The sudden slump that left Gasly defenceless

Do you feel sorry for Pierre Gasly? Many probably do: promoted to Red Bull a season early and promised all of the patience that should be afforded to such a challenge, only to be sent back to Toro Rosso after 12 races.

The news that Alex Albon will be moved from the junior team to take Gasly's seat from the Belgian Grand Prix has triggered plenty of question marks over Red Bull's conduct. We have already outlined the wider arguments that likely played a part in Red Bull's decision, and the risks this move poses for Albon.

It is perfectly understandable to have sympathy for Gasly's plight. But what must not be underestimated is his role in the decision-defining events that led up to the summer break.

What team boss Christian Horner said of Gasly after the Hungarian GP was, by some margin, the most negative public appraisal of the team's new-for-2019 driver: "The problem is he is not in the mix at all...Not having two cars running at the front does hurt us, particularly in the constructors' championship." It marked the first indication of Horner struggling to conceal frustration at Gasly's struggles.

There was still no sign that a decision to drop the 23-year-old was imminent. In fact, Horner made it clear he hoped Gasly could use the summer break to try to get to the bottom of what has gone wrong this year. Maybe he will, but it will not be happening in the same circumstances, and any efforts to rectify those shortcomings will have to come in Toro Rosso colours back in F1's midfield.

"Our intention is to leave him in the car until the end of the year," said Horner after the Hungarian GP. "But we desperately need to see him realising more of the potential of the car."

"We shouldn't be racing Alfa Romeos and McLarens" Christian Horner after Gasly's poor Hungarian GP

Clearly, something changed. The million-dollar question is what that was. There are a few early theories with substance.

It could have been deeper analysis from Red Bull into that weekend and the races before it, which identified the extent of the unaddressed weaknesses.

Perhaps Gasly's attitude behind the scenes, or inability to adjust effectively, hurt the team's confidence in him making the big shift required. Maybe it was just part of a global consideration of the current season and Gasly's prospects beyond it.

Whatever the reason, it is obvious Red Bull would not be doing this without feeling it was necessary. Red Bull has precedent for swapping drivers mid-season and Gasly left himself vulnerable to a repeat.

In a few ways, Hungary appears to represent the flashpoint. It was a dreadful combination of poor performance, regression after a modest improvement and - evidently - the reality of the situation becoming undeniable to Red Bull.

While Max Verstappen qualified on pole in Hungary, securing a milestone achievement for himself, Red Bull and Honda, Gasly posted his worst performance of the season relative to his team-mate. He was 0.878 seconds off the pace, the biggest deficit he suffered all year around one of the shortest laps so far. Gasly could not explain his dip, which was sudden and alarming in equal measure. Where had the recent progress gone, and why could he not identify what was different?

To make matters worse, a terrible first lap dropped Gasly behind the leading midfield runners and there he remained for most of the grand prix - making it back to sixth, but barely clear of Kimi Raikkonen and defeated by Carlos Sainz Jr. Horner was clear: "The start wasn't great, the first lap wasn't great, and we shouldn't be racing Alfa Romeos and McLarens."

Context is also vital when assessing the role the Hungarian GP weekend appears to have played in that criticism being expressed. It marked such a dramatic shift in Red Bull's position, and in hindsight perhaps could be identified as the first sign of what was announced in such unexpected fashion on Monday.

Around one year ago Gasly got the call he thought would change his career for the better as Red Bull reacted to Daniel Ricciardo's surprise exit for Renault. Ever since the summer of 2018 Red Bull has pledged to give Gasly time to get up to speed. It acknowledged the difficult situation he was facing and before this season had started, Horner promised: "We have got a clear difference between the experience in the two drivers and the expectations".

The harshest way to characterise Gasly's struggles is that events in Hungary shifted the British GP from a turning point to a bit of a fluke

Since then, Red Bull's public message over Gasly has been one of consistent support, even from costly pre-season crashes in testing and the very first race of the season.

When Gasly was eliminated from Australian GP qualifying in Q1 and could only recover to 11th in the race, Horner said: "We know he's got the pace, we've just got to give the kid a bit of time and it'll come right for him."

A quick run through Red Bull's responses to the major moments of Gasly's season since then show how consistent that position remained: and how it then changed. Two months later, and Gasly had scored just 21 points across the opening five races and failed to finish higher than sixth, while team-mate Verstappen earned 66 points and two podiums.

Horner eyed the positives: "In fairness to Pierre, it's starting to come. China was a turning point for him, he had a good weekend in Baku."

Eventually Red Bull opted to switch Gasly to Verstappen's set-ups, hoping this would help him. This fact after the Austrian GP, where Gasly was a lapped seventh as Verstappen won - taking Gasly's tally at that point to 43 points compared to Verstappen's 126.

That was painful for Gasly, but it did trigger a swift improvement. At the next race in Britain, he was more competitive than at any point all season, albeit still three tenths slower than Verstappen in qualifying. He raced well, passed Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari on the outside and inherited a season-best fourth place after Verstappen was wiped out by Vettel late on.

"Just getting back to basics, he has been like a different driver all weekend," was Horner's response to that performance.

Unfortunately, another difficult weekend followed in Germany. Gasly suffered a crash in practice and a race-wrecking clash with Albon. Still, Red Bull motorsport advisor Dr Helmut Marko was adamant: "This year we won't change. We will end the season as we currently are."

One week later and Gasly was under massive scrutiny, but supposedly still safe for the season. Two weeks on from Germany, and Gasly's demotion to Toro Rosso has been announced.

All signs point to Hungary. Had he continued his apparent progress after Austria and ended the first half of the season with a strong result - a podium was absolutely in the offing had he been quicker - why would Red Bull make a change?

The harshest way to characterise it is that events in Hungary shifted the British GP from a turning point to a bit of a fluke. If Gasly had finally gained a proper handle on his struggles or truly understood what his limitations were, then Britain would have been a step forward and Germany and Hungary would have been even better, not worse.

Sure, Red Bull could have waited longer to get a bigger sample set of races to be certain that what happened at Silverstone was the exception that proves the rule: that Gasly has either not grasped what is holding him back, or that he cannot/does not know how to address it. But as harsh as the decision appears, given the patience it promised Gasly, Red Bull has acted with its best interests in mind.

It has responded to shifting circumstances. Nobody has a bigger bank of data with which to make this decision than Red Bull, and crucially there would not have been a decision to make had Gasly shown signs of real progression.

The bottom line is just as Gasly's campaign threatened to benefit from much-needed momentum, and Red Bull was probing the situation most deeply, he suffered another setback and left himself defenceless.

Hungary was not the first problem weekend, but it underscored all that has been negative so far. One way or another, that put Red Bull into the position it desperately wanted to avoid.