The real impact of Honda’s early engine upgrade

Honda's early engine upgrade has put it out of sync just four races into the 2019 Formula 1 season, but it will be important in the engine supplier's quest to catch Mercedes and Ferrari.

After identifying a reliability concern following the Chinese Grand Prix weekend, Honda brought forward the introduction of its Spec 2 engines for all four of its cars across Red Bull and Toro Rosso.

That has already put both Toro Rosso drivers on the brink of a grid drop and all but guarantees Red Bull duo Max Verstappen and Pierre Gasly will take at least one penalty later in the year.

In the context of Red Bull failing to fight for pole or victories in the first four weekends of the season, early engine changes and the prospect of grid penalties could be interpreted as the same old story from Honda.

But the evidence suggests that Honda's progress remains consistently on an upward trajectory, so grid penalties will not deter Red Bull given it entered the season expecting to take some.

Red Bull also points out that it had no problems with the engines it used on either car over the first three weekends, while Honda says that the new spec was introduced as a precaution against a repeat of the problem that struck Kvyat in Shanghai practice.

Honda was already preparing its second specification with the intention of having it ready should a problem be discovered at the start of the year. A precautionary introduction that brings a short-term benefit, via better reliability and the chance to run the engines harder, was the logical choice. Especially with Monaco, Red Bull-Honda's first big chance at a victory together, just around the corner.

Honda's big question mark is reliability, so this is an opportunity to benchmark the progress in that department. Pushing the engines more to the maximum in race trim provides a performance gain even though the upgrade was not power-oriented, contrary to inaccurate rumours of a 20bhp increase.

There were no problems with the introduction of the new engine, which played no part in the driveshaft failure that caused Gasly to retire in Baku, although Honda F1 technical director Toyoharu Tanabe says it still needs to "learn a little bit more about Spec 2" to correct the calibration now it has run on-track.

The wider impact of the early upgrade will only be felt in the longer-term. Negatively, it will come in the form of grid penalties, with its rivals generally waiting until the Canadian Grand Prix - twice as long as Honda lasted this year - to introduce an upgrade. But in terms of positive consequences, Red Bull and Honda will expect a bigger pay-off.

Any problems that arise between now and the end of the season may test the patience of both parties

Given the first upgrade prioritised reliability, it is natural to expect Honda to seek greater performance gains with subsequent upgrades.

"I hope for a bigger gain, but I don't know now," says Tanabe. "We work hard to make performance, but performance and reliability are always balanced. In reality we are still behind. Of course we need to make progress to make it the same, or take over the other competitors."

Honda faces a cat-and-mouse game over the remainder of the season. Ferrari and Mercedes will introduce upgrades of their own that will likely move the goalposts. However, the early upgrade opens the door to a fourth engine at the end of the year - which means there is the prospect of three upgrades this season, compared to only two for its rivals.

"In reality it's a little bit early to introduce the second power unit, regardless of spec," Tanabe admits. "It means we need to think about the future plan, including spec updates and how many power units we will use this season. We need to discuss with the teams. Also, I need to check with Sakura and Milton Keynes on the progress with development, and then we will decide."

Any problems that arise between now and the end of the season may test the patience of both parties, particularly if any setbacks threaten Red Bull's prospects at more favourable circuits, such as Singapore or Mexico.

But committing to a further upgrade when the fourth engine is introduced later in the year would be a bigger justification for grid penalties than simply fitting fresh engines without trialling new developments. It would also be a key step towards putting Red Bull and Honda in the position to mount a world title bid in 2020.

That goal is only achievable through progress. Horner believes Red Bull and Honda have already closed the gap to Mercedes and Ferrari since the start of 2019, and the numbers back up that claim.

Verstappen has been Red Bull's benchmark driver so far in qualifying. As the circuit lengths differ, the fairest way to compare qualifying performances is the deficit expressed in terms of percentage.

He was 1.036% from pole in Australia, and had a 1.008% deficit in Bahrain.

However, after discovering a "mechanical" set-up error in Bahrain, Verstappen's deficit dropped to 0.592% in China, despite not setting a second lap in Q3.

In Azerbaijan, the gap was the smallest so far at 0.571%. And that was despite Verstappen running out of sync in Q3, not having a tow, and Baku being so power-sensitive. It is a very vivid representation of Honda's development since a very tricky Azerbaijan GP 12 months ago, and Red Bull-Honda's progress as a partnership in 2019.

What is vital for both is that introducing Spec 2 so early facilitates a bigger leap at the end of the year. Then, if Honda executes its developments successfully, the puzzle might be finally nearing completion.

"We were always planning to take more than three engines this year and for them to catch up, they have to push the boundaries," says Horner. "That's exactly what we're doing."

Any development war in F1 requires long-term planning, and winning it takes time. Red Bull and Honda have eyes well beyond the pain they will take at some point this year because of the early upgrade.

If it facilitates further progress in 2019, and a bigger step towards the end goal next year, both parties will agree that pain is worth it.