haas. The only manufacturer without any wider outstanding commitments from next year, ironically, is Renault.

Renault is only set to supply its in-house team from 2021, when it will be rebranded as Alpine, but has previously said it would be open to working with partners down the line. However, Cyril Abiteboul made clear it would need to be a partnership that offered real value to Renault.

"It has to be more of a partner team than a customer team," Abiteboul said during the Alpine announcement at Monza. "Customers bring you nothing. Partners maybe can bring you some value, the value being that it can help us reach a sporting objective or business objective.

"We know that this transaction is regulated anyway. So it's mainly from a sporting and technical perspective that we would look at the opportunity."

Asked directly about the possibility of rekindling a partnership with Red Bull, having said it "missed a trick" with its approach to engine partners, Abiteboul was quick to dismiss the suggestion.

"I don't want you to take away that we are talking again with Red Bull," Abiteboul said.

"Red Bull is a works team with Honda. I think the first thing is for Honda to decide for their own commitment, for their own strategy in the sport.

"We've been there with Red Bull, it didn't work. I think I was asked why Red Bull is having the difficulties it is having, and in my opinion, one of the reasons is that they have already sort of rejected this possibility of much more integration, that we have progressed between Viry and Enstone."

Abiteboul concluded: "If there is a strong partnership opportunity we will do it. I have doubt that it could be with Red Bull."

But the nature of the sporting regulations mean that, in an extreme case, Renault may have no say in the matter.

Stemming from Red Bull's own frustrations with Renault back in 2016 and struggles to find a new power unit supplier, the rules were tweaked to ensure that no team can be left without an engine.

The sporting regulations state that the FIA has the power to compel a manufacturer to give supply to a team upon request from the lobbying partner.

Appendix 9 of the sporting regulations covering power unit supply from 2021 to 2025 reads: "The FIA will first allocate the power unit supply between the Power Unit Manufacturers that are supplying the fewest number of teams, provided that the teams without a supply agreement shall be allocated to the Power Unit Manufacturer that supplies the lowest number of teams."

Red Bull has until 1 August 2021 to put in a request to the FIA for a power unit supply. Based on the current engine agreements, Renault would be obliged to meet that.

To activate such an option would very much be a last resort for Red Bull. The team will be eager to explore all avenues, undoubtedly including conversations with Mercedes and Ferrari too, before settling on a decision.

There will be a recalibration of how Red Bull functions moving forward ahead of the budget cap introduction next year and the new regulations in 2022, but having to find a new power unit supplier is a headache it could have done without

There is also the wider question of what this means for Verstappen's long-term future, Red Bull's once-in-a-generation talent that it hoped to turn into the youngest ever world champion.

Now 23, Verstappen is set to miss out on that target, limited by the capabilities of the team's car once again this year rather than his own performances that have stood him out as one of the best in the field. Red Bull will need to work hard to outline its future vision of the team beyond 2021 to make clear to Verstappen it remains his best bet of becoming world champion.

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There will be a recalibration of how Red Bull functions moving forward ahead of the budget cap introduction next year and the new regulations in 2022, which offer a good break point for Red Bull to topple Mercedes. Having to find a new power unit supplier for those new rules is a headache it could have done without.

Regardless of its next step, this is a huge setback for Red Bull. The partnership with Honda seemed like a perfect fit - but it just came to fruition too late to have built into a serious threat to the Mercedes juggernaut.