The practice signs that give Mercedes a key edge heading into F1's Abu Dhabi finale

The Jeddah race just gone was shocking and unpredictable. The signs from the opening two practice sessions at Formula 1’s 2021 season finale suggest things in Abu Dhabi are as anticipated and familiar: there is almost nothing to separate the championship’s two leading teams heading into the last race.

But, intriguingly, based on the times logged and comments made in and after FP2 on Friday, the strengths/weaknesses at Red Bull and Mercedes are so far apparently exactly the reverse of how things turned out in Saudi Arabia. That is, this time, Mercedes currently has the edge over a single lap, but Red Bull is stronger in race trim.

So, does that mean it's advantage Red Bull and Max Verstappen? As ever in F1, it’s not that simple…

FP2 overall order

In the overall classification in FP2 (above), the only practice session this weekend that really matters given it’s the sole running to take place at the same time as the twilight-setting for both qualifying and the race, Lewis Hamilton led the way.

He did so over Esteban Ocon, who impressed to make a strong start for Alpine in the final chapter of its fight with AlphaTauri over fifth place in the constructors’ standings (see below). This comes a week after his cameo in the ugly victory scrap between the title contenders in Jeddah.

On their respective fastest laps in FP2, data Autosport has seen tracks Ocon gaining time over Hamilton on every straight at Yas Marina, which indicates he may have been running in a higher power mode. Nevertheless, paddock sources suggest that Alpine’s pace is genuinely strong at this venue.

Esteban Ocon, Alpine A521

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Comparing Hamilton and Verstappen, who ended up 0.641s adrift of the world champion in third in FP2, the pair were pretty much level-pegging in straightline performance – with Verstappen running Red Bull’s higher downforce rear wing.

Mercedes gained its time in the Turns 6/7 chicane that separates the track’s two main straights, as well at the tricky Turn 13 left directly under the W hotel, where Nicholas Latifi crashed in second practice.

But Mercedes was making its biggest gains at the new, banked Turn 9 long left, as well as at the final corner – where track limits could well be a key point of controversy come qualifying, as the slightest slip beyond the white line exiting the 90-degree right hander will result in a deleted time (and that of the next lap too).

What should alarm Mercedes is that Verstappen set a medium tyre average that was one-second quicker than its best (from Hamilton), albeit on a stint that was eight laps shorter

The good news for Red Bull is that the gaps between the two squads are likely to close come qualifying, where the team will not have to worry about running its engine in a conservative mode, as may well have been the case in FP2 given the usual practice caveats apply regarding such settings, and with fuel loads too, but also bearing in mind it has a smaller pool of power unit parts available compared to Mercedes.

Plus, Verstappen said “the short runs didn’t go to plan” for his squad in FP2, adding that “we are lacking a bit of pace”. He appeared to be struggling significantly with oversteer at the final corner on his two qualifying simulation efforts.

"We are still learning and understanding a few things," he added. "But I think the long runs were quite a bit more competitive, so of course that's also important."

Mercedes agrees, with its director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin, saying that his team had gone from being not “particularly happy with the single lap work but [a] long run [that] was well balanced” in FP1, to “the single lap coming quite easily but the long run wasn't great and neither driver was particularly happy with the car” in the second session.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Medium average order

The suggestions from Verstappen and Shovlin bear out in the long run averages set on the medium tyres from the late-FP2 long running (above). For a second year in a row these were ended early by a red flag involving Kimi Raikkonen, but on this occasion the 2007 world champion, making his final F1 appearance, crashed out – at the slightly re-profiled Turn 14 left that takes the cars back out from under the hotel that straddles the track in the technical final sector.

Sources suggest that the Mercedes drivers were struggling with understeer throughout their long-runs, where they ended up just behind Sergio Perez’s average on the tyre both teams are likely to run at the start of Sunday’s race.

But what should alarm Mercedes is that Verstappen set a medium tyre average that was one-second quicker than its best (from Hamilton), albeit on a stint that was eight laps shorter and so isn’t included in our comparison above. Verstappen also did a long run on the soft tyres, which showed clear signs of significant degradation.

That’s how things stand right now, as the teams get to work crunching through their gathered data and applying their factory simulator teams to work out where to make final balance changes ahead of qualifying.

But if the Friday trends bear out come the Q1-Q2-Q3 session here on Saturday, then Mercedes would have a key edge.

And that concerns what sort of race Abu Dhabi will serve up after it has essentially been given a new layout – one that is 13s a lap quicker over 16 corners compared to the 21-turn track that had been used since it joined the F1 calendar in 2009.

Surely almost everyone watching on hopes the alterations will have made it easier for the drivers to follow closely and therefore overtake given the tedium this event has typically served up for its grand prix. But the drivers are split on this likelihood now they’ve sampled the new layout from their cockpits.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

“I would say [there are] some increased overtaking opportunities,” said Valtteri Bottas.

“I have my doubts,” said Perez.

Raikkonen, in shock twist, offered rather more words, saying: “We will see. They took one good overtaking opportunity at Turn 9 away. It is good to make a change, but it should have been a lot slower corner [there] because when it is that fast in the corner it is difficult to overtake. Sometimes you wonder what they think when they make these changes, but it is what it is, and it is different.”

Paddock sources suggest that so far, the impact of the track changes on the overtaking possibilities here may well be rather limited. They definitely haven’t made it harder from what has been seen so far – Hamilton said he thinks “it will be better than what we’ve seen in the past” – but as Raikkonen notes, a clear passing place at the end of the second ‘straight’ has been removed. The braking zone for what is now Turn 9 is very short, and it is the same at the new Turn 5 – the now long left-hand hairpin that feeds onto the first long straight early in the second sector.

Both Mercedes and Red Bull have suffered with high-profile punctures in 2021, and if changes are not made to these kerbs for the rest of the weekend, this could yet be a key – shocking – factor in the outcome of the title

But, this corner is very wide and is a deceptively swooping downhill challenge compared to how it appears on TV – based on Autosport’s trackside visit there in the sweltering FP1 session.

When the drivers went for longer runs on higher fuel at the end of that session there were noticeably more mistakes, which would translate into possible passes at Turn 6 should these slips happen on full tanks early in the race.

And Turn 5 could also be crucial if one of the title-contending squads tries to pull off a strategy ambush to win the race (or get its contender ahead of the other for basically any point in the top 10 given they are on the same total in the standings right now).

Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren MCL35M

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

This is because the width of the turn means lines can be varied – we clocked two Red Bulls staying much tighter than the Mercedes cars all through Friday practice at this point – and if one driver has a big tyre offset life-advantage compared to another, they could likely use the possibility of a different approach into the left-hander to pull off a pass.

At this stage, it seems likely that the leading strategy on Sunday will still be a one-stopper – ideally going from the mediums to the hards to have the greatest flexibility in case of a safety car. But if one team needs to roll the dice and go for a two-stopper – a la Barcelona and Paul Ricard or just run long in the second stint as Mercedes did with Hamilton at Austin – the changes at Turn 5 may become very significant indeed because of the passing opportunity it may offer to a driver with massively more grip.

The track alterations also mean there is a lot of new asphalt around the now 3.28-mile layout, which means the teams will have to be careful this doesn’t undo them on tyre preparation in qualifying on the fragile soft come Q3 – as was the case with Mercedes here a year ago – and mean any unexpected wear in the race.

Pirelli has also noted that the exit kerbs at the new Turns 5 and 9 are “most aggressive”, per its motorsport boss Mario Isola, and that it is therefore assessing them, along with race director Michael Masi, with the recent Qatar failures in mind.

As both Mercedes and Red Bull have suffered with high-profile punctures in 2021, if changes are not made to these kerbs for the rest of the weekend, this could yet be a key – shocking – factor in the outcome of the title come Sunday.

And while attention is rightly focused on the battle at the front of the grid, there are three other multi-team scraps down the constructors’ championship order that are worth considering ahead of the season finale.

In the fight for third between Ferrari vs McLaren, which is heavily tilted in favour of the Scuderia, but has Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz Jr separated by just 8.5 points in the drivers’ standings, Ferrari was ahead over a single lap in FP2. But McLaren was quicker over a stint on the mediums.

Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari SF21, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF21

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

It's very close, however, and Ferrari was also a fair chunk ahead over a stint on the softs, which could well be the tyre that both those teams, and the rest of the midfield, run in first stint of the race given the regular challenge of getting through Q2 on the mediums.

In the scrap for fifth between Alpine and AlphaTauri, the former had a very strong FP2. Along with Ocon’s headline pace, both of its cars were actually on course to beat Bottas to fourth in the single-lap stakes were it not for Fernando Alonso's track limits violation out of the final corner on his (deleted) fastest lap.

Alpine also has the edge on a slightly longer race-sim run on the mediums when comparing the two teams on that compound, and it recorded a similar advantage over AlphaTauri on the softs too. All this suggests Red Bull’s sister squad goes into the final sessions of 2021 that matter on the backfoot compared to its closest rival.

At the back, where Williams’ position in eighth place versus Alfa Romeo looks to be very solid – unless Sunday is another race of chaos – Alfa’s strong end to the season continued.

It had a clear advantage over Williams on one-lap pace and over a stint on the mediums. This is mitigated slightly by Alfa's stint length being the joint-shortest (with Haas) late in FP2, while its Friday ended on a big down note with Raikkonen's session-ending shunt in the Turn 14 barriers.

Kimi Raikkonen, Alfa Romeo Racing C41, climbs out of his car after crashing out at the end of FP2

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images