Why Red Bull and Racing Bulls face a tough decision over 2027 F1 line-ups

Nikola Tsolov's Formula 2 career has progressed at remarkable speed. After finishing runner-up in last year's Formula 3 championship, Red Bull decided to promote the Bulgarian straight to Formula 2 for the final two race weekends of the season.

Making that step while many of his rivals had already spent almost a full year – or even longer – gaining experience with F2 machinery is far from straightforward, but Tsolov impressed immediately. In Qatar he scored points in the feature race at his first attempt, while in Abu Dhabi he left many in the media centre stunned by claiming his maiden podium in the sprint race.

Tsolov has carried that momentum into this year, recording four victories and sitting second in the championship so far. His feature race win at Spielberg moved him to within just two points of championship leader Gabriele Mini. Granted, this year's F2 field is definitely not the strongest of recent years, but Tsolov's development remains impressive nonetheless.

The aspect Red Bull's decision-makers tend to value most – much like Helmut Marko did in the past – is how quickly a young driver adapts to the next step up and to faster machinery. That adaptation did not come particularly quickly in F3, but it has been clear in F2. It bodes well for the final step into F1, although Franco Colapinto explained in a recent interview with Autosport that the move to F1 is by far the most difficult and that nothing can truly prepare a young talent for it.

That applies, among other things, to the immense pressure that comes with it, the media commitments, the constant spotlights and all the off-track obligations that, according to Colapinto, carry 100 times more weight than in the junior categories: "In Formula 1, you're only driving about 10% of the time."

Tsolov set for F1 test, but Lawson exceeds expectations

Driving is naturally the first step, though, and that’s exactly what lies ahead for Tsolov. He has yet to take part in an F1 practice session, but first needs to complete at least 300 kilometres in older F1 machinery as part of a TPC programme (Testing of Previous Cars).

Tsolov's adaptation to F2 has been rapid, but the bigger test is to come

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Racing Bulls team principal Peter Bayer has revealed that such TPC tests are planned for the autumn, after which a practice outing is expected to follow towards the end of the season, most likely combined with the rookie test in Abu Dhabi should the season finale go ahead there.

If Tsolov continues on his current trajectory, he is naturally a genuine contender for an F1 seat in 2027. That already led to persistent paddock rumours several months ago, although Racing Bulls strongly denied them – something Bayer reiterated again this week.

"He's doing a great job and is a huge talent that we naturally have on our radar," Bayer said. "But we've only had seven races so far, and Liam and Arvid are doing just as great a job. So it's not an issue at all right now."

Ordinarily, promoting Tsolov would be a no-brainer, especially given Red Bull's philosophy of fast-tracking its own talent. But there is just one complicating factor this time: Lawson has exceeded expectations this season as well.

The one advantage Red Bull has is that it can afford to be patient. Neither Tsolov nor Lawson appears likely to go elsewhere, allowing the decision-makers to carefully assess how both drivers develop over the remainder of the season

The New Zealander endured a whirlwind of emotions last year, mainly because he was demoted from Red Bull back to Racing Bulls immediately after the Chinese GP. Although he has always maintained publicly that the setback never affected him mentally – "because I wasn't even given enough time to prove myself at Red Bull" – it still took a while before he truly rediscovered his rhythm at the sister team.

This year, however, Lawson has done exactly that. The Kiwi has scored points in six of the eight GPs so far, which is particularly impressive considering that F1's four leading teams still occupy the vast majority of the points-scoring positions.

The competitive order normally leaves only two places available for the "best of the rest" – even if it should be noted that Red Bull started the season unusually weakly – and Lawson has been in that fight every race weekend.

Lawson was under pressure coming into 2026, but has flourished back at Racing Bulls this year

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The month of June has been particularly telling in that regard. Lawson claimed an impressive sixth place in Monaco before following it up with eighth in Barcelona and ninth in Austria – each vastly different circuits. He is doing exactly what Racing Bulls and Red Bull expect from him, especially with team management making it clear that rookie Arvid Lindblad is benefiting from Lawson's experience.

Will the 'Red Bull philosophy' ultimately decide it?

All of this makes the decision facing Racing Bulls – and ultimately Red Bull – for 2027 a difficult one, and one that is closely linked to the question of what the Faenza-based team is ultimately meant to be.

If Racing Bulls is to remain a development team for Red Bull, then promoting Tsolov appears to be the logical choice. Lawson has already had his opportunity with the senior team and, at least for now, does not seem likely to be promoted again. So yes, if developing young talent remains Racing Bulls' primary purpose, there is a compelling case for giving the 19-year-old Bulgarian his chance as soon as possible.

At the same time, that would be extremely harsh on Lawson. Realistically, Red Bull can hardly ask any more of him than what he has delivered this season. And it should not be forgotten that Lawson himself is still only 24, meaning there should still be room for further development. It is a luxury problem, but a very difficult choice to make – especially if Tsolov wins the F2 title this year, which would prevent him from returning to the championship next year.

One compromise could be to keep him behind the scenes throughout 2027, allowing him to learn and prepare fully for F1. However, recent history has shown that such an approach can be risky for both the team and the driver involved.

Felipe Drugovich, for example, never got his F1 opportunity despite winning the F2 title convincingly, while one can only hope Leonardo Fornaroli does not suffer the same fate – Haas would be wise to take him for next year. On the other hand, Alpine did not promote Oscar Piastri immediately after his F2 title either, only to lose him the following year, although that is a story in itself.

The dangers of not promoting a star junior driver is well known in F1

Photo by: Rudy Carezzevoli / Getty Images

The one advantage Red Bull has is that it can afford to be patient. Neither Tsolov nor Lawson appears likely to go elsewhere, allowing the decision-makers to carefully assess how both drivers develop over the remainder of the season. That includes evaluating what Tsolov shows in an F1 car, both during the TPC tests and in the subsequent F1 practice outings.

This is not about finding the next Max Verstappen – the junior programme has not had another talent of that calibre since – but it nevertheless presents Red Bull with a luxury problem.

Given Red Bull's traditionally bold philosophy, promoting Tsolov still appears to be the most logical route. Lawson, however, is doing everything he possibly can to make that decision exceptionally difficult and, for the time being at least, postpone it.

Who will Racing Bulls - and Red Bull - select in its driver line-up for 2027?

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