Jon Noble: The real choice Red Bull has to make about Perez’s F1 future

Just after qualifying for the British Grand Prix, and inside Red Bull’s tyre storage area underneath its trackside offices, senior engineers were spotted in what looked like an animated conversation with team principal Christian Horner.

The specifics of their chat is known only to them. But sources have suggested that Horner was made fully aware of a growing feeling within the team that, after another qualifying flop for Sergio Perez as he spun off into the gravel at Copse and looked like he was heading to another non-points weekend, the team’s constructors’ championship situation was now a serious cause for concern.

The message appeared to be that if something did not change within the team – to turn Red Bull from an effective one-man scoring machine into a two-car operation like its rivals – then there was a serious risk of the door being open for someone else to come through and end the year on top. Where once Red Bull had appeared to be comfortably strolling towards another championship double, now the threat from the others was something to no longer be ignored.

Sure, it has been helped hugely by Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes all being stronger at different times to spread their points-scoring capabilities, but the current trajectory has still put others on an alarming glidepath. Indeed, if we reflect on the form over the last five races, then it becomes obvious that – while Verstappen continues to open up his advantage in the drivers’ championship – the momentum has shifted in the team battle.

Since the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix (so counting Monaco, Canada, Spain, Austria and Britain), Red Bull has scored 105 points. Ferrari has just 80 to its name, but McLaren has brought home 141 and Mercedes 142.

So even if things continue like they have recently – and this could be a conservative outlook considering how much progress Mercedes has made and that at some point McLaren is going to turn the corner on its errors – that equates to Red Bull losing more than seven points per race. Based on there being 12 races remaining, it puts McLaren (78 points behind) in striking distance – and definitely within the range where Red Bull engineers, who furiously pore over such data like this, feel that something has to change.

Horner has acknowledged Red Bull cannot let Perez's form continue as it will risk losing the F1 world constructors' battle

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

This is why the issue currently surrounding Perez is not actually just about finding the best route to help him rediscover his form, or if Daniel Ricciardo or Liam Lawson could potentially be better options. The real choice is whether or not Red Bull really wants to guarantee it wins this year’s constructors’ championship.

As Horner readily admitted on Sunday night after the British Grand Prix, Perez’s contribution of 11 points in five races (and 15 points in six), is “unsustainable” for a squad battling for title glory.

Indeed, even Red Bull’s rivals think that the fight for the constructors’ championship this year ultimately depends on what happens with the team’s second car. McLaren CEO Zak Brown said at Silverstone: “I think it's going to be dependent upon Perez at the end of the day. You've just got to assume Max is going to be first, second or third at every race the balance of the year and probably more first than thirds.

“Sergio underperforming is what's opening the window for us. I think if we have the same points gained we've had the last six races, over the balance of the year, we'd get the job done.”

Perez knows how crucial the next fortnight is for his future, and it will be very much a case of sink or swim

It is not yet D-day for Red Bull to decide how best it wants to win the constructors’ championship, but the moment is approaching fast.

The aspects of the performance-related clause in Perez’s contract in relation to the summer break have been widely reported, and it is unlikely that Red Bull will take any action before then – because it still hopes that the Mexican can find something to help him regain where he was at the start of the campaign.

But the team’s decision-making process could be influenced later this week if Lawson’s filming day/aero test in the RB20 at Silverstone offers signs that the New Zealander could have what it takes to handle a step up to the main team. The test run may be only 200km, but just as Red Bull was able to do with Ricciardo last year in the post-British GP Pirelli test, it is more than enough to provide data that will tell the team whether Lawson is a serious candidate or not.

With that Lawson knowledge in its back pocket, the onus will then be on Perez to prove himself on track in Hungary and Belgium. And that proof means more than being within a specific time range of Verstappen – it means bringing home a bunch of points that shows he has turned the corner.

Lawson's RB20 test could provide Red Bull with the answer to whether is he ready to replace Perez

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Helping his chances will be in getting hold of the new RB20 floor that Verstappen got to run at the British Grand Prix – although there remains some intrigue about just how much of a step it has brought. Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko, speaking to Sky Germany after qualifying, said it was worth “six points [of downforce], and that made up about half a tenth.”

But Horner, when asked to verify those numbers, responded: “How would Helmut know?” Pushed on it being a sign of the team’s progress tailing off, Horner said: “Firstly I think your figure is incorrect. It’s no secret that we have less development time than the others and we’re at the top of the curve, so you’re into diminishing returns.”

Perez knows how crucial the next fortnight is for his future, and it will be very much a case of sink or swim. Delivering the points that Red Bull needs to consolidate its position in the constructors’ championship may be enough. So even if he does not get within 100 points of Verstappen before the summer break, two strong finishes may make Red Bull feel that he remains the team’s best hope for the rest of the year.

But if he stumbles, and if McLaren or Mercedes make more gains to narrow that gap, then Red Bull will have no choice but to make a change.

Sentimentality and loyalty will have to go out the window. Running an F1 team is not about being a nice guy, it’s about winning. Perez must absorb all that pressure over the next races and somehow has to unlock performance that simply has not been there for weeks.

"I know where I am in terms of the contract, I cannot let it be a distraction," he declared after the British GP. "I need to focus on the next two weekends, which are the priority, and together with the team get out of this difficult period."

The question for Red Bull is ultimately whether it feels getting out of this difficult period is a solution that features Perez. Some already think it does not.

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Can Perez save himself at Red Bull?

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images