The times that suggest Verstappen should be confident of F1 Russian GP recovery

For the second consecutive 2021 Formula 1 event, Mercedes ends the opening day of running in a commanding position versus Red Bull.

Thanks to the vagaries of the sprint race weekend format, qualifying had already taken place by this time at Monza. But on Friday evening at the Russian Grand Prix, the sessions that really matter are still to come.

But that doesn’t make Mercedes’ position any less dominant – although of course it should be noted that the team’s excellent potential at Monza was wasted by Lewis Hamilton’s poor start to the sprint race there.

At Sochi, even if either one of the Black Arrows’ cars were to slip down the order from their grand prix grid spot, the track’s layout favours overtaking. Despite Sochi being a more complex circuit than Monza, the Italian GP venue’s configuration combines poorly with the aerodynamics of the current generation of cars – usually leaving them trapped in DRS trains and unable to follow closely or mount a pass unless the pace differential is particularly big. This is how McLaren was crucially able to stay in front of the faster ‘Class A’ squads when it mattered in the two Monza races.

But it’s the upcoming race that matters now and right now, Red Bull is facing quite the on-paper challenge.

Russian GP FP2 overall order

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

The bare facts of the day on Friday show that Mercedes, which is unbeaten at Sochi since it joined the F1 calendar in 2014, led both practice sessions 1-2.

Max Verstappen finished FP2 (overall order above) down in sixth – behind Pierre Gasly, Lando Norris and Esteban Ocon – and will start Sunday’s race from the back of the grid after taking his fourth engine of the season.

That latter element is less of a problem than it appears, because the team has absorbed (cannily or controversially depending on your partisan point of view) the blow from the three-place grid penalty he was set to serve for being adjudged at fault for the dramatic crash with Hamilton in the Monza GP.

The upcoming lowly grid spot also goes some way to explaining Verstappen’s lack of ultimate pace versus Valtteri Bottas in FP2 – still always a consideration to approach with practice caveats regarding fuel loads and engine modes firmly in mind.

So, it appears there is more pace to come from Red Bull, but Verstappen is nevertheless wary of predicting he will simply carve his way back through the field – as he did three years ago here in similar engine-change-penalty circumstances

But data Autosport has seen suggests the Dutchman was losing significant time to Bottas on the straights during their respective best flying lap times in FP2. But it’s unclear at this stage if the Red Bull had its engine mode turned down more than would be expected for practice, or if the additional drag created by its rear wing was holding it back.

By contrast, Gasly was measured as going faster through the Turns 4 and 5 90-degree rights that bookend the end of Sochi’s first sector – with the suggestion he was running a higher engine mode compared to Bottas and Verstappen.

Logic also dictates that even if the expected rain on Saturday somehow meant the grid was to be set by the FP2 finishing order, Verstappen would still start the race from the back, so didn’t need to push on today.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Such a scenario is highly unlikely anyway given the FIA and the teams expect the rain to abate enough to run qualifying on Saturday afternoon and there’s a back-up to run the Q1-Q2-Q3 session in the dry on Sunday morning too. All part of the “number of options available to us in the case of inclement weather”, per race director Michael Masi.

So, it appears there is more pace to come from Red Bull, but Verstappen is nevertheless wary of predicting he will simply carve his way back through the field – as he did three years ago here in similar engine-change-penalty circumstances. In that race, which Mercedes may well have in mind for different reasons, Verstappen went from 19th to fifth in just eight laps.

“Of course, in 2018 the gaps to the midfield were a bit bigger,” the championship leader said after FP2.

“So, naturally I think it will be a bit more difficult to come through. We have to take the penalty anyway, and if we wouldn’t have taken it here, we would have taken it somewhere else. We thought ‘OK, now we’ll decide to do it here and we’ll try to make the best of it in the race’.”

Medium tyre averages

*N/A McLaren, Aston Martin

But Verstappen should take heart from his long-run pace, where he posted the most competitive average time on the medium tyres (above).

This compound is the most likely compound that the frontrunners will pick when it comes to their tyres for the first stint – it’s what Bottas used on his way to winning here a year ago, mirrored by the chasing Verstappen, plus it provides greater strategic flexibility in the event of safety cars.

Antonio Giovinazzi, Alfa Romeo Racing C41 crashes during practice

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

A race interruption is always a realistic possibility at Sochi – as evidenced by Antonio Giovinazzi’s FP2 crash and the usual slips off the road at the big right-hand stops of Turns 2 and 12 throughout Friday. After starting on the mediums the best race strategy would be a one-stopper to switch to the hards.

The times above suggest that Verstappen had a clear, albeit small, edge on Mercedes’ directly comparative long-run on the mediums. Bottas did produce a faster average of 1m39.681s compared to the one logged by Hamilton and shown above, but this was completed over just four timed laps, which suggests he was fuelled for a shorter stint.

For Verstappen, who must hope team-mate Sergio Perez can cause trouble for the Mercedes’ cars on Sunday – perhaps the biggest test of the Mexican driver’s role in the second Red Bull as he’s encountered so far this year – the problem in terms of a recovery drive does depend on how easy the Dutchman finds it to overtake the midfield runners.

But the times above at least suggest he has a handy advantage over the ‘Class C’ and lower midfield runners. The Sochi layout will also make things easier, but it’s certainly possible his better race pace is at the very least compromised when it comes to reaching the Ferrari and McLaren cars.

Mercedes still has the typical fine-tuning to complete overnight, but any further set-up changes to enhance the overall balance for both Hamilton and Bottas are set to be small adjustments rather than fundamental changes

Ferrari, which was pleased with the initial on-track performance of the upgraded hybrid system fitted to Charles Leclerc’s car for this event, posted a very competitive long-run average with the Monegasque in FP2. But the team is wary of the front tyre graining problem that has plagued it at times so far this year – albeit it not as dramatically since the French GP in June.

“It was a good day for the team,” said Carlos Sainz Jr. “We managed to test the PU on Charles’ side without any problems. It looks encouraging.

“And from my side I had a good day on track just taking it easy – little by little, getting used to this car on this track, which is a very confidence biased track where you need a lot of commitment in these 90-degree corners. We looked to be on the pace.”

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Returning to Mercedes, it reckons its strong one-lap form versus Red Bull is also enhanced here by the lack of very high-speed corners at Sochi – the area where the RB16B’s higher overall downforce level means it typically gains time. But there’s no doubting how smoothly things went for the reigning champion squad on Friday.

When the day ended, Hamilton was still feeling discomfort in his neck, which stems from being struck on the helmet by Verstappen’s right-rear wheel in that Monza crash, but his car handling felt comfortable from the off in FP1.

Bottas reported feeling immediately similarly happy with the W12’s balance and so Hamilton said that as a result they then went on to try “quite different [arrangements] with our set-ups to see which areas work best”. He then additionally explained that Mercedes will “spend tonight studying the data to understand where we want the car for tomorrow and Sunday”. These differing set-up experiments are understood to be related to rear wing and overall drag level adjustments.

Mercedes still has the typical fine-tuning to complete overnight, but any further set-up changes to enhance the overall balance for both Hamilton and Bottas are set to be small adjustments rather than fundamental changes.

In fact, other than a few minor off-track moments and Hamilton’s rear sliding rather luridly at the end of his fastest lap in FP1, the only blip in Mercedes’ day happened when the world champion returned to the pits after 15 minutes had passed in FP2.

At this point, Hamilton slid past his pitbox marks and knocked Mercedes’ front jack operator backwards and off his feet, suggesting via his team that this was down to an issue related to the ‘magic’ brake-balance system adjustor that he accidentally knocked back on at the restarted Baku event in June. In that instance, Hamilton locked-up heavily with the brake balance set overwhelmingly forwards and dropped to the rear of the field of a race he had been set, for a split-second, to win.

But Autosport understands that the pit problem in Sochi today may not have been related to the ‘magic’ button after all and that Mercedes is still looking into the exact cause.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, in the pits

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Assuming Mercedes maintains its dominance through whatever qualifying is to come, plus the race start and the pitstops, and Bottas and Hamilton are running in that order, with which the finished in both FP1 and FP2, attention will eventually turn to which one of them takes the victory.

Even if Verstappen can recover to the podium places, with some assistance from Perez, this is a golden chance for Mercedes to hit back in the title battles and recover the ground it seems it’s still pretty, and understandably, miffed to have lost in the controversial Spa washout.

The biggest question then might just be how much the soon-to-be leaving Bottas wants to help his current team-mate at the same venue where he had to sacrifice a clear victory shot in 2018…

“We've got to try and capitalise on [Verstappen starting last] naturally, and try to get the maximum result,” said Hamilton. “A 1-2 would be spectacular for us.”

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images