How Verstappen's Bahrain mistake can only make him stronger

He was suddenly on the outside line. He didn’t want to be, but circumstances had forced him here. Still, he had a chance to win a race he’d long led, if he got things right.

The cars came close together, then, an unexpected jolt. It sent him wide over the kerbs on the exit of the right-hander. Although a few laps of the race remained, his victory hopes vanished.

Formula 1 is at its best when it’s close, unpredictable and (whisper it) controversial. The stakes are even higher when wins are on the line – plus the next twist in the captivating storylines of battling drivers. That’s why the race ending you’ve just read was so enthralling.

A driver found themselves in a new situation – and they backed themselves to succeed based on their prodigious ability and successful track record. The slightest misjudgement cost them dear.

But Charles Leclerc learned from his painful 2019 Austrian Grand Prix defeat to Max Verstappen, in the same way that Verstappen will no doubt become stronger after losing out on the 2021 Bahrain win by slipping off the road in his battle with Lewis Hamilton.

Of course, this is with the benefit of hindsight, but Verstappen’s decision to fully attack Hamilton at the precise moment and place he did must go down as a mistake. Not a big one in the moment, but an error nevertheless, and one that cost a famous win.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, passes Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

The pair were running down the Bahrain track’s second straight, approaching the Turn 4 right-hander that had been under track limits scrutiny all weekend.

A reading of the various race director’s notes and post-race explanations from Mercedes, Red Bull and Michael Masi leads to the conclusion, at the time of writing, that running wide out of Turn 4 was acceptable during the race, until Red Bull queried Hamilton doing it, at which point he was ordered to stop and both camps understood the score.

This is why Verstappen was ordered to give the position back after getting ahead at that spot on lap 53 of 56.

A key part of the sequence was Antonio Giovinazzi being lapped. Hamilton was vocally unhappy about the blue flags the Alfa Romeo was shown on the previous lap, but no matter how that unfolded he was still on the inside of the straight approaching Turn 4 before the race’s pivotal moment occurred.

Giovinazzi’s unlikely part in a victory scrap and the corner the leaders were approaching were factors that Verstappen may consider differently if he were to have that time again

Hamilton had successfully fended off Verstappen’s initial attentions into Turn 1, but then with DRS again on the second straight, Verstappen had another, and first proper, chance to reclaim the lead.

But the Alfa’s presence meant he had no choice but to go to the outside once Hamilton had begun to cover the middle of the track – and an ambitious move began. The Red Bull’s massive momentum meant he pulled ahead before sweeping in, but an oversteer snap – possibly caused by a sidewind gust – meant Verstappen’s trajectory suddenly took him wider and he completed the move in the problematic spot.

Verstappen explained later that despite his 11-lap tyre offset advantage, that “goes away very quickly once you get within 1.5s”. Additional sliding in dirty air when trying to follow closely is a well-known overtaking-impacting problem with current F1 and a lack of subsequent grip meant Verstappen simply couldn’t just cruise back up to Hamilton and attack again.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB15, collides with Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF90

Photo by: Lorenzo Bellanca / Motorsport Images

With his knowledge of the tyre situation at the time, Verstappen may have felt he had no choice but to try where and when he did.

But Giovinazzi’s unlikely part in a victory scrap and the corner the leaders were approaching were factors that Verstappen may consider differently if he were to have that time again. Simply put, attacking elsewhere or a lap later without the backmarker’s presence may have been a better option. But we’ll never know.

We do know other things – thankfully. Verstappen has a proven track record of adapting his game after making mistakes – even if he won’t admit to them, such as the string of costly errors he made in early 2018, after which he appeared to adjust his game and not put everything on the line every lap.

We also know that Leclerc toughened his battle style after his 2019 Red Bull Ring defeat (above), even at the very next race – where at Silverstone he took on Verstappen again and that time won out. Later that year, he triumphed in the Italian GP with a robust defence against Hamilton.

And Monza memories are important here. Just as we get to Leclerc’s second and (shockingly still) most-recent F1 win from his Austria defeat, a step back in time to the 2018 Italian GP is worth taking.

Here, Hamilton produced one of his most-famous and brilliant victories against the two faster Ferraris – currently ranked second only to his 2008 British GP win by Autosport, when considering all 96 he has taken in F1 so far (and last weekend in Bahrain must now be considered for a high placing in any updated ranking from our chief editor!).

Back in time, Hamilton saw off Sebastian Vettel on lap one, then paired excellent Mercedes strategy with superb tyre-life usage to force Kimi Raikkonen into eating through his own rubber, resulting in a fantastic win against the formbook. And he did exactly that again last weekend.

It’s worth blending those two races together when considering what to take away from F1’s 2021 season-opener.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF21, Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, Lando Norris, McLaren MCL35M, and the rest of the field at the start

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Red Bull’s testing pace has transferred into the season proper and must currently be considered the benchmark, with Hamilton claiming, “we can’t match them in qualifying right now”.

It’s worth noting that Bahrain is an outlier circuit of sorts, with its abrasive surface and windy setting – both of which will make a car that struggles with rear handling, such as the Mercedes, suffer more.

But Mercedes says it also has a weakness in high-speed turns compared to Red Bull and therefore expects the layouts at Imola and Portimao to suit its rival more. There’s always games being played in F1, but Mercedes’ pre-season warnings about the rear floor rule changes impacting its chances and being behind after testing came true…

Just as Leclerc improved two years ago, Hamilton knows that Verstappen will not give away the same prize again

So, it seems that right now, F1 has got the title fight many wanted – and arguably the championship overall, needed – with Verstappen and Red Bull the favourites and Hamilton and Mercedes the challengers.

That’s why Monza 2018 is important – because Hamilton can make the difference in a slower car and did so again last weekend.

He knows he and his team have “got to be smarter” than Red Bull and perfect in every area from now on, given that the unique circumstances of F1’s technical rules in 2021 mean it will be very hard for Mercedes to develop its way out of trouble.

Red Bull may also reflect, as Verstappen suggests, that it didn’t “have a lot of flexibility in the strategy”, and perhaps alter its weekend tyre usage given that Mercedes had an extra set of hard tyres that it deployed to its gain in last Sunday’s race.

But when it comes to the drivers leading the way, Austria 2019 and Verstappen’s defeat last Sunday should be meshed in thoughts of the now expected title fight to come. Just as Leclerc improved two years ago, Hamilton knows that Verstappen will not give away the same prize again.

“We were fortunate with Max going wide in Turn 4,” concluded the world champion. “But that won’t happen again.”

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 2nd position, and Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1st position, on the podium

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images